页岩气藏经验产量递减分析方法研究现状
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摘要
为深入研究和推动经验产量递减分析方法在页岩气藏中的应用,对国内外现有经验产量递减分析方法进行了深入广泛调研。从方法来源、基本模型、典型图版、适用条件、局限性及改进方法等方面,对Arps递减、幂指数递减、扩展指数递减和Duong递减等分析方法进行了详细阐述,同时还给出了今后页岩气藏经验产量递减分析方法的研究重点。研究表明:经验产量递减分析方法都具备产量预测和最终可采储量预测功能,只能对井底流动压力恒定或近似恒定条件下的生产数据进行分析,且要求生产数据连续稳定避免长时间关井。不同经验递减分析方法之间最主要的差异是适用流态不同,其中Arps递减和改进双曲递减仅适用于边界主导流,扩展指数递减和Duong递减适用于线性流,改进Duong递减、幂指数递减和改进幂指数递减适用于线性流和边界主导流。准确识别和划分页岩气井流态是经验产量递减分析方法推广应用的关键。国内页岩气井难以实现井底流动压力恒定或近似恒定的生产方式,如何准确将生产数据校正为定压生产条件下的生产数据是下一步经验产量递减分析方法的研究重点。
The empirical production decline analysis methods inside and outside China were investigated extensively for further understanding these methods and promoting their application in development of shale gas reservoirs. The Arps, power exponential, stretched exponential and Duong decline analysis methods were elaborated in terms of source, decline model, typical curve, application condition, limitation and improved method, and finally the key issues related to empirical production decline analysis methods in future study were proposed. The study results indicate that all the empirical production decline analysis methods are capable of forecasting both production and EUR, but they can only analyze the production data under constant or approximately constant bottom-hole flowing pressure, and require continuous and stable production data without long-term shut-in. The difference in these empirical production decline analysis methods lies in different flow regime. Arps decline model and modified hyperbolic decline model are only available to boundary-dominated flow regime. Stretched exponential decline model and Duong decline model are useful for linear flow regime. Modified Duong decline model, modified power exponential decline model and power exponential decline model are applicable for both linear and boundary-dominated flow regimes. It is critical to identify and classify the flow regime in a shale gas well for application of empirical production decline analysis. In shale gas wells in China, it is hard to keep constant or approximately constant bottom-hole flowing pressure during production, then how to correct such production data to the data under constant or approximately constant bottom-hole flowing pressure is the emphasis in future study on empirical production decline analysis methods.
The empirical production decline analysis methods inside and outside China were investigated extensively for further understanding these methods and promoting their application in development of shale gas reservoirs. The Arps, power exponential, stretched exponential and Duong decline analysis methods were elaborated in terms of source, decline model, typical curve, application condition, limitation and improved method, and finally the key issues related to empirical production decline analysis methods in future study were proposed. The study results indicate that all the empirical production decline analysis methods are capable of forecasting both production and EUR, but they can only analyze the production data under constant or approximately constant bottom-hole flowing pressure, and require continuous and stable production data without long-term shut-in. The difference in these empirical production decline analysis methods lies in different flow regime. Arps decline model and modified hyperbolic decline model are only available to boundary-dominated flow regime. Stretched exponential decline model and Duong decline model are useful for linear flow regime. Modified Duong decline model, modified power exponential decline model and power exponential decline model are applicable for both linear and boundary-dominated flow regimes. It is critical to identify and classify the flow regime in a shale gas well for application of empirical production decline analysis. In shale gas wells in China, it is hard to keep constant or approximately constant bottom-hole flowing pressure during production, then how to correct such production data to the data under constant or approximately constant bottom-hole flowing pressure is the emphasis in future study on empirical production decline analysis methods.
引文
[1]Curtis J B.Fractured shale-gas systems[J].AAPG Bulletin,2002,86(11):1921-1938.
[2]Boyer C,Keischnick J,Lewis R E.Producing gas from its source[J].Oilfield Review,2006,18(3):36-49.
[3]Cremean S P,Kozair G,Smith E C.Gas occurrence in the Devonian shale[C]//SPE7921,presented at the Symposium on low-permeability gas reservoirs,Denver,CO,USA,20 May 1979.
[4]U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA).Review of emerging resources:U.S.shale gas and shale oil plays[R].U.S.Department of Energy,Washington D C,2011.
[5]Curtis J B,Montgomery S L.Recoverable natural gas resource of the United States:summary of recent estimates[J].AAPG Bulletin,2002,86(10):1671-1678.
[6]郭旭升,胡东风,魏志红,李宇平,魏祥峰.涪陵页岩气田的发现与勘探认识[J].中国石油勘探,2016,21(3):24-37.Guo Xusheng,Hu Dongfeng,Wei Zhihong,Li Yuping,Wei Xiangfeng.Discovery and exploration of Fuling shale gas field[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2016,21(3):24-37.
[7]谢军,张浩淼,佘朝毅,李其荣,范宇,杨扬.地质工程一体化在长宁国家级页岩气示范区中的实践[J].中国石油勘探,2017,22(1):21-28.Xie Jun,Zhang Haomiao,She Chaoyi,Li Qirong,Fan Yu,Yang Yang.Practice of geology-engineering integration in Changning State Shale Gas Demonstration Area[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2017,22(1):21-28.
[8]董大忠,王玉满,李新景,邹才能,管全中,张晨晨,等.中国页岩气勘探开发新突破及发展前景思考[J].天然气工业,2016,36(1):19-32.Dong Dazhong,Wang Yuman,Li Xinjing,Zou Caineng,Guan Quanzhong,Zhang Chenchen,et al.Breakthrough and prospect of shale gas exploration and development in China[J].Natural Gas Industry,2016,36(1):19-32.
[9]荆铁亚,杨光,林拓,陈亮,王金意.中国中上元古界页岩气地质特征及有利区预测[J].特种油气藏,2015,22(6):5-9.Jing Tieya,Yang Guang,Lin Tuo,Chen Liang,Wang Jinyi.Geological characteristics and prospective zone prediction of Meso-Epiproterozoic shale gas in China[J].Special Oil&Gas Reservoirs,2015,22(6):5-9.
[10]梁兴,王高成,张介辉,舒红林,刘臣,李兆丰,等.昭通国家级示范区页岩气一体化高效开发模式及实践启示[J].中国石油勘探,2017,22(1):29-37.Liang Xing,Wang Gaocheng,Zhang Jiehui,Shu Honglin,Liu Chen,Li Zhaofeng,et al.High-efficiency integrated shale gas development model of Zhaotong National Demonstration Zone and its practical enlightenment[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2017,22(1):29-37.
[11]许坤,李丰,姚超,吕雷.我国页岩气开发示范区进展与启示[J].石油科技论坛,2016,35(1):44-49.Xu Kun,Li Feng,Yao Chao,Lv Lei.Progress in China’s demonstration zones of shale gas development[J].Oil Forum,2016,35(1):44-49.
[12]吴奇,梁兴,鲜成钢,李峋.地质—工程一体化高效开发中国南方海相页岩气[J].中国石油勘探,2015,20(4):1-23.Wu Qi,Liang Xing,Xian Chenggang,Li Xun.Geoscience-toproduction integration ensures effective and efficient south China marine shale gas development[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2015,20(4):1-23.
[13]Tissot B P.Recent advances in petroleum geochemistry applied to hydrocarbon exploration[J].AAPG Bulletin,1984,68(5):545-563.
[14]Guidry K,Luffel D,Curtis J.Development of laboratory and petrophysical techniques for evaluating shale reservoirs[R].GRI-95/0496,Gas Research Institute,Chicago,IL,279,1996.
[15]Okouma V,Guillot F,Sarfare M,Sen V,Ilk D,Blasingame T A.Estimated ultimate recovery(EUR)as a function of production practices in the Haynesville shale[C]//SPE147623,presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,Denver,Colorado,USA,30 October-2 November2011.
[16]Yu S Y.Best practice of using empirical methods for production forecast and EUR estimation in tight/shale gas reservoirs[C]//SPE167118,presented at the SPE Unconventional Resources Conference,Calgary,Alberta,Canada,5-7 November 2013.
[17]ValkóP P.Assigning value to stimulation in the Barnett shale:a simultaneous analysis of 7000 plus production histories and well completion records[C]//SPE119369,presented at the 2009 SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference,Woodlands,Texas,USA,19-21 January 2009.
[18]Das M,Jonk R.Effect of multicomponent adsorption/desorption behavior on gas-in-place(GIP)and estimated ultimate recovery(EUR)in shale gas systems[C]//SPE159558,presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,San Antonio,Texas,USA,8-10 October 2012.
[19]Nobakht M,Clarkson C R,Kaviani D.New type curves for analyzing horizontal well with multiple fractures in shale gas reservoirs[C]//SPE149397,presented at the Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference,Calgary,Alberta,Canada,15-17 November 2011.
[20]Xie X Y,Fairbanks M D,Fox K S,Koinis R L.A new method for earlier and more accurate EUR prediction of Haynesville shale gas wells[C]//SPE159723,presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,San Antonio,Texas,USA,8-10 October 2012.
[21]Xu B X,Haghighi M,Cooke D,Li X F.Production data analysis in Eagle Ford shale gas reservoir[C]//SPE153072,presented at the SPE/EAGE European Unconventional Resources Conference and Exhibition,Vienna,Austria,20-22 March 2012.
[22]Arnold R,Anderson R.Preliminary report on the Coalinga oil district,Fresno and Kings Counties,California[J].USGS Bulletin,1908,357:79-80.
[23]Johnson R H,Bollens A L.The loss ratio method of extrapolating oil well decline curves[J].Transactions of The AIME,1927,77(1):771-778.
[24]Arps J J.Analysis of decline curves[J].Transactions of The AIME,1945,160(1):228-247.
[25]Laustsen D.Practical decline analysis:Part 1-uses and misuses[J].Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology,1996,35(9):247-248.
[26]Robertson S.Generalized hyperbolic equation[J].SPE General,1998.
[27]Ilk D,Perego A D,Rushing J A,Blasingame T A.Integrating multiple production analysis techniques to assess tight gas sand reserves:defining a new paradigm for industry best practices[C]//SPE114947,presented at the 2008 Gas Technology Symposium,Calgary,AB,Canada,17-19 June 2008.
[28]Ilk D,Rushing J A,Perego A D,Blasingame T A.Exponential vs.hyperbolic decline in tight gas sands:understanding the origin and implications for reserve estimates using Arps'decline curves[C]//SPE116731,presented at the2008 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,Denver,Colorado,USA,21-24 September 2008.
[29]Mattar L,Moghadam S.Modified power law exponential decline for tight gas[C]//PETSOC-2009-198,presented at the Canadian International Petroleum Conference,Calgary,Alberta,Canada,16-18 June 2009.
[30]Wattenbarger R A,EI-Banbi A H,Villegas M E,Maggard J B.Production analysis of linear flow into fractured tight gas wells[C]//SPE 39931,presented at the 1998 SPE Rocky Mountain Regional/Low-Permeability Reservoirs Symposium,Denver,Colorado,USA,5-8 April 1998.
[31]Fetkovich M.Decline curve analysis using type curves[J].Journal of Petroleum Technology,1980,32(6):1065-1077.
[32]ValkóP P,Lee W J.A better way to forecast production from unconventional gas wells[C]//SPE134231,presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,Florence,Italy,19-22 September 2010.
[33]Duong A N.Rate decline analysis for fracture-dominated shale reservoirs[J].SPE Reservoir Evaluation&Engineering,2011,14(3):377-387.
[34]Duong A N.Rate Decline analysis for fracture dominated shale reservoirs:Part2[C]//SPE171610,presented at the SPE/CSUR Unconventional Resources Conference,Calgary,Alberta,Canada,30 September-2 October 2014.
[35]Chen C C,Raghavan R.A multiply-fractured horizontal well in a rectangular drainage region[J].SPE Journal,1997,2(4):455-465.
[36]Nobakht M,Clarkson C R,Kaviani D.New type curves for analyzing horizontal well with multiple fractures in shale gas reservoirs[C]//SPE149397,presented at the Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference,Calgary,Alberta,Canada,15-17 November 2011.
[37]Li F,Fang L,Lindsay G J,Thompson J W,Robinson J R.The bottom-line of horizontal well production decline in the Barnett shale[C]//SPE141263,presented at the SPE Production and Operations Symposium,Oklahoma City,Oklahoma,USA,27-29 March 2011.
[38]Yuan H,Bhuiyan M H,Xu J F.A case study to evaluate shale gas performance models with actual well production data[C]//SPE162598,presented at the SPE Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference,Calgary,Alberta,Canada,30 October-1 November 2012.
[2]Boyer C,Keischnick J,Lewis R E.Producing gas from its source[J].Oilfield Review,2006,18(3):36-49.
[3]Cremean S P,Kozair G,Smith E C.Gas occurrence in the Devonian shale[C]//SPE7921,presented at the Symposium on low-permeability gas reservoirs,Denver,CO,USA,20 May 1979.
[4]U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA).Review of emerging resources:U.S.shale gas and shale oil plays[R].U.S.Department of Energy,Washington D C,2011.
[5]Curtis J B,Montgomery S L.Recoverable natural gas resource of the United States:summary of recent estimates[J].AAPG Bulletin,2002,86(10):1671-1678.
[6]郭旭升,胡东风,魏志红,李宇平,魏祥峰.涪陵页岩气田的发现与勘探认识[J].中国石油勘探,2016,21(3):24-37.Guo Xusheng,Hu Dongfeng,Wei Zhihong,Li Yuping,Wei Xiangfeng.Discovery and exploration of Fuling shale gas field[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2016,21(3):24-37.
[7]谢军,张浩淼,佘朝毅,李其荣,范宇,杨扬.地质工程一体化在长宁国家级页岩气示范区中的实践[J].中国石油勘探,2017,22(1):21-28.Xie Jun,Zhang Haomiao,She Chaoyi,Li Qirong,Fan Yu,Yang Yang.Practice of geology-engineering integration in Changning State Shale Gas Demonstration Area[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2017,22(1):21-28.
[8]董大忠,王玉满,李新景,邹才能,管全中,张晨晨,等.中国页岩气勘探开发新突破及发展前景思考[J].天然气工业,2016,36(1):19-32.Dong Dazhong,Wang Yuman,Li Xinjing,Zou Caineng,Guan Quanzhong,Zhang Chenchen,et al.Breakthrough and prospect of shale gas exploration and development in China[J].Natural Gas Industry,2016,36(1):19-32.
[9]荆铁亚,杨光,林拓,陈亮,王金意.中国中上元古界页岩气地质特征及有利区预测[J].特种油气藏,2015,22(6):5-9.Jing Tieya,Yang Guang,Lin Tuo,Chen Liang,Wang Jinyi.Geological characteristics and prospective zone prediction of Meso-Epiproterozoic shale gas in China[J].Special Oil&Gas Reservoirs,2015,22(6):5-9.
[10]梁兴,王高成,张介辉,舒红林,刘臣,李兆丰,等.昭通国家级示范区页岩气一体化高效开发模式及实践启示[J].中国石油勘探,2017,22(1):29-37.Liang Xing,Wang Gaocheng,Zhang Jiehui,Shu Honglin,Liu Chen,Li Zhaofeng,et al.High-efficiency integrated shale gas development model of Zhaotong National Demonstration Zone and its practical enlightenment[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2017,22(1):29-37.
[11]许坤,李丰,姚超,吕雷.我国页岩气开发示范区进展与启示[J].石油科技论坛,2016,35(1):44-49.Xu Kun,Li Feng,Yao Chao,Lv Lei.Progress in China’s demonstration zones of shale gas development[J].Oil Forum,2016,35(1):44-49.
[12]吴奇,梁兴,鲜成钢,李峋.地质—工程一体化高效开发中国南方海相页岩气[J].中国石油勘探,2015,20(4):1-23.Wu Qi,Liang Xing,Xian Chenggang,Li Xun.Geoscience-toproduction integration ensures effective and efficient south China marine shale gas development[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2015,20(4):1-23.
[13]Tissot B P.Recent advances in petroleum geochemistry applied to hydrocarbon exploration[J].AAPG Bulletin,1984,68(5):545-563.
[14]Guidry K,Luffel D,Curtis J.Development of laboratory and petrophysical techniques for evaluating shale reservoirs[R].GRI-95/0496,Gas Research Institute,Chicago,IL,279,1996.
[15]Okouma V,Guillot F,Sarfare M,Sen V,Ilk D,Blasingame T A.Estimated ultimate recovery(EUR)as a function of production practices in the Haynesville shale[C]//SPE147623,presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,Denver,Colorado,USA,30 October-2 November2011.
[16]Yu S Y.Best practice of using empirical methods for production forecast and EUR estimation in tight/shale gas reservoirs[C]//SPE167118,presented at the SPE Unconventional Resources Conference,Calgary,Alberta,Canada,5-7 November 2013.
[17]ValkóP P.Assigning value to stimulation in the Barnett shale:a simultaneous analysis of 7000 plus production histories and well completion records[C]//SPE119369,presented at the 2009 SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference,Woodlands,Texas,USA,19-21 January 2009.
[18]Das M,Jonk R.Effect of multicomponent adsorption/desorption behavior on gas-in-place(GIP)and estimated ultimate recovery(EUR)in shale gas systems[C]//SPE159558,presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,San Antonio,Texas,USA,8-10 October 2012.
[19]Nobakht M,Clarkson C R,Kaviani D.New type curves for analyzing horizontal well with multiple fractures in shale gas reservoirs[C]//SPE149397,presented at the Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference,Calgary,Alberta,Canada,15-17 November 2011.
[20]Xie X Y,Fairbanks M D,Fox K S,Koinis R L.A new method for earlier and more accurate EUR prediction of Haynesville shale gas wells[C]//SPE159723,presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,San Antonio,Texas,USA,8-10 October 2012.
[21]Xu B X,Haghighi M,Cooke D,Li X F.Production data analysis in Eagle Ford shale gas reservoir[C]//SPE153072,presented at the SPE/EAGE European Unconventional Resources Conference and Exhibition,Vienna,Austria,20-22 March 2012.
[22]Arnold R,Anderson R.Preliminary report on the Coalinga oil district,Fresno and Kings Counties,California[J].USGS Bulletin,1908,357:79-80.
[23]Johnson R H,Bollens A L.The loss ratio method of extrapolating oil well decline curves[J].Transactions of The AIME,1927,77(1):771-778.
[24]Arps J J.Analysis of decline curves[J].Transactions of The AIME,1945,160(1):228-247.
[25]Laustsen D.Practical decline analysis:Part 1-uses and misuses[J].Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology,1996,35(9):247-248.
[26]Robertson S.Generalized hyperbolic equation[J].SPE General,1998.
[27]Ilk D,Perego A D,Rushing J A,Blasingame T A.Integrating multiple production analysis techniques to assess tight gas sand reserves:defining a new paradigm for industry best practices[C]//SPE114947,presented at the 2008 Gas Technology Symposium,Calgary,AB,Canada,17-19 June 2008.
[28]Ilk D,Rushing J A,Perego A D,Blasingame T A.Exponential vs.hyperbolic decline in tight gas sands:understanding the origin and implications for reserve estimates using Arps'decline curves[C]//SPE116731,presented at the2008 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,Denver,Colorado,USA,21-24 September 2008.
[29]Mattar L,Moghadam S.Modified power law exponential decline for tight gas[C]//PETSOC-2009-198,presented at the Canadian International Petroleum Conference,Calgary,Alberta,Canada,16-18 June 2009.
[30]Wattenbarger R A,EI-Banbi A H,Villegas M E,Maggard J B.Production analysis of linear flow into fractured tight gas wells[C]//SPE 39931,presented at the 1998 SPE Rocky Mountain Regional/Low-Permeability Reservoirs Symposium,Denver,Colorado,USA,5-8 April 1998.
[31]Fetkovich M.Decline curve analysis using type curves[J].Journal of Petroleum Technology,1980,32(6):1065-1077.
[32]ValkóP P,Lee W J.A better way to forecast production from unconventional gas wells[C]//SPE134231,presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,Florence,Italy,19-22 September 2010.
[33]Duong A N.Rate decline analysis for fracture-dominated shale reservoirs[J].SPE Reservoir Evaluation&Engineering,2011,14(3):377-387.
[34]Duong A N.Rate Decline analysis for fracture dominated shale reservoirs:Part2[C]//SPE171610,presented at the SPE/CSUR Unconventional Resources Conference,Calgary,Alberta,Canada,30 September-2 October 2014.
[35]Chen C C,Raghavan R.A multiply-fractured horizontal well in a rectangular drainage region[J].SPE Journal,1997,2(4):455-465.
[36]Nobakht M,Clarkson C R,Kaviani D.New type curves for analyzing horizontal well with multiple fractures in shale gas reservoirs[C]//SPE149397,presented at the Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference,Calgary,Alberta,Canada,15-17 November 2011.
[37]Li F,Fang L,Lindsay G J,Thompson J W,Robinson J R.The bottom-line of horizontal well production decline in the Barnett shale[C]//SPE141263,presented at the SPE Production and Operations Symposium,Oklahoma City,Oklahoma,USA,27-29 March 2011.
[38]Yuan H,Bhuiyan M H,Xu J F.A case study to evaluate shale gas performance models with actual well production data[C]//SPE162598,presented at the SPE Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference,Calgary,Alberta,Canada,30 October-1 November 2012.
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