甘肃省食物消费结构的变化对虚拟水消耗的影响
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摘要
本研究对甘肃省2000-2014年居民人均食物虚拟水消耗进行计算。结果表明,甘肃省人均食物虚拟水消耗量从2000-2014年呈上升趋势,很大程度上是因为动物产品的消费量在总的食物消费结构中比重增加。2014年甘肃人均食物虚拟水消耗量是481.83 m3,低于同期的全国人均水平。未来随着经济的发展和居民收入的提高,动物产品消费增加,导致虚拟水消耗增加。若达到《中国居民膳食指南(2016)》要求的膳食平衡标准,未来甘肃省居民年人均食物虚拟水消耗量将增加133.42~423.85 m3,这给原本水资源短缺的甘肃地区带来了重大挑战。基于研究结果,本研究提出通过加强水资源的管理、倡导健康消费和运用虚拟水战略等方式缓解地区水资源压力。
We calculated the virtual water consumption for food production in Gansu Province from 2000 to 2014. The results showed a growing trend in virtual water consumption per capita in Gansu Province,as animal-based product consumption increased with food consumption. The virtual water consumption for food production per capita in Gansu was481. 83 m3 in 2014,which was lower than the national average. As more animal products will be consumed with economic development and increased income of residents,the virtual water consumption for food production will increase in the future. If the 2016 daily dietary guidelines for Chinese residents were reached,virtual water consumption per capita in Gansu will increase from 133. 42 m3 to 423. 85 m3,which will create a water shortage and be a major challenge for Gansu. Based on the results of this study,the possible answers for water shortage in Gansu are improving the management of water resources,improving diet,and using policies such as virtual water strategy.
We calculated the virtual water consumption for food production in Gansu Province from 2000 to 2014. The results showed a growing trend in virtual water consumption per capita in Gansu Province,as animal-based product consumption increased with food consumption. The virtual water consumption for food production per capita in Gansu was481. 83 m3 in 2014,which was lower than the national average. As more animal products will be consumed with economic development and increased income of residents,the virtual water consumption for food production will increase in the future. If the 2016 daily dietary guidelines for Chinese residents were reached,virtual water consumption per capita in Gansu will increase from 133. 42 m3 to 423. 85 m3,which will create a water shortage and be a major challenge for Gansu. Based on the results of this study,the possible answers for water shortage in Gansu are improving the management of water resources,improving diet,and using policies such as virtual water strategy.
引文
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[4]Kastner T,Rivas M J,Koch W,Nonhebel S.Global changes in diets and the consequences for land requirements for food.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2012,109(18):6868-6872.
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[6]Allan J A.Virtual water:A long term solution for water short Middle Eastern economies?Occasional Paper 3.London:School of Oriental and African Studies(SOAS),University of London,1997.
[7]Chapagain A K,Hoekstra A Y.Virtual water trade:A quantification of virtual water flows between nations in relation to international crop trade.The Journal of Organic Chemistry,2003,11(7):835-855.
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[17]张蕾.中国虚拟水和水足迹区域差异研究.大连:辽宁师范大学硕士学位论文,2009.Zhang L.Study on the regional differences of the efficiency of the virtual water and water footprint in China.Master Thesis.Dalian:Liaoning Normal University,2009.(in Chinese)
[18]程国栋.虚拟水:中国水资源安全战略的新思路.中国科学院院刊,2003,18(4):260-265.Cheng G D.Virtual water:A strategic instrument to achieve water security.Journal of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2003,18(4):260-265.(in Chinese)
[19]刘俊国,曾昭,赵乾斌,马坤,臧传富,译.水足迹评价手册.北京:科学出版社,2012:143.Liu J G,Zeng Z,Zhao Q B,Ma K,Zang C F,translation.The Water Footprint Assessment Manual:Setting the Global Standard.Beijing:Science Press,2012:143.(in Chinese)
[20]Sun S,Wang Y,Wang F,Liu J,Luan X B,Li X L,Zhou T W,Wu P T.Alleviating pressure on water resources:A new approach could be attempted.Scientific Reports,2015,5:14006.
[21]杨春,韩正清.农产品虚拟水实证研究:基于中国30个省市区主要农作物生产、消费、贸易数据.重庆工商大学学报(社会科学版),2016,33(3):25-31.Yang C,Han Z Q.An empirical study on virtual water for agricultural products:Production,consumption and trading date based on main crops of 30 provinces,cities and districts in China.Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University(Social Sciences Edition),2016,33(3):25-31.(in Chinese)
[22]田甜,唐增,孙廷艳.中国不同地区食物消费对土地资源需求的影响研究.草业学报,2017,26(2):53-60.Tian T,Tang Z,Sun T Y.Land requirements for food in different regions of China.Acta Prataculturae Sinica,2017,26(2):53-60.(in Chinese)
[23]马云倩,徐海泉,郭燕枝.中国居民食物消费结构变化及未来发展政策建议.中国食物与营养,2016,22(11):46-50.Ma Y Q,Xu H Q,Guo Y Z.Development of chinese residents’food consumption structure and future development policy suggestions.Food and Nutrition in China,2016,22(11):46-50.(in Chinese)
[24]吴兆丹,赵敏,Lall U.基于多区域投入产出的我国省区虚拟水流动格局研究.河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016,18(6):62-69.Wu Z D,Zhao M,Lall U.Pattern of provincial virtual water flow in China based on multi-regional input-output analysis.Journal of Hohai University(Philosophy and Social Sciences),2016,18(6):62-69.(in Chinese)
[2]Allan J A.Virtual water:A strategic resource global solutions to regional deficits.Ground Water,1998,36(4):545-546.
[3]Turton A R,Moodley S,Goldblatt M,Meissner R.An analysis of the role of virtual water in Southern Africa in meeting water scarcity:An applied research and capacity building project.Johannesburg:Group for Environment Monitoring(GEM)and IUCN(NETCAB).Johannesburg,2000:2-8.
[4]Kastner T,Rivas M J,Koch W,Nonhebel S.Global changes in diets and the consequences for land requirements for food.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2012,109(18):6868-6872.
[5]Allan J A.Fortunately there are substitutes for water otherwise our hydro-political futures would be impossible.//Conference on Priorities for Water Resources Allocation&Management:Natural Resources&Engineering Advisers Conference.London:Overseas Development Administration,1993.
[6]Allan J A.Virtual water:A long term solution for water short Middle Eastern economies?Occasional Paper 3.London:School of Oriental and African Studies(SOAS),University of London,1997.
[7]Chapagain A K,Hoekstra A Y.Virtual water trade:A quantification of virtual water flows between nations in relation to international crop trade.The Journal of Organic Chemistry,2003,11(7):835-855.
[8]徐中民,龙爱华,张志强.虚拟水的理论方法及在甘肃省的应用.地理学报,2003,58(6):861-869.Xu Z M,Long A H,Zhang Z Q.Virtual water consumption calculation and analysis of Gansu Province in 2000.Geography Journal,2003,58(6):861-869.(in Chinese)
[9]尚海洋,徐中民.民勤县虚拟水及虚拟水战略研究.开发研究,2008(6):48-52.Shang H Y,Xu Z M.Virtual water and virtual water strategy in Minqin.Research on Development,2008(6):48-52.(in Chinese)
[10]龙爱华,徐中民,张志强,苏志勇.甘肃省2000年水资源足迹的初步估算.资源科学,2005,27(3):123-129.Long A H,Xu Z M,Zhang Z Q,Su Z Y.Primary estimation of water footprint of Gansu Province in 2000.Resources Science,2005,27(3):123-129.(in Chinese)
[11]秦文彦,唐珍珍,秦丽杰.长春市膳食水足迹研究.环境科学与管理,2013(10):63-68.Qin W Y,Tang Z Z,Qin L J.Dietary water footprint in Changchun City.Environmental Science and Management,2013(10):63-68.(in Chinese)
[12]中华人民共和国国家统计局.各省统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,1980-2010.National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.Statistical Yearbook of Provinces.Beijing:China Statistics Press,1980-2010.(in Chinese)
[13]王新华,徐中民,李应海.甘肃省2003年的水足迹评价.自然资源学报,2005,20(6):909-915.Wang X H,Xu Z M,Li Y H.A rough estimate of water footprint of Gansu Province in 2003.Journal of Natural Nesources,2005,20(6):909-915.(in Chinese)
[14]甘肃省水利厅.2013年甘肃省水资源公报.(2014-06-01)[2016-03-01]http://www.gssgj.com/content/2016-03-01/846.html.The Department of Water Resource of Gansu Province.Gansu Water Resources Bulletin 2013.(2014-06-01)[2016-03-01]http://www.gssgj.com/content/2016-03-01/846.html.(in Chinese)
[15]中国养殖业可持续发展战略研究项目组.中国养殖业可持续发展战略研究.北京:中国农业出版社,2013.Research Group of Sustainable Development Strategy of Chinese Aquaculture Industry.Research on Sustainable Development Strategy of China’s Aquaculture Industry.Beijing:China Agriculture Press,2013.(in Chinese)
[16]中国营养学会.中国居民膳食指南(2016).北京:人民教育出版社,2016.Chinese Nutrition Society.Chinese Dietary Guidelines(2016).Beijing:People’s Education Press,2016.(in Chinese)
[17]张蕾.中国虚拟水和水足迹区域差异研究.大连:辽宁师范大学硕士学位论文,2009.Zhang L.Study on the regional differences of the efficiency of the virtual water and water footprint in China.Master Thesis.Dalian:Liaoning Normal University,2009.(in Chinese)
[18]程国栋.虚拟水:中国水资源安全战略的新思路.中国科学院院刊,2003,18(4):260-265.Cheng G D.Virtual water:A strategic instrument to achieve water security.Journal of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2003,18(4):260-265.(in Chinese)
[19]刘俊国,曾昭,赵乾斌,马坤,臧传富,译.水足迹评价手册.北京:科学出版社,2012:143.Liu J G,Zeng Z,Zhao Q B,Ma K,Zang C F,translation.The Water Footprint Assessment Manual:Setting the Global Standard.Beijing:Science Press,2012:143.(in Chinese)
[20]Sun S,Wang Y,Wang F,Liu J,Luan X B,Li X L,Zhou T W,Wu P T.Alleviating pressure on water resources:A new approach could be attempted.Scientific Reports,2015,5:14006.
[21]杨春,韩正清.农产品虚拟水实证研究:基于中国30个省市区主要农作物生产、消费、贸易数据.重庆工商大学学报(社会科学版),2016,33(3):25-31.Yang C,Han Z Q.An empirical study on virtual water for agricultural products:Production,consumption and trading date based on main crops of 30 provinces,cities and districts in China.Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University(Social Sciences Edition),2016,33(3):25-31.(in Chinese)
[22]田甜,唐增,孙廷艳.中国不同地区食物消费对土地资源需求的影响研究.草业学报,2017,26(2):53-60.Tian T,Tang Z,Sun T Y.Land requirements for food in different regions of China.Acta Prataculturae Sinica,2017,26(2):53-60.(in Chinese)
[23]马云倩,徐海泉,郭燕枝.中国居民食物消费结构变化及未来发展政策建议.中国食物与营养,2016,22(11):46-50.Ma Y Q,Xu H Q,Guo Y Z.Development of chinese residents’food consumption structure and future development policy suggestions.Food and Nutrition in China,2016,22(11):46-50.(in Chinese)
[24]吴兆丹,赵敏,Lall U.基于多区域投入产出的我国省区虚拟水流动格局研究.河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016,18(6):62-69.Wu Z D,Zhao M,Lall U.Pattern of provincial virtual water flow in China based on multi-regional input-output analysis.Journal of Hohai University(Philosophy and Social Sciences),2016,18(6):62-69.(in Chinese)