管道风险因素的主客观集成权重赋权方法
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摘要
为了优化油气管道风险因素权重分配,提高管道风险评价结果的准确性,迫切需要一种适用于油气管道风险因素的赋权方法。通过对国内外油气管道事故进行统计,明确了油气管道的6类风险因素;建立了基于灰色关联理论与熵权理论相结合的权重赋值模型,确定油气管道风险因素的主观权重和客观权重,并基于偏差最小化理论建立了动态的风险因素集成权重模型。以某输油管道为例,选取4个有代表性的时间节点,求解6类管道风险因素的主观权重、客观权重及集成权重。结果表明:基于主客观集成权重的管道风险因素赋权方法能够有效计算各风险因素的权重,可应用于各类油气管道的风险评价中。(表5,参26)
In order to optimize the weight distribution of risk factors of oil and gas pipeline and improve the accuracy of pipeline risk assessment results, it is in urgent need to develop a weighting method suitable for the risk factors of oil and gas pipelines. In this paper, six kinds of pipeline risk factors were identified by conducting statistical analysis on oil and gas pipeline accidents at home and abroad. Then, the weighting model based on grey correlation theory and entropy weight theory was established to determine the subjective and objective weights of the risk factors of oil and gas pipelines. And the dynamic integrated weight model for risk factors was established based on the deviation minimization theory. Finally, a case study was conducted on one certain pipeline and its four representative time nodes were selected to calculate the subjective weight, objective weight and integrated weight of six pipeline risk factors. It is indicated that the pipeline risk factor weighting method based on subjective-objective integrated weight can effectively calculate the weights of risk factors and is applicable to the risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines.(5 Tables, 26 References)
In order to optimize the weight distribution of risk factors of oil and gas pipeline and improve the accuracy of pipeline risk assessment results, it is in urgent need to develop a weighting method suitable for the risk factors of oil and gas pipelines. In this paper, six kinds of pipeline risk factors were identified by conducting statistical analysis on oil and gas pipeline accidents at home and abroad. Then, the weighting model based on grey correlation theory and entropy weight theory was established to determine the subjective and objective weights of the risk factors of oil and gas pipelines. And the dynamic integrated weight model for risk factors was established based on the deviation minimization theory. Finally, a case study was conducted on one certain pipeline and its four representative time nodes were selected to calculate the subjective weight, objective weight and integrated weight of six pipeline risk factors. It is indicated that the pipeline risk factor weighting method based on subjective-objective integrated weight can effectively calculate the weights of risk factors and is applicable to the risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines.(5 Tables, 26 References)
引文
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[8]吕涛,郭庆,富莉,等.基于熵权灰色关联法的我国石油安全评价[J].中国矿业,2017,26(5):40-45.LYU T,GUO Q,FU L,et al.Research on evaluation of petroleum security in China based on entropy grey correlation method[J].China Mining Magazine,2017,26(5):40-45.
[9]田娜,陈保东,陈其胜.灰色关联分析在长输管道肯特风险评价中的应用[J].油气储运,2006,25(4):7-10.TIAN N,CHEN B D,CHEN Q S.The application of gray correlation analysis in W Kent Muhlbauer risk assessment of oil and gas pipeline[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2006,25(4):7-10.
[10]郑云萍,周妍妤,汪玉春.油气储运工程中综合评价指标权重应用与展望[J].油气储运,2014,33(9):928-932.ZHENG Y P,ZHOU Y Y,WANG Y C.Application and outlook for comprehensive evaluation index weight in oil&gas storage and transportation engineering[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(9):928-932.
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[12]刘沐宇,李海洋,田伟.基于熵权模糊综合评价的桥梁汽车燃烧风险分析[J].土木工程与管理学报,2014,31(2):51-55,61.LIU M Y,LI H Y,TIAN W.Study on vehicle burning accident during bridge operation period based on entropy weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Civil Engineering and Management,2014,31(2):51-55,61.
[13]ZU Z S.Generalized chi square method for the estimation of weights[J].Journal of Optimization Theory&Applications,2000,107(1):183-192.
[14]郭磊,刘凯,姚安林,等.西气东输管道坡面水毁风险变权综合评价[J].油气田地面工程,2011,30(11):1-4.GUO L,LIU K,YAO A L,et al.Variable weight synthetic risk assessment for slope water damage along West-East Gas Pipeline[J].Oil-Gasfield Surface Engineering,2011,30(11):1-4.
[15]狄彦,帅健,王晓霖,等.油气管道事故原因分析及分类方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(7):109-115.DI Y,SHUAI J,WANG X L,et al.Study on methods for classifying oil&gas pipeline incidents[J].China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(7):109-115.
[16]齐先志.某天然气管道风险评价实践[J].安全、健康和环境,2016,16(7):49-51.QI X Z.A natural gas pipeline risk assessment practice[J].Safety Health&Environment,2016,16(7):49-51.
[17]王婷,王新,李在蓉,等.国内外长输油气管道失效对比[J].油气储运,2017,36(11):1258-1264.WANG T,WANG X,LI Z R,et al.Comparison on failures of long-distance oil&gas pipelines at home and abroad[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2017,36(11):1258-1264.
[18]郭岩宝,傅晓娟,孟涛,等.基于变权-灰色理论的城镇燃气PE管道风险评价[J].压力容器,2015,32(3):59-65.GUO Y B,FU X J,MENG T,et al.Risk assessment of citygas pipeline based on variable weights and grey theory[J].Pressure Vessel,2015,32(3):59-65.
[19]蓝明新,唐兴中.基于熵权-灰色聚类决策法的油气管道设计方案优选研究[J].辽宁化工,2018,47(5):468-472.LAN M X,TANG X Z.Optimization of oil and gas pipelines designing scheme based on entropy-grey cluster analysis method[J].Liaoning Chemical,2018,47(5):468-472.
[20]曹康,姜峰,郑运虎.基于熵权模糊综合评价法的油气长输管道风险评估[J].辽宁石油化工大学学报,2015,35(5):27-30.CAO K,JIANG F,ZHENG Y H.Study on oil and gas pipeline risk assessment based on entropy weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method[J].Journal of Liaoning Shihua University,2015,35(5):27-30.
[21]郭磊,项卫东,刘英男.基于熵权法的新建长输天然气管道易损性评价[J].油气储运,2015,34(4):373-376.GUO L,XIANG W D,LIU Y N.Vulnerability assessment on new long-distance gas pipeline based on entropy method[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2015,34(4):373-376.
[22]潘婧,蒋军成.灰色理论和熵权法在长输管道风险评价中的应用[J].安全与环境学报,2010,10(5):201-203.PAN J,JIANG J C.Risk evaluation of long distance pipelines based on grey relevance theory and entropy-weighted method[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2010,10(5):201-203.
[23]闫书丽,肖新平.基于偏差最小化模型的多属性决策集成方法[J].系统工程,2005,23(10):73-76.YAN S L,XIAO X P.Integrated approach based on minimum deviation method for multi-attribute decision making[J].Systems Engineering,2005,23(10):73-76.
[24]张方伟,曲淑英,王志强,等.偏差最小化方法及其在多属性决策中的应用[J].山东大学学报(理学版),2007,42(3):32-35.ZHANG F W,QU S Y,WANG Z Q,et al.Application of the minimum deviation method for uncertain multi-attribute decision-making[J].Journal of Shandong University(Science Edition),2007,42(3):32-35.
[25]俞树荣,马欣,刘展,等.在役长输管道不同时期可靠性安全评价[J].兰州理工大学学报,2005,31(4):65-67.YU S R,MA X,LIU Z,et al.Safety evaluation of reliability of on-duty long pipeline in different operation period[J].Journal of Lanzhou University of Technology,2005,31(4):65-67.
[26]刘雯.天然气管道的运行可靠性评价技术[J].天然气工业,2001,21(4):94-97.LIU W.Technique of evaluating the reliability of natural gas pipeline operation[J].Natural Gas Industry,2001,21(4):94-97.
[2]李毅,王增国,詹燕民,等.基于Kent法的海底管道风险评价模型[J].油气储运,2014,33(12):1307-1309.LI Y,WANG Z G,ZHAN Y M,et al.Kent risk assessment m o d e l o f s u b s e a p i p e l i n e[J].O i l&G a s S t o r a g e a n d Transportation,2014,33(12):1307-1309.
[3]赵忠刚,姚安林,赵学芬,等.油气管道风险因素的权重赋值方法研究[J].天然气工业,2007,27(7):103-105.ZHAO Z G,YAO A L,ZHAO X F,et al.Method of assigning weight to risk factors of oil and gas pipeline[J].Natural Gas Industry,2007,27(7):103-105.
[4]姚安林,周立国,汪龙,等.天然气长输管道地区等级升级管理与风险评价[J].天然气工业,2017,37(1):124-130.YAO A L,ZHOU L G,WANG L,et al.Management of and risk evaluation on long-distance gas pipelines related to regional level upgrading[J].Natural Gas Industry,2017,37(1):124-130.
[5]帅健,单克.基于失效数据的油气管道定量风险评价方法[J].天然气工业,2018,38(9):129-138.SHUAI J,SHAN K.A quantitative risk assessment method for oil and gas pipelines based on failure data[J].Natural Gas Industry,2018,38(9):129-138.
[6]周立国,姚安林,付冉,等.Vague集法在油气管道失效可能性分析中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(10):91-95.ZHOU L G,YAO A L,FU R,et al.Application of Vague set method to failure possibility analysis of oil&gas pipeline[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(10):91-95.
[7]冯云飞,孟繁博,朱富斌,等.基于灰色层次分析法的长输管道风险评价[J].油气储运,2013,32(12):1289-1294.FENG Y F,MENG F B,ZHU F B,et al.Risk assessment of long-distance pipeline based on gray analytic hierarchy method[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2013,32(12):1289-1294.
[8]吕涛,郭庆,富莉,等.基于熵权灰色关联法的我国石油安全评价[J].中国矿业,2017,26(5):40-45.LYU T,GUO Q,FU L,et al.Research on evaluation of petroleum security in China based on entropy grey correlation method[J].China Mining Magazine,2017,26(5):40-45.
[9]田娜,陈保东,陈其胜.灰色关联分析在长输管道肯特风险评价中的应用[J].油气储运,2006,25(4):7-10.TIAN N,CHEN B D,CHEN Q S.The application of gray correlation analysis in W Kent Muhlbauer risk assessment of oil and gas pipeline[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2006,25(4):7-10.
[10]郑云萍,周妍妤,汪玉春.油气储运工程中综合评价指标权重应用与展望[J].油气储运,2014,33(9):928-932.ZHENG Y P,ZHOU Y Y,WANG Y C.Application and outlook for comprehensive evaluation index weight in oil&gas storage and transportation engineering[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(9):928-932.
[11]俞树荣,何鑫业,刘展,等.海洋石油管道失效可能性及失效后果权重[J].油气储运,2015,34(8):896-900.YU S R,HE X Y,LIU Z,et al.Failure probability of offshore oil pipelines and its failure consequence weight[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2015,34(8):896-900.
[12]刘沐宇,李海洋,田伟.基于熵权模糊综合评价的桥梁汽车燃烧风险分析[J].土木工程与管理学报,2014,31(2):51-55,61.LIU M Y,LI H Y,TIAN W.Study on vehicle burning accident during bridge operation period based on entropy weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Civil Engineering and Management,2014,31(2):51-55,61.
[13]ZU Z S.Generalized chi square method for the estimation of weights[J].Journal of Optimization Theory&Applications,2000,107(1):183-192.
[14]郭磊,刘凯,姚安林,等.西气东输管道坡面水毁风险变权综合评价[J].油气田地面工程,2011,30(11):1-4.GUO L,LIU K,YAO A L,et al.Variable weight synthetic risk assessment for slope water damage along West-East Gas Pipeline[J].Oil-Gasfield Surface Engineering,2011,30(11):1-4.
[15]狄彦,帅健,王晓霖,等.油气管道事故原因分析及分类方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(7):109-115.DI Y,SHUAI J,WANG X L,et al.Study on methods for classifying oil&gas pipeline incidents[J].China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(7):109-115.
[16]齐先志.某天然气管道风险评价实践[J].安全、健康和环境,2016,16(7):49-51.QI X Z.A natural gas pipeline risk assessment practice[J].Safety Health&Environment,2016,16(7):49-51.
[17]王婷,王新,李在蓉,等.国内外长输油气管道失效对比[J].油气储运,2017,36(11):1258-1264.WANG T,WANG X,LI Z R,et al.Comparison on failures of long-distance oil&gas pipelines at home and abroad[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2017,36(11):1258-1264.
[18]郭岩宝,傅晓娟,孟涛,等.基于变权-灰色理论的城镇燃气PE管道风险评价[J].压力容器,2015,32(3):59-65.GUO Y B,FU X J,MENG T,et al.Risk assessment of citygas pipeline based on variable weights and grey theory[J].Pressure Vessel,2015,32(3):59-65.
[19]蓝明新,唐兴中.基于熵权-灰色聚类决策法的油气管道设计方案优选研究[J].辽宁化工,2018,47(5):468-472.LAN M X,TANG X Z.Optimization of oil and gas pipelines designing scheme based on entropy-grey cluster analysis method[J].Liaoning Chemical,2018,47(5):468-472.
[20]曹康,姜峰,郑运虎.基于熵权模糊综合评价法的油气长输管道风险评估[J].辽宁石油化工大学学报,2015,35(5):27-30.CAO K,JIANG F,ZHENG Y H.Study on oil and gas pipeline risk assessment based on entropy weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method[J].Journal of Liaoning Shihua University,2015,35(5):27-30.
[21]郭磊,项卫东,刘英男.基于熵权法的新建长输天然气管道易损性评价[J].油气储运,2015,34(4):373-376.GUO L,XIANG W D,LIU Y N.Vulnerability assessment on new long-distance gas pipeline based on entropy method[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2015,34(4):373-376.
[22]潘婧,蒋军成.灰色理论和熵权法在长输管道风险评价中的应用[J].安全与环境学报,2010,10(5):201-203.PAN J,JIANG J C.Risk evaluation of long distance pipelines based on grey relevance theory and entropy-weighted method[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2010,10(5):201-203.
[23]闫书丽,肖新平.基于偏差最小化模型的多属性决策集成方法[J].系统工程,2005,23(10):73-76.YAN S L,XIAO X P.Integrated approach based on minimum deviation method for multi-attribute decision making[J].Systems Engineering,2005,23(10):73-76.
[24]张方伟,曲淑英,王志强,等.偏差最小化方法及其在多属性决策中的应用[J].山东大学学报(理学版),2007,42(3):32-35.ZHANG F W,QU S Y,WANG Z Q,et al.Application of the minimum deviation method for uncertain multi-attribute decision-making[J].Journal of Shandong University(Science Edition),2007,42(3):32-35.
[25]俞树荣,马欣,刘展,等.在役长输管道不同时期可靠性安全评价[J].兰州理工大学学报,2005,31(4):65-67.YU S R,MA X,LIU Z,et al.Safety evaluation of reliability of on-duty long pipeline in different operation period[J].Journal of Lanzhou University of Technology,2005,31(4):65-67.
[26]刘雯.天然气管道的运行可靠性评价技术[J].天然气工业,2001,21(4):94-97.LIU W.Technique of evaluating the reliability of natural gas pipeline operation[J].Natural Gas Industry,2001,21(4):94-97.