港口集装箱作业设备改造的节能减排效益评估
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摘要
为提高评估结果的准确性,基于"作业活动-方式结构-能耗强度-排放因子"方法(ASIF),引入生命周期评价和费效分析理念,建立港口集装箱作业设备改造的节能减排效益评估模型,并以宁波舟山港为例进行实证研究。结果表明,宁波舟山港集装箱作业设备改造年均节能1.911万tce,减排6.175万t CO_2,节省成本0.696亿元。忽略能源油井到油箱排放对CO_2减排量影响较大,会使结果被低估8.65%或高估40.83%。不考虑设备改造成本对成本节省量影响很大(高估59.63%),但不考虑碳交易成本对其影响较小(低估2.30%)。节能量和CO_2减排量受集装箱吞吐量影响较大,其弹性系数≥1;成本节省量受柴油价格变化影响最大,其弹性系数为2.73。研究成果可为合理评估绿色港口促进政策的节能减排效果提供技术支撑。
To improve the estimation accuracy, a set of models based on ASIF(activity-modal structure-energy intensity-emission factor) methodology were established to evaluate the benefits of energy saving and emissions reduction from container handling equipment upgrades at port terminals, by introducing the ideas of life cycle assessment and cost benefit analysis. Next, the Ningbo-Zhoushan Port was taken for case study. The results show that the container handling equipment upgrades at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port can save 19.11 thousand tons of coal equivalent, reduce 61.75 thousand of tons of carbon dioxide, and cut 69.6 millions Yuan RMB of annual average cost. In addition, neglecting energy's well-to-wheel(WTT) emissions would significantly affect the accuracy of CO_2 emissions reduction, with a 8.65% of underestimation or a 40.83% of overestimation. The cost savings would be considerably overestimated by 59.63% without equipment upgrades cost but slightly underestimated by 2.30%without carbon trading cost. Moreover, the potentials of energy saving and CO_2 emissions reduction are greatly influenced by container throughput, and the corresponding elasticity coefficients are larger than or equal to 1,respectively. The maximum potential of cost saving results from diesel's price change, with a elasticity coefficient of 2.73. Consequently, the findings could provide technical support for evaluating the effect of port greening policies on energy saving and emissions reduction.
To improve the estimation accuracy, a set of models based on ASIF(activity-modal structure-energy intensity-emission factor) methodology were established to evaluate the benefits of energy saving and emissions reduction from container handling equipment upgrades at port terminals, by introducing the ideas of life cycle assessment and cost benefit analysis. Next, the Ningbo-Zhoushan Port was taken for case study. The results show that the container handling equipment upgrades at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port can save 19.11 thousand tons of coal equivalent, reduce 61.75 thousand of tons of carbon dioxide, and cut 69.6 millions Yuan RMB of annual average cost. In addition, neglecting energy's well-to-wheel(WTT) emissions would significantly affect the accuracy of CO_2 emissions reduction, with a 8.65% of underestimation or a 40.83% of overestimation. The cost savings would be considerably overestimated by 59.63% without equipment upgrades cost but slightly underestimated by 2.30%without carbon trading cost. Moreover, the potentials of energy saving and CO_2 emissions reduction are greatly influenced by container throughput, and the corresponding elasticity coefficients are larger than or equal to 1,respectively. The maximum potential of cost saving results from diesel's price change, with a elasticity coefficient of 2.73. Consequently, the findings could provide technical support for evaluating the effect of port greening policies on energy saving and emissions reduction.
引文
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[17]上海市发展和改革委员会.关于印发《上海市2017年碳排放配额分配方案》的通知[EB/OL]. 2017[2018-09-06]. http://www.shanghai.gov.cn/nw2/nw2314/nw2319/nw12344/u26aw54538.html
[18]Li L, Fan F, Ma L, et al. Energy utilization evaluation of carbon performance in public projects by FAHP and cloud model[J].Sustainability, 2016, 8(7):630-647
[2]金毅,黄婷,黄细霞.港口节能减排新技术研究实践及展望[J].港口科技, 2015(3):34-38
[3]刘晓蓉,巢志红,朱鹏宇.上海洋山港LNG牵引车节能减排及效益分析研究[J].交通与港航, 2017, 4(3):45-47
[4]徐旭丽.轮胎式集装箱龙门起重机“油改电”方案及其效益[J].集装箱化, 2013(7):20-24
[5]蒋仑.集装箱堆场RTG“油改电”供电改造及效益分析[J].水运工程, 2014(4):103-105
[6]Cho D. Environmental impacts of international shipping:a case study of the port of Busan[R]. Busan:Korea Maritime University, 2010
[7]刘金,黄国健,陈敏,等.轮胎式龙门起重机“油改电”能耗测试及分析[J].起重运输机械, 2015(3):111-114
[8]索晨.集装箱码头碳排放核算及低碳发展方案研究[D].广州:华南理工大学, 2016
[9]李刚,肖丽君.青岛港前湾港区集装箱堆场作业系统节能减排改造工程装卸工艺设计[J].水运工程, 2011(S1):109-112
[10]Yang Y, Chang W. Impacts of electric rubber-tired gantries on green port performance[J]. Research in Transportation Business and Management, 2013(8):67-76
[11]李艳阳,王岩.大连港集装箱码头场桥节能减排的一些做法[J].港口科技, 2010(6):33-36
[12]李娜.龙门吊“油改电”碳排放量核算及其效益分析模型[D].大连:大连海事大学, 2013
[13]陶学宗,吴琴,尹传忠.国际集装箱内陆段铁路运输链碳排放量估算[J].交通运输系统工程与信息, 2018, 18(2):20-26
[14]隽志才.运输技术经济学(第5版)[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2013
[15]Schipper L, Marie-lilliu C. Transportation and CO_2 emissions:flexing the link:a path for the world bank[R]. Washington DC:World Bank Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development, 1999
[16]全国港口标准化技术委员会. GB/T 21339—2008:港口能源消耗统计及分析方法[S].北京:中国标准出版社, 2008
[17]上海市发展和改革委员会.关于印发《上海市2017年碳排放配额分配方案》的通知[EB/OL]. 2017[2018-09-06]. http://www.shanghai.gov.cn/nw2/nw2314/nw2319/nw12344/u26aw54538.html
[18]Li L, Fan F, Ma L, et al. Energy utilization evaluation of carbon performance in public projects by FAHP and cloud model[J].Sustainability, 2016, 8(7):630-647