能效提升不同情境下中国能源效率的经济反弹效应研究
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摘要
本文编制了包含能源部门的宏观SAM表,构建了四层生产函数的中国能源效率反弹效应的可计算一般均衡模型,并将模型系统分为生产模块、收入支出模块、国际贸易模块、投资模块和闭合法则、市场均衡与福利模块五个模块。通过模型模拟,得出模型参数校调结果,测算了能源消耗产出反弹效应对经济系统的影响和不同情境下能源消耗产出反弹效应。研究表明,当煤炭、石油和天然气、电力的能源效率提高5%时,各部门石油和天然气需求量也均增加,煤炭效率提高会降低农业、建筑业和服务业的电力需求量,而煤炭、石油和天然气、电力的需求量均有所上升。三种能源效率分别提高5%时,总量经济指标均有所提高。能源效率提升不同程度时,反弹效应存在显著差异。当能源效率从1%提升至15%时,煤炭、石油天然气、电力需求量均呈现先下降再上升的"V"形趋势。在同等能源效率提升幅度下,能源密集型产业的能源效率的反弹效应更为显著。政府部门在制定能源政策,提高能源效率时,不应当一味追求能效的提升,而应当寻求最适宜的能效提升幅度,使部门产出和经济总效益最大化。
This paper compiles a macro SAM table which contains the energy sector and constructs a four-layer production function of computable general equilibrium model to calculate rebound effect of China ' s energy efficiency. This article divides the model system into five parts: production,income expenditure,international trade,investment and closure rule,market equilibrium and welfare. Through model simulation,the calibration of parameters is obtained,and rebound effect on the economic system and the rebound effect on energy efficiency under different situations are calculated. Results show that when the energy efficiency of coal,oil,natural gas and electricity is increased by 5%,the demands for oil and natural gas are increased,and the increase of coal efficiency will reduce the demand for electricity in agriculture,construction and service industries,while the demands for coal,oil,natural gas and electricity are increasing. When the three energy efficiencies increase by 5%,the total economic indicators increase. There are significant differences in rebound effect when energy efficiencies are different. When the efficiency of energy consumption is increased from 1% to 15%,the demands for coal,oil,natural gas and electricity decrease at first and then increase,and show a " V" trend. The rebound effect of energy consumption output efficiency of energy intensive industries is more significant at the same energy consumption output efficiency. Government departments should not blindly pursue energy efficiency improvement while formulating energy policy and improving energy efficiency,but should seek the most suitable energy efficiency promotion range,so as to make the department output and the total benefit of the economy maximized.
This paper compiles a macro SAM table which contains the energy sector and constructs a four-layer production function of computable general equilibrium model to calculate rebound effect of China ' s energy efficiency. This article divides the model system into five parts: production,income expenditure,international trade,investment and closure rule,market equilibrium and welfare. Through model simulation,the calibration of parameters is obtained,and rebound effect on the economic system and the rebound effect on energy efficiency under different situations are calculated. Results show that when the energy efficiency of coal,oil,natural gas and electricity is increased by 5%,the demands for oil and natural gas are increased,and the increase of coal efficiency will reduce the demand for electricity in agriculture,construction and service industries,while the demands for coal,oil,natural gas and electricity are increasing. When the three energy efficiencies increase by 5%,the total economic indicators increase. There are significant differences in rebound effect when energy efficiencies are different. When the efficiency of energy consumption is increased from 1% to 15%,the demands for coal,oil,natural gas and electricity decrease at first and then increase,and show a " V" trend. The rebound effect of energy consumption output efficiency of energy intensive industries is more significant at the same energy consumption output efficiency. Government departments should not blindly pursue energy efficiency improvement while formulating energy policy and improving energy efficiency,but should seek the most suitable energy efficiency promotion range,so as to make the department output and the total benefit of the economy maximized.
引文
[1] GREENING A,GREENE L,DIFIGLIO C. Energy efficiency and consumption—the rebound effect:A survey[J]. Energy Policy,2000,28(6):389-401.
[2] BRANNLUND R,GHALWASH T,NORDSTROM J. Increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect:Effects on consumption and emissions[J]. Energy Economics,2007,29(1):1-17.
[3] SORRELL S. The rebound effect:An assessment of the evidence for economy-wide energy saving from improved energy efficiency[R]. UK Energy Research Centre,2007.
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[6] GILLINGHAM K,RAPSON S,WAGNER G. The rebound effect and energy efficiency policy[R]. Working Papers,2015,rev-017.
[7] Li L,Han Y.The energy efficiency rebound effect in China from three industries perspective[J]. Energy Procedia,2012,(14):1105-1110.
[8] TURNER K. Rebound effects from increased energy efficiency:A time to pause and reflect[J]. The Energy Journal,2013,34(4):25-42.
[9] HARRY D. SAUNDERS. Does predicted rebound depend on distinguishing between energy and energy services?[J]. Energy Policy,2000(28):6-7.
[10] LIN B,LIU H. A study on the energy rebound effect of China's residential building energy efficiency[J]. Energy and Buildings,2015(86):608-618.
[11] YU X,CRUZ J,CRITTENDEN J. Regional energy rebound effect:The impact of economy-wide and sector level energy efficiency improvement in Georgia,USA[J]. Energy Policy,2015(87):250-259.
[12] LU Y,LIU Y,ZHOU M. Rebound effect of improved energy efficiency for different energy types:A general equilibrium analysis for China[J]. Energy Economics,2017(62):248-256.
[13]李元龙,陆文聪.生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹分析[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2011,21(11):44-49.
[14]胡秋阳.回弹效应与能源效率政策的重点产业选择[J].经济研究,2014,49(2):128-140.
[15]查冬兰,周德群.基于CGE模型的中国能源效率回弹效应研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,27(12):39-53+66.
[16]查冬兰,周德群,孙元.为什么能源效率与碳排放同步增长——基于回弹效应的解释[J].系统工程,2013,31(10):105-111.
[17]杨莉莉,邵帅.能源回弹效应的理论演进与经验证据:一个文献述评[J].财经研究,2015,41(8):19-38.
[18]邵帅,杨莉莉,黄涛.能源回弹效应的理论模型与中国经验[J].经济研究,2013,48(2):96-109.
[19]周四军,罗丹,熊伟强,陈强.基于技术进步的中国能源回弹效应研究[J].广西财经学院学报,2017,30(1):1-9.
[20]高辉,冯梦黎,甘雨婕.基于技术进步的中国能源回弹效应分析[J].河北经贸大学学报,2013,34(6):92-95.
[21]吕荣胜,聂铟.中国工业能源回弹效应研究——基于技术进步视角[J].武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版),2013,26(5):695-700.
[22]赵厚川,李德山,刘媛媛.技术进步对川渝地区能源回弹效应的实证研究[J].能源技术经济,2012,24(4):39-43.
[23]陈星星.集聚还是分散:中国行业能源消费存在空间异质性吗?[J].山西财经大学学报,2018,40(9):48-61.
[24]李平,陈星星.我国八大经济区域能源消耗产出效率差异研究[J].东南学术,2016(5):91-105+248.
[25]陈星星.非期望产出下中国省域能耗效率评估与提升路径[J].东南学术,2018(1):151-159.
[26]张欣.可计算一般均衡模型的基本原理与编程[M].2版.上海:格致出版社,2017.
[27] ADAMS P,DIXON J,GIESEECKE J,HORRIDGE M. MMRF:Monash multi-regional forecasting model:A dynamic multiregional model of the Australian economy[R]. Centre of Policy Studies,Monash University,2010.
[28] KAHN M,BENJAMIN H. Debunking the myths of computable general equilibrium models[R]. SCEPA Working Paper,2008.
(1)由于篇幅所限,第一层至第四层均仅显示价格合成公式,分项推导公式省略,备索。
(1)由于篇幅所限,仅列出1%、9%和15%的模拟结果。
[2] BRANNLUND R,GHALWASH T,NORDSTROM J. Increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect:Effects on consumption and emissions[J]. Energy Economics,2007,29(1):1-17.
[3] SORRELL S. The rebound effect:An assessment of the evidence for economy-wide energy saving from improved energy efficiency[R]. UK Energy Research Centre,2007.
[4] BENTZEN J. Estimating the rebound effect in US manufacturing energy consumption[J]. Energy Economics,2004,26(1):123-134.
[5] GILLINGHAM K,KOTCHEN J,RAPSON S,WAGNER G. Energy policy:The rebound effect is overplayed[J].Nature,2013,493(7433):475-476.
[6] GILLINGHAM K,RAPSON S,WAGNER G. The rebound effect and energy efficiency policy[R]. Working Papers,2015,rev-017.
[7] Li L,Han Y.The energy efficiency rebound effect in China from three industries perspective[J]. Energy Procedia,2012,(14):1105-1110.
[8] TURNER K. Rebound effects from increased energy efficiency:A time to pause and reflect[J]. The Energy Journal,2013,34(4):25-42.
[9] HARRY D. SAUNDERS. Does predicted rebound depend on distinguishing between energy and energy services?[J]. Energy Policy,2000(28):6-7.
[10] LIN B,LIU H. A study on the energy rebound effect of China's residential building energy efficiency[J]. Energy and Buildings,2015(86):608-618.
[11] YU X,CRUZ J,CRITTENDEN J. Regional energy rebound effect:The impact of economy-wide and sector level energy efficiency improvement in Georgia,USA[J]. Energy Policy,2015(87):250-259.
[12] LU Y,LIU Y,ZHOU M. Rebound effect of improved energy efficiency for different energy types:A general equilibrium analysis for China[J]. Energy Economics,2017(62):248-256.
[13]李元龙,陆文聪.生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹分析[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2011,21(11):44-49.
[14]胡秋阳.回弹效应与能源效率政策的重点产业选择[J].经济研究,2014,49(2):128-140.
[15]查冬兰,周德群.基于CGE模型的中国能源效率回弹效应研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,27(12):39-53+66.
[16]查冬兰,周德群,孙元.为什么能源效率与碳排放同步增长——基于回弹效应的解释[J].系统工程,2013,31(10):105-111.
[17]杨莉莉,邵帅.能源回弹效应的理论演进与经验证据:一个文献述评[J].财经研究,2015,41(8):19-38.
[18]邵帅,杨莉莉,黄涛.能源回弹效应的理论模型与中国经验[J].经济研究,2013,48(2):96-109.
[19]周四军,罗丹,熊伟强,陈强.基于技术进步的中国能源回弹效应研究[J].广西财经学院学报,2017,30(1):1-9.
[20]高辉,冯梦黎,甘雨婕.基于技术进步的中国能源回弹效应分析[J].河北经贸大学学报,2013,34(6):92-95.
[21]吕荣胜,聂铟.中国工业能源回弹效应研究——基于技术进步视角[J].武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版),2013,26(5):695-700.
[22]赵厚川,李德山,刘媛媛.技术进步对川渝地区能源回弹效应的实证研究[J].能源技术经济,2012,24(4):39-43.
[23]陈星星.集聚还是分散:中国行业能源消费存在空间异质性吗?[J].山西财经大学学报,2018,40(9):48-61.
[24]李平,陈星星.我国八大经济区域能源消耗产出效率差异研究[J].东南学术,2016(5):91-105+248.
[25]陈星星.非期望产出下中国省域能耗效率评估与提升路径[J].东南学术,2018(1):151-159.
[26]张欣.可计算一般均衡模型的基本原理与编程[M].2版.上海:格致出版社,2017.
[27] ADAMS P,DIXON J,GIESEECKE J,HORRIDGE M. MMRF:Monash multi-regional forecasting model:A dynamic multiregional model of the Australian economy[R]. Centre of Policy Studies,Monash University,2010.
[28] KAHN M,BENJAMIN H. Debunking the myths of computable general equilibrium models[R]. SCEPA Working Paper,2008.
(1)由于篇幅所限,第一层至第四层均仅显示价格合成公式,分项推导公式省略,备索。
(1)由于篇幅所限,仅列出1%、9%和15%的模拟结果。
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