基于蒙特卡罗法的轻气炮射击精度评估
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摘要
天基轻气炮因性能稳定、易于小型化等特点为空间攻防及空间碎片主动防护提供了一种更加有效的途径.天基轻气炮完成任务的首要前提是实现对空间高速运动目标的精确打击.为全面、准确地对天基轻气炮射击精度进行评估,首先建立天基轻气炮射击误差源分布模型,确定了射击准确度、密集度、命中概率等评价指标.然后,提出天基轻气炮射击精度评估的一般框架,包括设计仿真打靶试验,通过外弹道轨迹计算脱靶量,对脱靶量数据进行预处理,根据预处理后数据完成准确度、密集度及命中精度估计.最后,根据所设计的框架对高度为10 354 km圆轨道上的目标进行了蒙特卡罗法仿真打靶试验并完成射击精度评估.结果表明在不进行弹丸末制导情况下,射击准确度约为48 m和圆概率误差约为87 m,主要是对非合作目标测定轨引起的误差对射击准确度影响较大,且射程较远导致误差对射击精度的影响被放大.命中概率约为千分之一,且随着目标尺寸增加而增加.
Space-based light gas gun(SLGG) provides a more effective way for space attack and defense and space debris removal due to its stable performance and easy miniaturization. The primary precondition of the SLGG to accomplish the task is to strike the space target accurately. To evaluate the firing accuracy comprehensively and accurately, firstly, the shooting error distribution model is established. Three firing accuracy evaluation factors, including shooting accuracy, dispersion and hit probability are formulated. Then, a general framework, including simulation fire test, data preprocessing, fire accuracy evaluation, is proposed to evaluate SLGG firing accuracy. Finally, firing accuracy evaluation of the target with circular orbit at the height of 10354 km is performed via the designed framework. The results reveal that the firing accuracy is about 48 meters and CEP is about 87 meters under current defined scenarios. The errors are mainly caused by the orbit determination of non-cooperative target. Moreover, the influence of errors on firing accuracy is amplified due to the long range. The hit probability is about one in a thousand,and increases with the increase of target size.
Space-based light gas gun(SLGG) provides a more effective way for space attack and defense and space debris removal due to its stable performance and easy miniaturization. The primary precondition of the SLGG to accomplish the task is to strike the space target accurately. To evaluate the firing accuracy comprehensively and accurately, firstly, the shooting error distribution model is established. Three firing accuracy evaluation factors, including shooting accuracy, dispersion and hit probability are formulated. Then, a general framework, including simulation fire test, data preprocessing, fire accuracy evaluation, is proposed to evaluate SLGG firing accuracy. Finally, firing accuracy evaluation of the target with circular orbit at the height of 10354 km is performed via the designed framework. The results reveal that the firing accuracy is about 48 meters and CEP is about 87 meters under current defined scenarios. The errors are mainly caused by the orbit determination of non-cooperative target. Moreover, the influence of errors on firing accuracy is amplified due to the long range. The hit probability is about one in a thousand,and increases with the increase of target size.
引文
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[2]朱玉荣,张向荣,邵贤忠,等.Φ100/30 mm口径二级轻气炮研制[J].实验力学,2010,25(3):331-338.ZHU Y R, ZHANG X R, SHAO X Z, et al. On the de-velopment of aΦ100/30mm-caliber gas-driven two-stage light gas gun[J]. Journal of Experimental Mechanics,2010,25(3):331-338.
[3]柏劲松,王翔,华劲松,等.气炮发射获得超高速碰撞器的数值模拟研究进展[J].中国科学:物理学,2014(5):547-556.BAI Jingsong,WANG Xiang, HUA Jingsong. The gas gun launch advances in numerical simulation of hypervelocity impact[J]. Scientia Sinica Pysica, 2014,44(5):547-556.
[4]王东方,肖伟科,庞宝君. NASA二级轻气炮设备简介[J].气动实验与测量控制,2014(4):99-104.WANG D F, XIAO W K, PANG B J. A brief introduction on NASA's two stage light gas guns[J].气动实验与测量控制,2014(4):99-104.
[5]张治彬,李新洪,安继萍.新型空间碎片清除平台发射诸元确定及仿真[J].火力与指挥控制,2018,待发表.ZHANG Z B, LI X H, An J P. Determination and simulation of the firing data of a new space debris removal platform[J]. Fire Control and Command Control, 2018.
[6]安继萍,李新洪,张治彬,等.天基轻气炮发射清除低轨碎片方案及关键技术分析[J].航天器环境工程,2018,35(1):32-36.AN J P, LI X H, ZHANG Z B, ZHANG H. Analysis of LEO debris removal by space-based light gas gun and key technologies[J]. Spacecraft Environment Engineering, 2018, 35(1):32-36.
[7] JABLONSKI M,SPROUL M,MARTIN K,et al. Uncertainty quantification of a small arms fire control system[C]//Reliability and Maintainability Symposium.New York:IEEE, 2017:1-6.
[8]WANG Y Y, YANG G 1, YAN D C, et al. Comprehensive assessment algorithm for calculating CEP of positioning accuracy[J]. Measurement,2014,47(1):255-263.
[9]宋天莉,安维廉,王书宁.三维射击精度的Winterbottom逼近[J].系统仿真学报,2010,22(3):554-557.SONG T L, AN W L, WANG S N. Winterbottom approximation for accuracy evaluation in three dimensions[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2010,22(3):554-557.
[10] HSU D Y, Probability of hitting a specified target regionwith three-dimensional correlated random variables and aim point offset from the target[C]//Position Location and Navigation Symposium. New York:IEEE, 2002:113-119.
[11] MA P, ZHOU Y C, SHANG X B, et al. Firing accuracy evaluation of electromagnetic railgun based on multicriteria optimal latin hypercube design[J]. IEEE Transactions on Plasma Science, 2017, 45(7):1503-1511.
[12]刘婷.武器系统效能评估中毁伤概率研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2012.LIU T. Research on kill probability in effectiveness assessment of weapon system[D]. Harbin:Harbin Institute of Technology, 2012.
[13]杜梦林.命中精度分析及弹着点复现系统设计[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2014.DU M L. Analysis on hit accuracy and design of the point of impact reproduction system[D]. Harbin:Harbin Institute of Technology, 2014.
[14]薄煜明.现代火控理论与应用基础[M].北京:科学出版社,2012:256-262.BO Y M. Modern fire control theory and application basis[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2012:256-262.
[15]安维廉,宋天莉,徐德坤,等. GJB6289-2008地地弹道式导弹命中精度评定办法[S].北京:总装备部军标出版发行部,2008.AN W L, SONG T L, XU D K, et al. GJB6289-2008Asesssment methods for ground to ground ballistic missile hit accuracy[S]. Beijing:General Armament Department Military Standard Publishing Department, 2008.
[16] SHIELDS M D, ZHANG J. The generalization of Latin hypercube sampling[J]. Reliability Engineering&System Safety, 2016, 148:96-108.
[17] RAZALI N M,WAH Y B. Power comparisons of shapiro-wilk, kolmogorov-smirnov, lilliefors and andersondarling tests[J]. Journal of statistical modeling and analytics, 2011, 2(1):21-33.
[18]藤素珍,冯敬海.数理统计学[M].大连:大连理工出版社,2005:144-167.