灰色绝对关联度在风光互补特性分析中的应用
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摘要
针对风电和光伏出力的随机性、间歇性和波动性特点,引入灰色绝对关联度分析风光全过程互补特性。以青海省为例,对光伏电站之间、风电之间及风光电之间的最大出力、累积电量占比95%时出力系数等常规互补特性指标和灰色绝对关联度进行计算分析。结果表明:青海省光伏电站之间的互补性较小,风电之间的互补性优于光伏电站之间互补性,而且不同地区风光电之间互补性大于同地区;灰色绝对关联度计算分析结果与常规互补特性指标分析结果一致。灰色绝对关联度在光伏之间、风电之间及风光电之间互补性分析方面具有一定的适用性。
Aiming at random,interruptible and fluctuating features of wind and solar power output,the grey absolute relation is introduced to analyze the hybrid features in the whole process of the wind and solar power output. In Qinghai Province,for example,the hybrid feature indexes of maximum output and of output factor while the accumulating energy accounts for 95% between PV power plants,wind power plants and wind-PV power plants are computed and analyzed with the grey absolute relation. The results demonstrate that in Qinghai Province,complementarity between PV power plants is low. Complementarity between wind power plants is superior than that between PV power plants. Furthermore,complementarity between wind-PV power plants in different regions is superior than that in same region. The analyzing results by the grey absolute relation are in compliance with these by the conventional hybrid feature indexes. The grey absolute relation is adaptable in analysis on complementarity between PV power plants,wind power plants and wind-PV power plants.
Aiming at random,interruptible and fluctuating features of wind and solar power output,the grey absolute relation is introduced to analyze the hybrid features in the whole process of the wind and solar power output. In Qinghai Province,for example,the hybrid feature indexes of maximum output and of output factor while the accumulating energy accounts for 95% between PV power plants,wind power plants and wind-PV power plants are computed and analyzed with the grey absolute relation. The results demonstrate that in Qinghai Province,complementarity between PV power plants is low. Complementarity between wind power plants is superior than that between PV power plants. Furthermore,complementarity between wind-PV power plants in different regions is superior than that in same region. The analyzing results by the grey absolute relation are in compliance with these by the conventional hybrid feature indexes. The grey absolute relation is adaptable in analysis on complementarity between PV power plants,wind power plants and wind-PV power plants.
引文
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[4]吴兴泉,万秋兰.盐城地区风电及光电特性研究[J].江苏电机工程,2013,32(04):1-5.
[5]张培.基于可信容量的风光互补发电系统特性研究[D].济南:山东大学,2016.
[6]刘波,郭家宝,袁智强,等.风光互补发电系统特性研究[J].华东电力,2010,38(12):1903-1906.
[7]李海英,张丹,贾永丽,等.季节对风光互补发电特性的影响[J].节能,2014(11):63-66.
[8]王淑娟,汪徐华,任鹏,等.风光互补项目的应用性研究[J].太阳能,2013(08):56-60.
[9]徐锦才,董大富,张巍.可再生能源多能互补发电综述[J].小水电,2007(03):12-14.
[10]赵继超,袁越,傅质馨,等.基于Copula理论的风光互补发电系统可靠性评估[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(01):124-128.
[11]杨琦,张建华,刘自发,夏澍.风光互补混合供电系统多目标优化设计[J].电力系统自动化,2009(17):86-90.
[12]徐大明,康龙云,曹秉刚.基于NSGA-Ⅱ的风光互补独立供电系统多目标优化[J].太阳能学报,2006,27(06):593-598.
[13]吴兴泉.风光发电特性研究及其对地区电网的影响[D].南京:东南大学,2014.
[14]王社亮.西北地区促进可再生能源消纳多能互补研究[R].西安:中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,2017.
[15]李宏艳.关于灰色关联度计算方法的研究[J].系统工程与电子技术,2004,26(09):1231-1233,1270.
[16]刘思峰,蔡华,杨英杰,等.灰色关联分析模型研究进展[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(08):2041-2046.
[17]刘卫,何霞.一种新的灰色关联度模型[J].统计与决策,2011(14):160-161.
[18]冯利华.水资源变化趋势的物元分析[J].地域研究与开发,1999,18(02):18-21.
[19]邓聚龙.灰色系统理论的关联空间[J].模糊数学,1985(02):1-10.
[20]梅振国.灰色绝对关联度及其计算方法[J].系统工程,1992,10(05):43-44.