全球常规油气资源评价及潜力分析
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摘要
文中以成藏组合为评价单元,对不同勘探程度的评价单元(盆地),确定不同的资源评价方法和计算参数,采用蒙特卡罗法进行资源量汇总,评价出了全球主要含油气盆地(195个)的石油待发现资源量为8 620亿桶,待发现天然气资源量为4 765万亿立方英尺;研制了全球不同储量管理体系下的四种储量增长模型,计算了全球已发现油气田到2030年的储量值及增长量,预计到2030年全球石油剩余可采储量为2.82万亿桶,天然气剩余可采储量为10 460万亿立方英尺;评价结果表明,目前全球常规石油可采资源量为3.66万亿桶,天然气可采资源量为16 110万亿立方英尺;全球常规待发现油气资源在地域、国家、盆地类型、层系分布上极为不均衡。随着地质理论的不断丰富和勘探技术的进步,深海、超深海、北极海域和陆上难进入的沙漠、高寒等地区将成为未来的油气接替领域。
For the first global conventional oil & gas resource assessment plays are regarded as assessment units.Different assessment methods and calculating parameters are applied to assessment units(basins)according to the exploration degree.Then the amounts of resources are added up by using the Monte Carlo method,thus undiscovered oil resources of the main hydrocarbon basins(195basins)in the world are up to862billion barrels and undiscovered gas resources are 4765Tcf.According to the different global reserves management systems,four reserve-growth models are invented,in order to calculate reserves and their reserve growth of the global discovered oil & gas fields up to 2030.By the year the global remaining recoverable oil reserves are expected to reach 2.82trillion barrels,and the remaining recoverable gas reserves will also get up to 10460Tcf.Furthermore results show that global recoverable conventional oil resources amount to 3.66trillion barrels of recoverable,and recoverable conventional gas resources amount to 16110Tcf.In terms of the regions,countries,basin types and strata,distribution of the global conventional oil & gas resources is extremely uneven.With constant enrichment of geological theories and rapid development of exploration technology,the deep water and ultra-deep-water,the Arctic waters,the inaccessible deserts,alpine region etc.will become alternative oil &gas areas in the future.
For the first global conventional oil & gas resource assessment plays are regarded as assessment units.Different assessment methods and calculating parameters are applied to assessment units(basins)according to the exploration degree.Then the amounts of resources are added up by using the Monte Carlo method,thus undiscovered oil resources of the main hydrocarbon basins(195basins)in the world are up to862billion barrels and undiscovered gas resources are 4765Tcf.According to the different global reserves management systems,four reserve-growth models are invented,in order to calculate reserves and their reserve growth of the global discovered oil & gas fields up to 2030.By the year the global remaining recoverable oil reserves are expected to reach 2.82trillion barrels,and the remaining recoverable gas reserves will also get up to 10460Tcf.Furthermore results show that global recoverable conventional oil resources amount to 3.66trillion barrels of recoverable,and recoverable conventional gas resources amount to 16110Tcf.In terms of the regions,countries,basin types and strata,distribution of the global conventional oil & gas resources is extremely uneven.With constant enrichment of geological theories and rapid development of exploration technology,the deep water and ultra-deep-water,the Arctic waters,the inaccessible deserts,alpine region etc.will become alternative oil &gas areas in the future.
引文
[1]金之钧,张金川.油气资源评价方法的基本原则[J].石油学报,2002,23(1):19-23.
[2]Klett T R,Gautier D L,Ahlbrandt T S.An evaluation of the U.S.Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000[J].AAPG Bulletin,2005,89(8):1033-1042.
[3]Meneley R A,Calverley A E,Logan K G,et al.Resource assessment methodologies:Current status and future direction[J].American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin,2003,87(4):535-540.
[4]赵文智,胡素云,沈成喜,等.油气资源评价的总体思路和方法体系[J].石油学报,2005,26(增刊):13-17.
[5]周总瑛,唐跃刚.我国油气资源评价现状与存在问题[J].新疆石油地质,2004,25(5):554-556.
[6]郭秋麟,沈成喜,杨涛,等.油气资源经济评价思路与方法[J].石油学报,2005,26(增刊):45-48.
[7]张宽,胡克成,吴克强,等.中国近海主要含油气盆地新一轮油气资源评价[J].中国海上油气,2007,19(5):289-294.
[8]Biteau J J.SPI-PSY方法计算全球剩余油气储量[J].世界石油工业,2011(4):64-67.
[9]IHS Reservoirs.Information Handling Services[R/OL].(2009-03-01)[2012-04-05].https://edin.ihsenergy.com/Default Results.
[10]童晓光.论成藏组合在勘探评价中的意义[J].西南石油大学学报:自然科学版,2009,31(6):1-8.
[11]童晓光,李浩武,肖坤叶,等.成藏组合快速分析技术在海外低勘探程度盆地的应用[J].石油学报,2009,30(3):317-323.
[12]赵文智,胡素云,沈成喜,等.油气资源评价方法研究新进展[J].石油学报,2005,26(增刊):25-29.
[13]高济稷,白国平,秦养珍,等.蒙特卡洛模拟法在也门马里卜—夏布瓦盆地中的应用[J].石油实验地质,2010,32(3):305-308.
[14]Mann P,Gahagan L,Gordon M B.Tectonic setting of the world’s giant oil and gas fields[J].AAPG Bulletin,2003,78(2):15-105.
[15]Verma M K.Modified Arrington Method for Calculating Reserve Growth:A New Model for United States Oil and Gas Fields[R].Denver Colorado:United States Geological Survey Bulletin 2172-D,2003:1-14.
[16]Klett T R,Attanasi E D,Charpentier R R.New U.S.Geological Survey Method for the Assessment of Reserve Growth[R].United States Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2011-5163.Virginia,2011:1-8.
[17]童晓光,黎丙建.老油区石油储量增长趋势预测及应用[J].石油勘探与开发,1991,19(6):25-30.
[18]朱杰,车长波,刘成林,等.储量增长预测模型的对比分析[J].西安石油大学学报:自然科学版,2008,23(5):21-23.
[19]田淑芳,张鸿文.应用生命周期旋回理论预测辽河油田石油探明储量增长趋势[J].岩性油气藏,2010,22(1):98-100.
[20]ELLIOTMA,VonFredersdorfCG.Rational analysis of future rate of natural gas production,natural gases of North America[J].American Association of Petroleum Geologists,1968,21:2171-2184.
[21]陈元千,胡建国.预测油气田产量和可采储量的WeibuU模型[J].新疆石油地质,1995,16(3):250-255.
[22]Klett T R,Donald L G,Ahlbrandt T S.An evaluation of the U.S.geological survey world petroleum assessment 2000[J].AAPG Bulletin,2005,89(8):1033-1042.
[23]Arrington J R.Predicting the size of crude reserves is key to evaluating exploration programs[J].Oil&Gas Journal,1960,58(9):130-134.
[24]Attanasi E D,Root D H.The enigma of oil and gas field growth[J].AAPG Bulletin,1994,78(3):321-332.
[25]赵文智,胡素云.油气资源—储量分类体系探讨[J].石油学报,2005,26(增刊):7-11.
[26]江文荣,周雯雯,贾怀存.世界海洋油气资源勘探潜力及利用前景[J].天然气地球科学,2010,21(6):889-995.
[27]马永生,蔡勋育,赵培荣,等.深层、超深层碳酸盐岩油气储层形成机理研究综述[J].地学前缘,2011,18(4):181-192.
[28]翟光明,王世洪,何文渊.十年全球油气勘探热点趋向与启示[J].石油学报,2012,33(1):14-19.
[29]于开财,李胜利,于兴全,等.裂谷盆地深层石油地质特征与油气成藏条件[J].地学前缘,2010,17(5):289-295.
[30]庞雄,陈长民,朱明.深水沉积研究前缘问题[J].地质评论,2007,53(1):36-43.
[31]朱如凯,邹才能,白斌,等.地球油气勘探研究进展及对沉积储层研究的需求[J].地球科学进展,2011,85(11):1823-1833.
[32]何文渊,郝美英.油气勘探新技术与应用研究[J].地质学报,2011,85(11):1150-1161.
[2]Klett T R,Gautier D L,Ahlbrandt T S.An evaluation of the U.S.Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000[J].AAPG Bulletin,2005,89(8):1033-1042.
[3]Meneley R A,Calverley A E,Logan K G,et al.Resource assessment methodologies:Current status and future direction[J].American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin,2003,87(4):535-540.
[4]赵文智,胡素云,沈成喜,等.油气资源评价的总体思路和方法体系[J].石油学报,2005,26(增刊):13-17.
[5]周总瑛,唐跃刚.我国油气资源评价现状与存在问题[J].新疆石油地质,2004,25(5):554-556.
[6]郭秋麟,沈成喜,杨涛,等.油气资源经济评价思路与方法[J].石油学报,2005,26(增刊):45-48.
[7]张宽,胡克成,吴克强,等.中国近海主要含油气盆地新一轮油气资源评价[J].中国海上油气,2007,19(5):289-294.
[8]Biteau J J.SPI-PSY方法计算全球剩余油气储量[J].世界石油工业,2011(4):64-67.
[9]IHS Reservoirs.Information Handling Services[R/OL].(2009-03-01)[2012-04-05].https://edin.ihsenergy.com/Default Results.
[10]童晓光.论成藏组合在勘探评价中的意义[J].西南石油大学学报:自然科学版,2009,31(6):1-8.
[11]童晓光,李浩武,肖坤叶,等.成藏组合快速分析技术在海外低勘探程度盆地的应用[J].石油学报,2009,30(3):317-323.
[12]赵文智,胡素云,沈成喜,等.油气资源评价方法研究新进展[J].石油学报,2005,26(增刊):25-29.
[13]高济稷,白国平,秦养珍,等.蒙特卡洛模拟法在也门马里卜—夏布瓦盆地中的应用[J].石油实验地质,2010,32(3):305-308.
[14]Mann P,Gahagan L,Gordon M B.Tectonic setting of the world’s giant oil and gas fields[J].AAPG Bulletin,2003,78(2):15-105.
[15]Verma M K.Modified Arrington Method for Calculating Reserve Growth:A New Model for United States Oil and Gas Fields[R].Denver Colorado:United States Geological Survey Bulletin 2172-D,2003:1-14.
[16]Klett T R,Attanasi E D,Charpentier R R.New U.S.Geological Survey Method for the Assessment of Reserve Growth[R].United States Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2011-5163.Virginia,2011:1-8.
[17]童晓光,黎丙建.老油区石油储量增长趋势预测及应用[J].石油勘探与开发,1991,19(6):25-30.
[18]朱杰,车长波,刘成林,等.储量增长预测模型的对比分析[J].西安石油大学学报:自然科学版,2008,23(5):21-23.
[19]田淑芳,张鸿文.应用生命周期旋回理论预测辽河油田石油探明储量增长趋势[J].岩性油气藏,2010,22(1):98-100.
[20]ELLIOTMA,VonFredersdorfCG.Rational analysis of future rate of natural gas production,natural gases of North America[J].American Association of Petroleum Geologists,1968,21:2171-2184.
[21]陈元千,胡建国.预测油气田产量和可采储量的WeibuU模型[J].新疆石油地质,1995,16(3):250-255.
[22]Klett T R,Donald L G,Ahlbrandt T S.An evaluation of the U.S.geological survey world petroleum assessment 2000[J].AAPG Bulletin,2005,89(8):1033-1042.
[23]Arrington J R.Predicting the size of crude reserves is key to evaluating exploration programs[J].Oil&Gas Journal,1960,58(9):130-134.
[24]Attanasi E D,Root D H.The enigma of oil and gas field growth[J].AAPG Bulletin,1994,78(3):321-332.
[25]赵文智,胡素云.油气资源—储量分类体系探讨[J].石油学报,2005,26(增刊):7-11.
[26]江文荣,周雯雯,贾怀存.世界海洋油气资源勘探潜力及利用前景[J].天然气地球科学,2010,21(6):889-995.
[27]马永生,蔡勋育,赵培荣,等.深层、超深层碳酸盐岩油气储层形成机理研究综述[J].地学前缘,2011,18(4):181-192.
[28]翟光明,王世洪,何文渊.十年全球油气勘探热点趋向与启示[J].石油学报,2012,33(1):14-19.
[29]于开财,李胜利,于兴全,等.裂谷盆地深层石油地质特征与油气成藏条件[J].地学前缘,2010,17(5):289-295.
[30]庞雄,陈长民,朱明.深水沉积研究前缘问题[J].地质评论,2007,53(1):36-43.
[31]朱如凯,邹才能,白斌,等.地球油气勘探研究进展及对沉积储层研究的需求[J].地球科学进展,2011,85(11):1823-1833.
[32]何文渊,郝美英.油气勘探新技术与应用研究[J].地质学报,2011,85(11):1150-1161.
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