基于EKC的中国人均CO_2排放量增长率影响因素研究
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摘要
运用计量经济模型拓展研究了中国环境库兹涅茨曲线。研究结果表明,人均二氧化碳排放量与人均GDP、非化石能源所占比重、全要素生产率的关系显著,人均二氧化碳排放量与人均GDP呈现倒"U"型关系,非化石能源所占比重每提高1%,人均二氧化碳排放减少0. 041 t,全要素生产率每提高一个单位,人均二氧化碳排放减少1. 79 t。基于经济平衡增长思想,研究了中国人均二氧化碳排放量增长率与人均GDP增长率、碳排放结构系数增长率以及全要素生产率增长率的关系。研究结果揭示了环境库兹涅茨曲线中人均二氧化碳排放量不增长的条件是人均产出增长率小于等于效率和结构增速之和,计算出了"十三五"期间人均二氧化碳排放量增长率的允许变化区间为[-0. 94%,3. 9%]。
The econometric model was used to extend the research on the environmental Kuznets curve( EKC) in China. The results of the research showedthat per capita carbon dioxide emissions had significant relationship with per capita GDP,the percentage of non-fossil energy and TFP,but had an inverted U curve relationship with per capita GDP. If the percentage of non-fossil energy increased by1%,per capita carbon dioxide emissions would decrease by 0. 041 ton,TFP would increase by one unit,per capita carbon dioxide emissions would decrease by 1. 79 ton. The paper studied the relationships between growth rate of per capita carbon dioxide emissions and growth rate of per capita GDP in China,growth rate of carbon emission structure coefficient and growth rate of TFP based on the idea of balanced economic growth. The research results reveal that in the EKC,the per capita carbon dioxide emission does not increase if the per capita output growth rate is less than or equal to the sum of the efficiency and structural growth rate,and the allowable changing range of growth rate of per capita carbon dioxide emissions is during the 13 th Five-Year plan period.
The econometric model was used to extend the research on the environmental Kuznets curve( EKC) in China. The results of the research showedthat per capita carbon dioxide emissions had significant relationship with per capita GDP,the percentage of non-fossil energy and TFP,but had an inverted U curve relationship with per capita GDP. If the percentage of non-fossil energy increased by1%,per capita carbon dioxide emissions would decrease by 0. 041 ton,TFP would increase by one unit,per capita carbon dioxide emissions would decrease by 1. 79 ton. The paper studied the relationships between growth rate of per capita carbon dioxide emissions and growth rate of per capita GDP in China,growth rate of carbon emission structure coefficient and growth rate of TFP based on the idea of balanced economic growth. The research results reveal that in the EKC,the per capita carbon dioxide emission does not increase if the per capita output growth rate is less than or equal to the sum of the efficiency and structural growth rate,and the allowable changing range of growth rate of per capita carbon dioxide emissions is during the 13 th Five-Year plan period.
引文
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[12]唐葆君,周慧羚,曹红,等. APEC成员碳排放与经济增长及对中国的政策启示[J].管理学报,2015,12(12):1865-1871.
[13]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004,50(10):35-44.
[14]梁广华.能源与经济增长的关系研究[J].中国电力,2012,45(10):22-26.
[2]宋涛,郑挺国,佟连军,等.基于面板数据模型的中国省区环境分析[J].中国软科学,2006,21(10):121-127.
[3]冯烽,叶阿忠.中国的碳排放与经济增长满足EKC假说吗?:基于半参数面板数据模型的预测[J].预测,2013,32(3):8-12.
[4]杨仲山,谢长.贸易开放、FDI与中国碳排放EKC基于动态面板回归的实证研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2015,45(24):71-79.
[5]陈玉龙,钟章奇,吴乐英,等.中国可再生能源消费、对外贸易和碳排放的关系[J].软科学,2017,31(9):49-52.
[6]刘华军,裴延峰.我国雾霾污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线检验[J].统计研究,2017,34(3):45-54.
[7]林伯强,蒋竺均.中国二氧化碳的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分析[J].管理世界,2009,25(4):27-36.
[8]蒋萍,余厚强. EKC拐点类型、形成过程及影响因素[J].财经问题研究,2010,32(6):3-9.
[9]陈祖海,雷朱家华.中国环境污染变动的时空特征及其经济驱动因素[J].地理研究,2015,34(11):2165-2178.
[10]穆怀中,张梦遥.人口老龄化、经济增长与环境污染关系研究[J].经济问题探索,2016,37(9):11-17.
[11]李佳佳,罗能生.制度安排对中国环境库兹涅茨曲线的影响研究[J].管理学报,2017,14(1):100-110.
[12]唐葆君,周慧羚,曹红,等. APEC成员碳排放与经济增长及对中国的政策启示[J].管理学报,2015,12(12):1865-1871.
[13]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004,50(10):35-44.
[14]梁广华.能源与经济增长的关系研究[J].中国电力,2012,45(10):22-26.