1981—2018年山南市气温变化特征分析
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摘要
文章利用西藏山南市1981—2018年6个气象站逐日、逐月、逐年等气温资料,采用线性回归、累积距平、相关系数、墨西哥帽小波分析等统计学方法,分析了山南市气温变化特征。结果表明:1981—2018年山南市年平均气温呈上升趋势,升温率为0.28℃/10a,21世纪升温达到最高,为0.9℃;年平均最高、最低气温变化有明显不对称性,且最高气温较最低气温升温明显;气温变化季节性差异显著,其中冬季增温最显著、夏季增温最不明显;山南市年、季节气温变化均存在4—12a时间尺度上的周期性震荡,其中年平均气温、夏季、秋季在4a左右,春季、冬季在8a左右周期最为显著,为主周期。
The characteristics of temperature changes in Shannan City were analyzed based on daily, monthly and yearly temperature data form 6 meteorological stations for last 40 years(from 1981 to 2018) by using statistical methods, such as linear regression, cumulative anomaly, correlation coefficient and Mexican Hat Wavelet analysis. The changes in annual mean temperature showed an increasing trend with 0.28 °C/10 a rising rate in last 40 year and the temperature increase in the 21 st century by 0.9 °C was the most obvious in the Shannan City. There was an apparent asymmetry in terms of changes in mean annual maximum and minimum temperature, and the warming trend was more pronounced in the maximum temperature data than in the minimum temperature data. A seasonal difference was evident in temperature changes with the most conspicuous warming appeared in winter and non-conspicuous warming in summer. There was a periodic fluctuation in annual and seasonal temperature changes in Shannan over a 4—12 a time scale, wherein the fluctuation in annual mean temperature was the most marked over a time scale of about 4 a for summer and autumn and over a time scale of about 8 a for spring and winter.
The characteristics of temperature changes in Shannan City were analyzed based on daily, monthly and yearly temperature data form 6 meteorological stations for last 40 years(from 1981 to 2018) by using statistical methods, such as linear regression, cumulative anomaly, correlation coefficient and Mexican Hat Wavelet analysis. The changes in annual mean temperature showed an increasing trend with 0.28 °C/10 a rising rate in last 40 year and the temperature increase in the 21 st century by 0.9 °C was the most obvious in the Shannan City. There was an apparent asymmetry in terms of changes in mean annual maximum and minimum temperature, and the warming trend was more pronounced in the maximum temperature data than in the minimum temperature data. A seasonal difference was evident in temperature changes with the most conspicuous warming appeared in winter and non-conspicuous warming in summer. There was a periodic fluctuation in annual and seasonal temperature changes in Shannan over a 4—12 a time scale, wherein the fluctuation in annual mean temperature was the most marked over a time scale of about 4 a for summer and autumn and over a time scale of about 8 a for spring and winter.
引文
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[5]杜军,周顺武,唐叔乙.西藏近40年气温变化的气候特征分析[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(2):221-227.
[6]杨春艳,沈渭寿,林乃峰.西藏高原气候变化及其差异性[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(2):290-298.
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[2]IPCC.Global warming of 1.5℃[EB/OL].https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.
[3]樊红芳.青藏高原现代气候特征及大地形气候效应[D].兰州:兰州大学,2008:26-28.
[4]焦洋,游庆龙,林厚博,等.1979-2012年青藏高原地区地面气温时空分布特征[J].旱区研究2016,33(2):283-291.
[5]杜军,周顺武,唐叔乙.西藏近40年气温变化的气候特征分析[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(2):221-227.
[6]杨春艳,沈渭寿,林乃峰.西藏高原气候变化及其差异性[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(2):290-298.
[7]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第2版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:99-103.