青岛地区降雪时空特征及环流成因分析
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摘要
为了研究青岛地区的降雪特点及形成原因,使用1961—2009年实况观测及NCEP全球再分析格点资料,统计分析了青岛地区降雪的时空特征,并采用合成分析和物理量诊断的方法对青岛大雪进行了环流分型和物理量特征分析。结果表明:青岛地区降雪最早月份11月,最晚月份4月。年平均降雪量10 mm左右,东北和西南多、东南少;年平均降雪日数10天左右,西北多、中部少。月平均降雪量、降雪日数均呈中间高、两头低的月际变化特征,12月、1月、2月多,11月和4月少。小波分析表明,年降雪量和降雪日数均存在19年左右的周期。大雪最早出现在11月下旬,最晚3月中旬。大雪的环流形势分为冷槽东移型、平直环流型和横槽转竖型3种,主要环流形势为冷槽东移型;高空明显的冷空气入侵,地面冷暖空气交汇,低层水汽供应充分,湿度大,低层辐合、高层辐散,引发青岛地区明显的降雪天气。物理量特征分析给出了青岛大雪预报的一个预报着眼点。
To study the snowfall characteristics in Qingdao and the formation causes, the NCEP globalreanalyzed grid data and observational data of 1961-2009 were employed to analyze the temporal and spatialcharacteristics of snowfall in Qingdao. Using the method of composite analysis and physical diagnosis, thecirculation patterns and physical characteristics of the Qingdao heavy snowfall were obtained. The resultsshowed that: the earliest snowfall in Qingdao was in November, the latest was in April; the average annualsnowfall was around 10 mm, more in the northeast and southwest, and less in the southeast in Qingdao; theaverage annual snowfall days were about 10 days, more in the northwest, and less in the middle; the monthlyaverage snowfall and snowfall days showed the monthly variation characteristics of high in the middle and lowat both ends, more in December, January and February, and less in November and April; the wavelet analysisresults showed that both annual snowfall and annual snowfall days had the characteristics of oscillations with aquasi-19 year period; heavy snow first appeared in late November and the latest was in the middle of March.There were three kinds of circulation patterns for heavy snow in Qingdao, which were cold- trough easternmoving pattern, straight circulation pattern and zonal trough shifting to meridional pattern, and the mainpattern was cold-trough eastern moving pattern; there were obviously cold air in the upper air and confluenceof cold and warm air on the ground in Qingdao, meanwhile the warm air carried abundant moisture and thehumidity increased. Qingdao was in the divergence area in high-level and convergence area in low-level. Such circumstances caused significant snowfall weather in Qingdao. Thus, physical characteristics analysis couldenhance the heavy snow forecasting in Qingdao.
To study the snowfall characteristics in Qingdao and the formation causes, the NCEP globalreanalyzed grid data and observational data of 1961-2009 were employed to analyze the temporal and spatialcharacteristics of snowfall in Qingdao. Using the method of composite analysis and physical diagnosis, thecirculation patterns and physical characteristics of the Qingdao heavy snowfall were obtained. The resultsshowed that: the earliest snowfall in Qingdao was in November, the latest was in April; the average annualsnowfall was around 10 mm, more in the northeast and southwest, and less in the southeast in Qingdao; theaverage annual snowfall days were about 10 days, more in the northwest, and less in the middle; the monthlyaverage snowfall and snowfall days showed the monthly variation characteristics of high in the middle and lowat both ends, more in December, January and February, and less in November and April; the wavelet analysisresults showed that both annual snowfall and annual snowfall days had the characteristics of oscillations with aquasi-19 year period; heavy snow first appeared in late November and the latest was in the middle of March.There were three kinds of circulation patterns for heavy snow in Qingdao, which were cold- trough easternmoving pattern, straight circulation pattern and zonal trough shifting to meridional pattern, and the mainpattern was cold-trough eastern moving pattern; there were obviously cold air in the upper air and confluenceof cold and warm air on the ground in Qingdao, meanwhile the warm air carried abundant moisture and thehumidity increased. Qingdao was in the divergence area in high-level and convergence area in low-level. Such circumstances caused significant snowfall weather in Qingdao. Thus, physical characteristics analysis couldenhance the heavy snow forecasting in Qingdao.
引文
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[17]于群,周发琇,王启.海洋影响下的山东半岛冷流降雪[J].华东师范大学学报:自然科学版,2009(3):160-169.
[18]中国气象局.地面气象观测数据文件和记录簿表格式[M].北京:气象出版社,2005:18-19.
[2]蒋大凯,闵锦忠,阎琦,等.辽宁两类降雪过程的对比及定量降雪预报指标[J].气象科学,2012,32(2):219-225.
[3]朱小凡,张明军,王圣杰,等.1962—2012年青海省降雪初始终止日期和降雪日数时空变化特征[J].生态学杂志,2014,33(3):761-770.
[4]范可,田宝强.东北地区冬半年大雪-暴雪日数气候预测[J].科学通报,2013,58(8):699-706.
[5]马素艳,韩经纬,宋桂英,等.2014年春季内蒙古2次大风降雪寒潮过程分析[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(20):224-232.
[6]李青春,程丛兰,高华,等.北京一次冬季回流暴雪天气过程的数值分析[J].气象,2011,37(11):1380-1388.
[7]曹钢锋,张善君,朱官忠,等.山东天气分析与预报[M].北京:气象出版社,1988:212.
[8]胡雪红,陈华凯,杨玉霞.德州两次降雪过程的预报思路对比分析[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2010,46(专辑):121-125.
[9]周淑玲,闫淑莲.威海市冬季暴雪的天气气候特征[J].气象科技,2003,31(3):183-185,189.
[10]林曲凤,吴增茂,梁玉海,等.山东半岛一次强冷流降雪过程的中尺度特征分析[J].中国海洋大学学报:自然科学版,2006,36(6):908-914.
[11]姜俊玲,魏鸣,康浩,等.2005年12月山东半岛暴雪成因及多尺度信息特征[J].大气科学学报,2010,33(3):328-335.
[12]李洪业,徐旭然.冷流低云降雪成因的分析[J].气象,1995,21(12):21-24.
[13]于仁成,闫丽凤.下垫面热源对降水的作用研究[J].气象科学,1998,18(4):367-372.
[14]于志良.胶东半岛冷流降雪与海气湍流感热输送的关系[J].气象学报,1998,56(1):120-127.
[15]李炳文,李军,王庆华,等.山东半岛一次冷流降雪过程诊断分析[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(4):2273-2274,2285.
[16]杨成芳,李泽椿,李静,等.山东半岛一次持续性强冷流降雪过程的成因分析[J].高原气象,2008,27(2):442-451.
[17]于群,周发琇,王启.海洋影响下的山东半岛冷流降雪[J].华东师范大学学报:自然科学版,2009(3):160-169.
[18]中国气象局.地面气象观测数据文件和记录簿表格式[M].北京:气象出版社,2005:18-19.