2003-2016年中国华北地区森林火灾时空特征研究
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摘要
进行森林火灾时空特征分析,有利于为预防森林火灾提供科学依据和理论基础。根据林业年鉴数据,对中国华北地区2003-2016年森林火灾的时空分布特征进行研究,在分析中着重考虑群死群伤火灾(HCF)。结果表明:1)我国华北地区森林火灾主要集中于内蒙古自治区与河北省,HCF起数多集中于内蒙古自治区与山西省;2)时空特征方面,火灾起数最高的是内蒙古自治区,其次是河北省和山西省;2003-2011虽年均火灾次数和火场面积较高,但整体呈现下降趋势,2011年后下降趋势更为明显;3)进行聚类分析,按照严重程度由高到低分为3类,其中内蒙古自治区火灾对环境的影响最为明显,一般火灾以及HCF起数较多。华北地区森林火灾与气候变化、人类活动息息相关,具有明显的区域性特征,应加强火源管理及预测工作。
The analysis of the temporal and spatial characteristics of forest fires can provide scientific and theoretical basis for preventing forest fires.Based on the data of forestry yearbook,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of forest fires occurred in Northern China from 2003 to 2016were studied with the emphasis of considering the high-casualty fires(HCFs).The results showed that 1)forest fires in Northern China were mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Hebei,and the HCFs was mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi.2)In terms of the temporal and spatial characteristics,the highest number of forest fires was in Inner Mongolia,followed by Hebei and Shanxi.Although the average annual forest fire number and fire area were higher in 2003-2011,it showed a decline trend in overall,and the decline trend was more obvious after 2011.3)In cluster analysis,according to the fire severity,three categories from high to low were obtained,among which,the forest fires in Inner Mongolia had the most obvious impacts on the environment,and the general fires and HCFs were more frequent.Forest fires in Northern China were closely related to climate changes and human activities and had obvious regional characteristics,therefore fire source management and prediction should be strengthened.
The analysis of the temporal and spatial characteristics of forest fires can provide scientific and theoretical basis for preventing forest fires.Based on the data of forestry yearbook,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of forest fires occurred in Northern China from 2003 to 2016were studied with the emphasis of considering the high-casualty fires(HCFs).The results showed that 1)forest fires in Northern China were mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Hebei,and the HCFs was mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi.2)In terms of the temporal and spatial characteristics,the highest number of forest fires was in Inner Mongolia,followed by Hebei and Shanxi.Although the average annual forest fire number and fire area were higher in 2003-2011,it showed a decline trend in overall,and the decline trend was more obvious after 2011.3)In cluster analysis,according to the fire severity,three categories from high to low were obtained,among which,the forest fires in Inner Mongolia had the most obvious impacts on the environment,and the general fires and HCFs were more frequent.Forest fires in Northern China were closely related to climate changes and human activities and had obvious regional characteristics,therefore fire source management and prediction should be strengthened.
引文
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[8]雷蕾,虞耀,陈勇.我国森林火灾空间分布特征、扑火能力及成因分析[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(6):2539-2541,2590.
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[16]李兴华,任丽媛,刘秀荣.气候变化对内蒙古草原火灾的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(4):129-133.
[17]狄丽颖,张爱国,张艳丽,等.山西省森林火灾的年变化特点和致灾原因分析[J].森林防火,2007(2):19-22.
[18]崔凤儒.承德市森林火灾成因及对策[J].河北林业,2006(1):13.
[19]杨广斌,唐小明,宁晋杰,等.北京市1986-2006年森林火灾的时空分布规律[J].林业科学,2009,45(7):90-95.
[20]周雪.北京城市森林风险评估与管理研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2014.
[21]王凯.北京西山林场不同可燃物类型空间分布及潜在火行为研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2016.
[22]袁来凤.天津市森林防火面临的形势与对策[J].天津农林科技,2003(5):35-37.
[23]苏立娟,何友均,陈绍志.1950-2010年中国森林火灾时空特征及风险分析[J].林业科学,2015,51(1):88-96.SU L J,HE Y J,CHEN S Z.Temporal and spatial characteristics and risk analysis of forest fires in China from 1950to2010[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2015,51(1):88-96.(in Chinese)
[2]田国华,杨松.我国31个地区森林火灾时空分布特征[J].森林防火,2013(2):10-14.
[3]孙玉荣,张贵.基于神经网络的森林火灾危害程度预测研究[J].西北林学院学报,2010,25(3):147-150,162.SUN Y R,ZHANG G.Forecasting study of forest-fire harm degree based on neural network[J].Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2010,25(3):147-150,162.(in Chinese)
[4]王郭社,安春晖.主成分分析法在评价全国火灾形势中的应用研究[J].武警学院学报,2007,23(6):41-45.
[5]刘海生,张鑫磊,宋丽霞.基于统计数据的全国火灾形势综合评价与预测[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(6):56-61.LIU H S,ZHANG X L,SONG L X.Comprehensive evaluation and prediction of fire accidents in China based on statistics[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(6):56-61.(in Chinese)
[6]安振宇,陈云国.基于火灾统计数据的火灾形势综合评价和定量预测[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2006,2(2):35-39.AN Z Y,CHEN Y G.Fire comprehensive evaluation and quantitative prediction based on fire statistic[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2006,2(2):35-39.(in Chinese)
[7]陶玉柱,邸雪颖,金森.我国森林火灾发生的时空规律研究[J].世界林业研究,2013,10(5):75-80.TAO Y Z,DI X Y,JIN S.Research on temporal and spatial distribution of forest fire in China[J].World Forestry Research,2013,10(5):75-80.(in Chinese)
[8]雷蕾,虞耀,陈勇.我国森林火灾空间分布特征、扑火能力及成因分析[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(6):2539-2541,2590.
[9]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2004-2017.
[10]李靖华,郭耀煌.主成分分析用于多指标评价的方法研究-主成分评价[J].管理工程学报,2002,16(1):39-43.
[11]魏鹏,杨松,田国华.基于主成分分析法的全国森林火灾综合评价分析[J].绿色科技,2012(12):40-43.
[12]陈子锦,王福亮,陆守香,等.我国火灾统计数据的聚类分析[J].中国工程科学,2007,9(1):90-92.
[13]李童瑶,陈馨,邓晶,等.基于聚类分析的福建省森林火灾风险区划[J].福建林业科技,2015,42(4):148-152.LI T Y,CHEN X,DENG J,et al.Zoning of forest fire risk grade of Fujian Province based on hierachical clustering analysis[J].Jour.of Fujian Forestry Sci.and Tech.,2015,42(4):148-152.(in Chinese)
[14]庞万才,王桂芝.内蒙古森林火灾及其气候条件分析[J].内蒙古气象,1994(3):22-32.
[15]张成现,贺兴汉.一类最优化问题的树状图解法[J].纺织基础科学学报,1992(4):355-358,364.
[16]李兴华,任丽媛,刘秀荣.气候变化对内蒙古草原火灾的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(4):129-133.
[17]狄丽颖,张爱国,张艳丽,等.山西省森林火灾的年变化特点和致灾原因分析[J].森林防火,2007(2):19-22.
[18]崔凤儒.承德市森林火灾成因及对策[J].河北林业,2006(1):13.
[19]杨广斌,唐小明,宁晋杰,等.北京市1986-2006年森林火灾的时空分布规律[J].林业科学,2009,45(7):90-95.
[20]周雪.北京城市森林风险评估与管理研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2014.
[21]王凯.北京西山林场不同可燃物类型空间分布及潜在火行为研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2016.
[22]袁来凤.天津市森林防火面临的形势与对策[J].天津农林科技,2003(5):35-37.
[23]苏立娟,何友均,陈绍志.1950-2010年中国森林火灾时空特征及风险分析[J].林业科学,2015,51(1):88-96.SU L J,HE Y J,CHEN S Z.Temporal and spatial characteristics and risk analysis of forest fires in China from 1950to2010[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2015,51(1):88-96.(in Chinese)