中国耕地利用转型格局及驱动因素研究——基于人均耕地面积视角
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摘要
土地利用转型与社会经济转型相互作用,共同推动中国城乡转型发展。耕地资源是保障粮食安全的核心要素,基于中国人多地少的"人地关系"特征,深入分析中国耕地利用转型规律,对于制定合理的耕地保护政策,推动中国农业生产现代化具有重要战略意义。本文以林地转型理论为依据,构建了人均耕地面积视角下的耕地利用转型理论模型,探讨了城镇化进程中中国乡村地区人均耕地面积由不断下降到逐步上升的趋势性转折过程。基于全国10km栅格分辨率人均耕地面积的变化,研究表明:1990—2010年中国71%的耕地覆盖区人均耕地面积由逐步下降转型为稳定上升,基本验证了本文提出的耕地利用转型理论模型。此外,利用空间计量回归模型,定量识别了自然因素、区位因素和社会经济因素驱动耕地利用转型的机制,研究发现城镇化进程中社会经济因素在推动耕地利用转型中的作用不断加强,不同因素在耕地利用转型不同阶段的驱动机制差异显著。
Land use transitions and socioeconomic transitions jointly drive urban-rural transformation development in China. Given the man-land relationship defined by large populations with relatively little farmland in China, farmland resources are a core element contributing to food security.Therefore, it is of great strategic significance to develop a reasonable policy of farmland protection and promote the modernization of agricultural production via analysis of the law of farmland transition in China. Based on the theory of forest transition, we constructed a theoretical model for farmland transition from the perspective of per capita farmland area(PCFA) change and discussed the changing process of PCFA from continuous decline to gradual increase in the process of urbanization. Based on transitions measured at a 10 km gridded resolution of PCFA across the country, this study found that China's PCFA transitioned from a gradual decline to a steady rise during 1990—2010. It contains 71% of the farmland coverage area, which basically validates the theoretical model of farmland transition. In addition, we used the spatial econometric regression model to quantitatively identify the driving mechanisms of natural factors, location factors and socioeconomic factors for farmland transition. We found that the role of socioeconomic factors in promoting the farmland transition has been strengthened during the process of urbanization, and there were obvious differences in the driving mechanism for farmland transition in different stages.Theoretical and practical research on farmland transition is the frontier exploration of land use transition. In addition, further study of farmland transition in rural areas provides theoretical guidance for the transformation of agricultural production.
Land use transitions and socioeconomic transitions jointly drive urban-rural transformation development in China. Given the man-land relationship defined by large populations with relatively little farmland in China, farmland resources are a core element contributing to food security.Therefore, it is of great strategic significance to develop a reasonable policy of farmland protection and promote the modernization of agricultural production via analysis of the law of farmland transition in China. Based on the theory of forest transition, we constructed a theoretical model for farmland transition from the perspective of per capita farmland area(PCFA) change and discussed the changing process of PCFA from continuous decline to gradual increase in the process of urbanization. Based on transitions measured at a 10 km gridded resolution of PCFA across the country, this study found that China's PCFA transitioned from a gradual decline to a steady rise during 1990—2010. It contains 71% of the farmland coverage area, which basically validates the theoretical model of farmland transition. In addition, we used the spatial econometric regression model to quantitatively identify the driving mechanisms of natural factors, location factors and socioeconomic factors for farmland transition. We found that the role of socioeconomic factors in promoting the farmland transition has been strengthened during the process of urbanization, and there were obvious differences in the driving mechanism for farmland transition in different stages.Theoretical and practical research on farmland transition is the frontier exploration of land use transition. In addition, further study of farmland transition in rural areas provides theoretical guidance for the transformation of agricultural production.
引文
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1)关于中国综合农业区划方案和分区图,请查阅《中国综合农业区划》[35]。
1)因篇幅所限,全国及分区人均耕地面积的图件未在文中呈现,读者如需查看本文的相关数据及图件,可来信向作者索取。
[2]龙花楼.论土地利用转型与土地资源管理[J].地理研究,2015,34(9):1607-1618.[Long H L.Land use transition and land management[J].Geographical Research,2015,34(9):1607-1618.]
[3]Rudel T K,Coomes O T,Moran E F,et al.Forest transitions:towards a global understanding of land use change[J].Global Environmental Change,2005,15(1):23-31.
[4]宋小青.论土地利用转型的研究框架[J].地理学报,2017,72(3):471-487.[Song X Q.Discussion on land use transition research framework[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(3):471-487.]
[5]Lambin E F,Meyfroidt P.Land use transitions:Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change[J].Land Use Policy,2010,27(2):108-118.
[6]Grainger A.Difficulties in tracking the long-term global trend in tropical forest area[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA,2008,105(2):818-823.
[7]Mather A S.Forest transition theory and the reforesting of Scotland[J].The Scottish Geographical Magazine,2004,120(1-2):83-98.
[8]Barbier E B,Delacote P,Wolfersberger J.The economic analysis of the forest transition:a review[J].Journal of Forest Economics,2017,27:10-17.
[9]Ge D,Long H,Zhang Y,et al.Farmland transition and its influences on grain production in China[J].Land Use Policy,2018,70:94-105.
[10]Liu J,Zhang Z,Xu X,et al.Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China in the early 21st century[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2010,20(4):483-494.
[11]龙花楼,李婷婷.中国耕地和农村宅基地利用转型耦合分析[J].地理学报,2012,67(2):201-210.[Long H L,Li T T.Analysis of the coupling of farmland and rural housing land transition in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(2):201-210.]
[12]李秀彬,赵宇鸾.森林转型、农地边际化与生态恢复[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(10):91-95.[Li X B,Zhao Y L.Forest transition,agricultural land marginalization and ecological restoration[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(10):91-95.]
[13]邵景安,张仕超,李秀彬.山区耕地边际化特征及其动因与政策含义[J].地理学报,2014,69(2):227-242.[Shao J A,Zhang S C,Li X B.Farmland marginalization in the mountainous area:characteristics,influence factors and policy implications[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(2):227-242.]
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[15]王晓瑜,胡守庚,童陆亿.团风县耕地资源价值及其空间分布[J].资源科学,2016,38(2):206-216.[Wang X Y,Hu S G,Tong L Y.Evaluation and spatial distribution patterns of prefectural cultivated land resource multi-value in Tuanfeng,Hubei[J].Resources Science,2016,38(2):206-216.]
[16]杨忍,刘彦随,郭丽英,等.环渤海地区农村空心化程度与耕地利用集约度的时空变化及其耦合关系[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(2):181-190.[Yang R,Liu Y S,Guo L Y,et al.Spatialtemporal characteristics for rural hollowing and cultivated land use intensive degree:taking the Circum-Bohai Sea region in China as an example[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(2):181-190.]
[17]陈百明,杜红亮.试论耕地占用与GDP增长的脱钩研究[J].资源科学,2006,28(5):36-42.[Chen B M,Du H L.Analyzing decoupling relationship between arable land occupation and GDP growth[J].Resources Science,2006,28(5):36-42.]
[18]Li T,Long H,Zhang Y,et al.Analysis of the spatial mismatch of grain production and farmland resources in China based on the potential crop rotation system[J].Land Use Policy,2017,60:26-36.
[19]龙花楼,李秀彬.中国耕地转型与土地整理:研究进展与框架[J].地理科学进展,2006,25(5):67-76.[Long H L,Li X B.Cultivated-land transition and land consolidation and reclamation in China:research progress and frame[J].Progress in Geography,2006,25(5):67-76.]
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[24]Hussain A.Demographic transition in China and its implications[J].World Development,2002,30(10):1823-1834.
[25]Long H,Li Y,Liu Y,et al.Accelerated restructuring in rural China fueled by'increasing vs.decreasing balance'land-use policy for dealing with hollowed villages[J].Land Use Policy,2012,29(1):11-22.
[26]Liu Y,Yang R,Long H,et al.Implications of land-use change in rural China:a case study of Yucheng,Shandong Province[J].Land Use Policy,2014,40:111-118.
[27]Kirk D.Demographic transition theory[J].Population Studies,1996,50(3):361-387.
[28]Liu G,Wang H,Cheng Y,et al.The impact of rural out-migration on arable land use intensity:evidence from mountain areas in Guangdong,China[J].Land Use Policy,2016,59:569-579.
[29]Cai F.Demographic transition,demographic dividend,and Lewis turning point in China[J].China Economic Journal,2010,3(2):107-119.
[30]蔡运龙,汪勇,李玉平.中国耕地供需变化规律研究[J].中国土地科学,2009,23(3):11-18.[Cai Y L,Wang Y,Li Y P.Study on changing relationship of demand and supply of cultivated land in China[J].China Land Science,2009,23(3):11-18.]
[31]Wang X,Huang J,Rozelle S.Off-farm employment and agricultural specialization in China[J].China Economic Review,2017,42:155-165.
[32]国家地球系统数据共享平台-中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所.中国地区土地利用/土地覆盖数据集[EB/OL].(2016-08-16)[2017-8-05].http://www.geodata.cn/data/datadetails.html?dataguid=7997731293180&docid=13016.[Earth System National Sharing Data Platform-Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences.Land Use/Land Cover Data Set of China[EB/OL].(2016-08-16)[2017-8-05].http://www.geodata.cn/data/datadetails.html?dataguid=7997731293180&docid=13016.]
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1)关于中国综合农业区划方案和分区图,请查阅《中国综合农业区划》[35]。
1)因篇幅所限,全国及分区人均耕地面积的图件未在文中呈现,读者如需查看本文的相关数据及图件,可来信向作者索取。