2008—2017年江阴市传染病预警信号的流行病学特征
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摘要
目的对2008—2017年江阴市传染病预警信号的流行病学特征进行分析,为优化和完善传染病自动预警系统提供科学依据。方法查询传染病自动预警信息系统,分年月、疾病种类、预警类型整理2008—2017年江阴市传染病预警信号的资料,利用描述流行病学方法进行分析。结果 2008—2017年江阴市传染病预警信号共计23种2 272次,年平均预警227.20次。预警信号呈双峰分布,分别是4—7月的主峰和11—12月的次峰。预警信号总数排前5位的传染病依次为手足口病、麻疹、其他感染性腹泻病、流行性腮腺炎和痢疾。预警信号中共发现37起疑似事件,阳性率为1.63%。2016年阳性率最高,为5.00%;2013年最低,为0。2008—2017年预警信号的阳性率差异有统计学意义(χ2=41.85,P<0.01)。预警信号发出后2 h内响应率为91.81%,响应及时率为99.74%。结论 2008—2017年江阴市预警系统运行情况良好,对早期发现传染病异常增多的苗头具有重要意义。但预警信号的及时处理不能被疏忽,这需要提高疫情管理人员的重视程度。
[Objective]To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of early warning signals for infectious diseases in Jiangyin City from 2008-2017, and provide scientific evidences for the optimization and improvement of the automatic early warning system for infectious diseases. [Methods] Searching the automatic early warning information system for infectious diseases, the data of early warning signals for infectious diseases in Jiangyin City from 2008-2017 were sorted according to time, disease category and type of early warning signals and analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method. [Results] A total of 23 categories and 2 272 early warning signals were sent out in Jiangyin during 2008-2017, and the number of the average annual signals was227.20. The early warning signals had two peaks, which distributed in April to July and November to December respectively. The top five infectious diseases in the number of early warning signals were hand-foot-mouth disease, measles, other infectious diarrhea, mumps and dysentery. Among all early warning signals, 37 suspected events were found, and the positive rate was1.63%. During the past decade, the positive rate of 2016(5.00%) was the highest while 2013 was the lowest(0). The difference of positive rate of early warning signals from 2008-2017 were statistically significant(χ2=41.85, P <0.01). After early warning signals were generated, the response rate within two hours was 91.81% and the timeliness rate was 99.74%. [Conclusion] During2008-2017, the early warning system for infectious diseases in Jiangyin operates well, which played an important role in the early detection of abnormal increase of infectious diseases. However, the timely management of early warning signals should not be ignored, which required epidemic administrators to pay attention to this issue.
[Objective]To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of early warning signals for infectious diseases in Jiangyin City from 2008-2017, and provide scientific evidences for the optimization and improvement of the automatic early warning system for infectious diseases. [Methods] Searching the automatic early warning information system for infectious diseases, the data of early warning signals for infectious diseases in Jiangyin City from 2008-2017 were sorted according to time, disease category and type of early warning signals and analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method. [Results] A total of 23 categories and 2 272 early warning signals were sent out in Jiangyin during 2008-2017, and the number of the average annual signals was227.20. The early warning signals had two peaks, which distributed in April to July and November to December respectively. The top five infectious diseases in the number of early warning signals were hand-foot-mouth disease, measles, other infectious diarrhea, mumps and dysentery. Among all early warning signals, 37 suspected events were found, and the positive rate was1.63%. During the past decade, the positive rate of 2016(5.00%) was the highest while 2013 was the lowest(0). The difference of positive rate of early warning signals from 2008-2017 were statistically significant(χ2=41.85, P <0.01). After early warning signals were generated, the response rate within two hours was 91.81% and the timeliness rate was 99.74%. [Conclusion] During2008-2017, the early warning system for infectious diseases in Jiangyin operates well, which played an important role in the early detection of abnormal increase of infectious diseases. However, the timely management of early warning signals should not be ignored, which required epidemic administrators to pay attention to this issue.
引文
[1]刘润友,杨长虹,罗湘蜀,等.2008—2013年四川省传染病自动预警系统应用效果分析[J].现代预防医学,2014,41(21):3918-3921.
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[4]王瑞平,龙云,刘会会,等.上海市松江区8种重点传染病控制图法预警界值优选分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2014,48(1):53-57.
[5]王瑞平,姜永根,郭晓芹,等.基于传染病自动预警信息系统的“流行标准”最优化选择分析[J].中国卫生统计,2017,34(2):214-217.
[6]黄峥强,吴生根,陈武,等.2008—2014年福建省传染病自动预警系统运行情况分析[J].预防医学论坛,2015,21(8):585-589.
[7]朱新凤,闻栋,刘光涛.2008—2013年浙江省湖州市传染病自动预警系统运行效果评价[J].疾病监测,2015,30(9):784-788.
[8]邱琳,郭晓荣,郁会莲,等.2008—2012年陕西省传染病自动预警系统运行效果评价[J].疾病监测,2013,28(9):762-765.
[9]梁祁,吴莹,刘文东,等.2009—2011年江苏省传染病自动预警系统运行效果分析[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版),2012,32(11):1607-1611.
[10]钱程,马焰,顾敏华,等.2010—2015年江阴市手足口病流行特征及疾病负担[J].职业与健康,2017,33(16):2220-2223.
[11]修仕信,张雪峰,刘元宝,等.2015年无锡市麻疹流行病学特征分析[J].现代预防医学,2016,43(18):3300-3303.
[12]王瑞平,姜永根,郭晓芹,等.2008—2014年上海松江传染病预警信号的流行病学特征分析[J].现代预防医学,2016,43(3):385-389.
[13]钱程,许妮娜,马焰,等.江阴市两种丙类传染病控制图法预警界值优选研究[J].职业与健康,2016,32(2):215-217.
[14]赖圣杰,廖一兰,张洪龙,等.2011—2013年国家传染病自动预警系统中时间模型和时空模型应用效果比较[J].中华预防医学杂志,2014,48(4):259-264.
[2]刘新凤,成瑶,刘东鹏,等.甘肃省2008—2013年传染病自动预警系统时间模型运行结果分析[J].中国公共卫生,2017,33(4):634-637.
[3]赵志荣,姚为玲.马鞍山市2011—2012年传染病自动预警信息分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2014,18(11):1091-1094.
[4]王瑞平,龙云,刘会会,等.上海市松江区8种重点传染病控制图法预警界值优选分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2014,48(1):53-57.
[5]王瑞平,姜永根,郭晓芹,等.基于传染病自动预警信息系统的“流行标准”最优化选择分析[J].中国卫生统计,2017,34(2):214-217.
[6]黄峥强,吴生根,陈武,等.2008—2014年福建省传染病自动预警系统运行情况分析[J].预防医学论坛,2015,21(8):585-589.
[7]朱新凤,闻栋,刘光涛.2008—2013年浙江省湖州市传染病自动预警系统运行效果评价[J].疾病监测,2015,30(9):784-788.
[8]邱琳,郭晓荣,郁会莲,等.2008—2012年陕西省传染病自动预警系统运行效果评价[J].疾病监测,2013,28(9):762-765.
[9]梁祁,吴莹,刘文东,等.2009—2011年江苏省传染病自动预警系统运行效果分析[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版),2012,32(11):1607-1611.
[10]钱程,马焰,顾敏华,等.2010—2015年江阴市手足口病流行特征及疾病负担[J].职业与健康,2017,33(16):2220-2223.
[11]修仕信,张雪峰,刘元宝,等.2015年无锡市麻疹流行病学特征分析[J].现代预防医学,2016,43(18):3300-3303.
[12]王瑞平,姜永根,郭晓芹,等.2008—2014年上海松江传染病预警信号的流行病学特征分析[J].现代预防医学,2016,43(3):385-389.
[13]钱程,许妮娜,马焰,等.江阴市两种丙类传染病控制图法预警界值优选研究[J].职业与健康,2016,32(2):215-217.
[14]赖圣杰,廖一兰,张洪龙,等.2011—2013年国家传染病自动预警系统中时间模型和时空模型应用效果比较[J].中华预防医学杂志,2014,48(4):259-264.