2018年南亚地区经济发展形势综述
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摘要
与2017年相比,2018年南亚地区经济继续保持强劲增长的态势,仍是全球经济增速最快的地区之一。作为南亚地区大国的印度,随着税制改革的推进、"废钞令"影响的逐步消散、外资的大规模进入以及国内需求的扩大等,经济持续反弹,对南亚经济保持高增长起到了巨大的推动作用。对外贸易方面,由于内外需求增加,南亚进出口总额增长较快,但由于总体上进口增速高于出口增速以及区域内主要货币贬值、国际石油价格上涨等因素,导致贸易赤字进一步扩大;国际收支方面,缓慢的出口增长和侨汇收入难以平衡较高的贸易赤字水平,导致国际收支逆差加剧,外汇储备有所减少;物价水平方面,2018年,印、巴、孟等国的货币贬值使得通胀压力增大,并抬高了南亚总体物价水平,但通胀水平仍处于温和状态。2019年虽然国际及南亚各国仍存在各种不确定因素,但经济保持较高增长仍然可期。
Compared with 2017,South Asia's economic growth is strong in 2018,and it is still one of the fastest growing regions in the world,and continues to promote world economic growth with East Asia. The promotion of the tax reform in India by the major regional countries,the gradual dissipation of the "waste-off order"and the economic rebound have greatly promoted. In terms of foreign trade,the total volume of imports and exports increased significantly. The overall trade deficit was further widened due to the fact that the growth rate of imports was greater than the growth rate of exports,the depreciation of major currencies in the region,and the continued rise in international oil prices. In terms of balance of payments,slow export growth and remittance income are difficult to balance the high trade deficit level,leading to an increase in the balance of payments deficit,which is likely to continue into the next two years. In terms of price level,the currency depreciation in India,Pakistan,Bangladesh and other countries in2018 made inflationary pressures higher,raising the overall price level in South Asia,and correspondingly reducing foreign exchange reserves,but inflation is still in moderate inflation. Although there are still various uncertainties in the international and South Asian regions,the high economic growth in South Asia in 2019 is still expected.
Compared with 2017,South Asia's economic growth is strong in 2018,and it is still one of the fastest growing regions in the world,and continues to promote world economic growth with East Asia. The promotion of the tax reform in India by the major regional countries,the gradual dissipation of the "waste-off order"and the economic rebound have greatly promoted. In terms of foreign trade,the total volume of imports and exports increased significantly. The overall trade deficit was further widened due to the fact that the growth rate of imports was greater than the growth rate of exports,the depreciation of major currencies in the region,and the continued rise in international oil prices. In terms of balance of payments,slow export growth and remittance income are difficult to balance the high trade deficit level,leading to an increase in the balance of payments deficit,which is likely to continue into the next two years. In terms of price level,the currency depreciation in India,Pakistan,Bangladesh and other countries in2018 made inflationary pressures higher,raising the overall price level in South Asia,and correspondingly reducing foreign exchange reserves,but inflation is still in moderate inflation. Although there are still various uncertainties in the international and South Asian regions,the high economic growth in South Asia in 2019 is still expected.
引文
(1)《全球经济:2018年能否扭转潮流?》,http://mini.eastday.com/a/180705173004066.html.
(2)《印度向外界公布2018年三季度GDP数据增速达7.7%位列全球主要国家首位》,http://www.885.com/a/339058.html.
(3)《普拉布:印度2017-18财年FDI流入增长3.2%》,http://bombay.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201806/20180602760633.shtml.
(4)《巴基斯坦2017-18财年经济运行情况和2018-19财年预算分析》.http://pk.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ztdy/201808/20180802780117.shtml.
(5)《孟加拉国2017～2018财年GDP增长率7.86%》,http://bd.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201809/20180902788727.shtml.
(6)《孟加拉国步入发展中国家行列“一带一路”带来发展机遇》,http://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/xwzx/hwxw/53680.htm.
(7)《2017年尼泊尔旅行及旅游业贡献收入1950亿卢比》,http://np.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201804/20180402726839.shtml.
(8)《2017/18财年尼泊尔旅游业创汇收入达到历史新高》,http://np.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201808/20180802781081.shtml.
(9)《巴基斯坦2017-18财年经济运行情况和2018～19财年预算分析》,http://pk.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ztdy/201808/20180802780117.shtml.
(10)《2018年11月斯里兰卡贸易简讯》,http://countryreport.mofcom.gov.cn/new/view110209.asp?news_id=62101.
(11)《2017～2018财年孟加拉国出口增长5.81%》,http://bd.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201807/20180702763032.shtml.
(12)《尼泊尔2017/18财年前七个月经济数据出炉》,http://np.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201803/20180302720130.shtml.
(13)《印度2017～18财年经常账目赤字增长42%》,http://bombay.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201806/20180602760637.shtml.
(14)《印度二季度经常账户赤字扩大至2.9%》,http://in.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201812/201812028 15442.shtml.
(15)《本财年前5个月巴经常账户赤字同比缩减10.6%》,http://pk.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201812/20181202819048.shtml.
(16)国际货币基金组织网站,http://www.imf.org/en/Data.
(17)《莫迪政府首次提高利率至6.25%》,http://bombay.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201806/2018060 2753316.shtml.
(18)《巴基斯坦消费者物价指数11月份环比回落至6.5%》,http://pk.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201812/20181202813738.shtml.
(19)《孟加拉国10月份通货膨胀率降至近18个月新低》,http://bd.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201811/20181102803527.shtml.
(2)《印度向外界公布2018年三季度GDP数据增速达7.7%位列全球主要国家首位》,http://www.885.com/a/339058.html.
(3)《普拉布:印度2017-18财年FDI流入增长3.2%》,http://bombay.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201806/20180602760633.shtml.
(4)《巴基斯坦2017-18财年经济运行情况和2018-19财年预算分析》.http://pk.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ztdy/201808/20180802780117.shtml.
(5)《孟加拉国2017～2018财年GDP增长率7.86%》,http://bd.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201809/20180902788727.shtml.
(6)《孟加拉国步入发展中国家行列“一带一路”带来发展机遇》,http://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/xwzx/hwxw/53680.htm.
(7)《2017年尼泊尔旅行及旅游业贡献收入1950亿卢比》,http://np.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201804/20180402726839.shtml.
(8)《2017/18财年尼泊尔旅游业创汇收入达到历史新高》,http://np.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201808/20180802781081.shtml.
(9)《巴基斯坦2017-18财年经济运行情况和2018～19财年预算分析》,http://pk.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ztdy/201808/20180802780117.shtml.
(10)《2018年11月斯里兰卡贸易简讯》,http://countryreport.mofcom.gov.cn/new/view110209.asp?news_id=62101.
(11)《2017～2018财年孟加拉国出口增长5.81%》,http://bd.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201807/20180702763032.shtml.
(12)《尼泊尔2017/18财年前七个月经济数据出炉》,http://np.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201803/20180302720130.shtml.
(13)《印度2017～18财年经常账目赤字增长42%》,http://bombay.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201806/20180602760637.shtml.
(14)《印度二季度经常账户赤字扩大至2.9%》,http://in.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201812/201812028 15442.shtml.
(15)《本财年前5个月巴经常账户赤字同比缩减10.6%》,http://pk.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201812/20181202819048.shtml.
(16)国际货币基金组织网站,http://www.imf.org/en/Data.
(17)《莫迪政府首次提高利率至6.25%》,http://bombay.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201806/2018060 2753316.shtml.
(18)《巴基斯坦消费者物价指数11月份环比回落至6.5%》,http://pk.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201812/20181202813738.shtml.
(19)《孟加拉国10月份通货膨胀率降至近18个月新低》,http://bd.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/201811/20181102803527.shtml.