有源配电网设备利用率影响因子体系及其价值计算方法
|
摘要
针对我国配电网设备利用率低的问题,计及分布式电源的影响构建了一套有源配电网设备利用率影响因子体系,设计了一种基于Pignistic概率距离的影响因子价值计算方法。首先,从直接反映配电网设备利用率的指标容量因子和负载率展开影响因子分析,对比了有/无源配电网中影响因子的差异,进一步基于设备负载特性、设备运行时间及设备参数3个方面,构建了一套有源配电网设备利用率影响因子体系;然后,基于Pignistic概率距离最优证据合成法,提出了一种具有"偏离折扣"特征的层次分析法-熵权法组合赋权法,用于计算影响因子价值;最后,通过实例分析验证了所提影响因子体系和价值计算方法的有效性。
Aiming at the problem of low EUEDN(Equipment Utilization Efficiency of Distribution Network) in China,taking the influence of distributed generation into account,a set of influence indicator system for equipment utilization efficiency of active distribution network is established and a value calculation method based on Pignistic probability distance is designed. Firstly,the influence indicators of capacity factor and load rate,which are the indexes reflecting the EUEDN directly,are analyzed,the differences between the influence indicator of active distribution network and passive distribution network are compared,and a set of influence indicator system for equipment utilization efficiency of active distribution network is established from three aspects of load characteristics of equipment,operation time of equipment and equipment parameters. Then,based on the Pignistic probability distance optimal evidence synthesis method,a combined weighting method based on AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and entropy weight method with "deviation discount"feature is proposed,which is used to calculate the values of influence indicators. Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed influence indicator system and value calculation method is verified by case analysis.
Aiming at the problem of low EUEDN(Equipment Utilization Efficiency of Distribution Network) in China,taking the influence of distributed generation into account,a set of influence indicator system for equipment utilization efficiency of active distribution network is established and a value calculation method based on Pignistic probability distance is designed. Firstly,the influence indicators of capacity factor and load rate,which are the indexes reflecting the EUEDN directly,are analyzed,the differences between the influence indicator of active distribution network and passive distribution network are compared,and a set of influence indicator system for equipment utilization efficiency of active distribution network is established from three aspects of load characteristics of equipment,operation time of equipment and equipment parameters. Then,based on the Pignistic probability distance optimal evidence synthesis method,a combined weighting method based on AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and entropy weight method with "deviation discount"feature is proposed,which is used to calculate the values of influence indicators. Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed influence indicator system and value calculation method is verified by case analysis.
引文
[1]国家能源局.配电网建设改造行动计划(2015设改造行动计年)[R].北京:国家能源局,2015.
[2]刘洪,杨卫红,王成山,等.配电网设备利用率评价标准与提升措施[J].电网技术,2014,38(2):419-423.LIU Hong,YANG Weihong,WANG Chengshan,et al. Assessment criteria and improvement measures of equipment utilization on distribution network[J]. Power System Technology,2014,38(2):419-423.
[3]别少勇.配电网设备利用率综合评价体系与方法研究[D].长沙:湖南大学,2016.BIE Shaoyong. Research on comprehensive evaluation system and method of distribution network equipment utilization[D]. Changsha:Hunan University,2016.
[4]曹磊.中压配电网设备利用率综合评价体系研究[D].天津:天津大学,2012.CAO Lei. Research on comprehensive evaluation system of medium voltage equipment utilization[D]. Tianjin:Tianjin University,2012.
[5]HU Z L,ZHANG Y J,LI C B,et al. Utilization efficiency of electrical equipment within life cycle assessment:indexes,analysis and a case[J]. Energy,2015,88:885-896.
[6]YE L H,HU Z L,LI C B,et al. The reasonable range of life cycle utilization rate of distribution network equipment[J]. IEEE Access,2018,6(99):23948-23959.
[7]FANG X,MA S,YANG Q,et al. Cooperative energy dispatch for multiple autonomous microgrids with distributed renewable sources and storages[J]. Energy,2016,99:48-57.
[8]柳睿,杨镜非,程浩忠,等.分布式电源并网的综合评价[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2013,25(1):34-39.LIU Rui,YANG Jingfei,CHENG Haozhong,et al. Comprehensive evaluation of grid-connected distributed generation[J]. Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2013,25(1):34-39.
[9]王昌照,汪隆君,王钢,等.分布式电源出力与负荷相关性对配电网可靠性的影响分析[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(6):99-105.WANG Changzhao,WANG Longjun,WANG Gang,et al. Impact of distributed generation output and load correlation on distribution network reliability[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(6):99-105.
[10]杨小彬,李和明,尹忠东,等.基于层次分析法的配电网能效指标体系[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(21):146-150,195.YANG Xiaobin,LI Heming,YIN Zhongdong,et al. Energy efficiency index system for distribution network based on analytic hierarchy process[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(21):146-150,195.
[11]刘自发,韦涛,李梦渔,等.基于改进层次分析法的交、直流微电网综合评估[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(3):60-66,78.LIU Zifa,WEI Tao,LI Mengyu,et al. Comprehensive evaluation based on improved analytic hierarchy process for AC/DC microgrid[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(3):60-66,78.
[12]欧阳森,刘丽媛.配电网用电可靠性指标体系及综合评估方法[J].电网技术,2017,41(1):215-222.OUYANG Sen,LIU Liyuan. Reliability index system of distribution network for power consumer and its comprehensive assessment method[J]. Power System Technology,2017,41(1):215-222.
[13]杨廷方,张航,黄立滨,等.基于改进型主成分分析的电力变压器潜伏性故障诊断[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(6):149-153,165.YANG Tingfang,ZHANG Hang,HUANG Libin,et al. Incipient fault diagnosis based on improved principal component analysis for power transformer[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(6):149-153,165.
[14]沈阳武,彭晓涛,施通勤,等.基于最优组合权重的电能质量灰色综合评价方法[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(10):67-73.SHEN Yangwu,PENG Xiaotao,SHI Tongqin,et al. A grey comprehensive evaluation method of power quality based on optimal combination weight[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(10):67-73.
[15]董福贵,张也,尚美美.分布式能源系统多指标综合评价研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(12):3214-3222.DONG Fugui,ZHANG Ye,SHANG Meimei. Multi-criteria comprehensive evaluation of distributed energy system[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(12):3214-3222.
[16]马丽叶,卢志刚,朱连波.基于证据融合理论的配电网经济运行指标权重的闭环计算方法[J].电网技术,2011,35(10):110-116.MA Liye,LU Zhigang,ZHU Lianbo. A closed-loop approach to calculate economical operation indices of distribution network based on dempster-shafer evidence theory[J]. Power System Technology,2011,35(10):110-116.
[17]罗毅,李昱龙.基于熵权法和灰色关联分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策[J].电网技术,2013,37(1):77-81.LUO Yi, LI Yulong. Comprehensive decision-making of transmission network planning based on entropy weight and grey relational analysis[J]. Power System Technology,2013,37(1):77-81.
[18]WALLEY P. Measures of uncertainty in expert systems[J]. Artificial Intelligence,1996,83(1):1-58.
[19]TESSEM B. Approximations for efficient computation in the theory of evidence[J]. Artificial Intelligence,1993,61(2):315-329.
[20] LIU W R. Analyzing the degree of conflict among belief functions[J]. Artificial Intelligence,2006,170(11):909-924.
[21]陈圣群,王应明.基于Pignistic概率距离的最优证据合成法[J].信息与控制,2013,42(2):213-217,228.CHEN Shengqun,WANG Yingming. Optimal combination of evidence based on pignistic probability distance[J]. Information and Control,2013,42(2):213-217,228.
[22]罗志坤,刘潇潇,陈星莺,等.变电站能效评估指标体系及建模方法[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(3):132-138.LUO Zhikun,LIU Xiaoxiao,CHEN Xingying,et al. Energy efficiency evaluation index system and modeling method for substation[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(3):132-138.
[23]杨志超,张成龙,葛乐,等.基于熵权法的绝缘子污闪状态模糊综合评价[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(4):90-94.YANG Zhichao,ZHANG Chenglong,GE Le,et al. Comprehensive fuzzy evaluation based on entropy weight method for insulator flashover pollution[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(4):90-94.
[24]LEFEVRE E,COLOT O,VANNOORENBERGHE P. Belief function combination and conflict management[J]. Information Fusion,2002,3(2):149-162.
[25]DEMPSTER A P. Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multivalued mapping[J]. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics,1967,38(2):325-339.
[26] SHAFER G A. Mathematical theory of evidence[M]. Princeton,New Jersey,USA:Princeton University Press,1976:19-63.
[2]刘洪,杨卫红,王成山,等.配电网设备利用率评价标准与提升措施[J].电网技术,2014,38(2):419-423.LIU Hong,YANG Weihong,WANG Chengshan,et al. Assessment criteria and improvement measures of equipment utilization on distribution network[J]. Power System Technology,2014,38(2):419-423.
[3]别少勇.配电网设备利用率综合评价体系与方法研究[D].长沙:湖南大学,2016.BIE Shaoyong. Research on comprehensive evaluation system and method of distribution network equipment utilization[D]. Changsha:Hunan University,2016.
[4]曹磊.中压配电网设备利用率综合评价体系研究[D].天津:天津大学,2012.CAO Lei. Research on comprehensive evaluation system of medium voltage equipment utilization[D]. Tianjin:Tianjin University,2012.
[5]HU Z L,ZHANG Y J,LI C B,et al. Utilization efficiency of electrical equipment within life cycle assessment:indexes,analysis and a case[J]. Energy,2015,88:885-896.
[6]YE L H,HU Z L,LI C B,et al. The reasonable range of life cycle utilization rate of distribution network equipment[J]. IEEE Access,2018,6(99):23948-23959.
[7]FANG X,MA S,YANG Q,et al. Cooperative energy dispatch for multiple autonomous microgrids with distributed renewable sources and storages[J]. Energy,2016,99:48-57.
[8]柳睿,杨镜非,程浩忠,等.分布式电源并网的综合评价[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2013,25(1):34-39.LIU Rui,YANG Jingfei,CHENG Haozhong,et al. Comprehensive evaluation of grid-connected distributed generation[J]. Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2013,25(1):34-39.
[9]王昌照,汪隆君,王钢,等.分布式电源出力与负荷相关性对配电网可靠性的影响分析[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(6):99-105.WANG Changzhao,WANG Longjun,WANG Gang,et al. Impact of distributed generation output and load correlation on distribution network reliability[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(6):99-105.
[10]杨小彬,李和明,尹忠东,等.基于层次分析法的配电网能效指标体系[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(21):146-150,195.YANG Xiaobin,LI Heming,YIN Zhongdong,et al. Energy efficiency index system for distribution network based on analytic hierarchy process[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(21):146-150,195.
[11]刘自发,韦涛,李梦渔,等.基于改进层次分析法的交、直流微电网综合评估[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(3):60-66,78.LIU Zifa,WEI Tao,LI Mengyu,et al. Comprehensive evaluation based on improved analytic hierarchy process for AC/DC microgrid[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(3):60-66,78.
[12]欧阳森,刘丽媛.配电网用电可靠性指标体系及综合评估方法[J].电网技术,2017,41(1):215-222.OUYANG Sen,LIU Liyuan. Reliability index system of distribution network for power consumer and its comprehensive assessment method[J]. Power System Technology,2017,41(1):215-222.
[13]杨廷方,张航,黄立滨,等.基于改进型主成分分析的电力变压器潜伏性故障诊断[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(6):149-153,165.YANG Tingfang,ZHANG Hang,HUANG Libin,et al. Incipient fault diagnosis based on improved principal component analysis for power transformer[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(6):149-153,165.
[14]沈阳武,彭晓涛,施通勤,等.基于最优组合权重的电能质量灰色综合评价方法[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(10):67-73.SHEN Yangwu,PENG Xiaotao,SHI Tongqin,et al. A grey comprehensive evaluation method of power quality based on optimal combination weight[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(10):67-73.
[15]董福贵,张也,尚美美.分布式能源系统多指标综合评价研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(12):3214-3222.DONG Fugui,ZHANG Ye,SHANG Meimei. Multi-criteria comprehensive evaluation of distributed energy system[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(12):3214-3222.
[16]马丽叶,卢志刚,朱连波.基于证据融合理论的配电网经济运行指标权重的闭环计算方法[J].电网技术,2011,35(10):110-116.MA Liye,LU Zhigang,ZHU Lianbo. A closed-loop approach to calculate economical operation indices of distribution network based on dempster-shafer evidence theory[J]. Power System Technology,2011,35(10):110-116.
[17]罗毅,李昱龙.基于熵权法和灰色关联分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策[J].电网技术,2013,37(1):77-81.LUO Yi, LI Yulong. Comprehensive decision-making of transmission network planning based on entropy weight and grey relational analysis[J]. Power System Technology,2013,37(1):77-81.
[18]WALLEY P. Measures of uncertainty in expert systems[J]. Artificial Intelligence,1996,83(1):1-58.
[19]TESSEM B. Approximations for efficient computation in the theory of evidence[J]. Artificial Intelligence,1993,61(2):315-329.
[20] LIU W R. Analyzing the degree of conflict among belief functions[J]. Artificial Intelligence,2006,170(11):909-924.
[21]陈圣群,王应明.基于Pignistic概率距离的最优证据合成法[J].信息与控制,2013,42(2):213-217,228.CHEN Shengqun,WANG Yingming. Optimal combination of evidence based on pignistic probability distance[J]. Information and Control,2013,42(2):213-217,228.
[22]罗志坤,刘潇潇,陈星莺,等.变电站能效评估指标体系及建模方法[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(3):132-138.LUO Zhikun,LIU Xiaoxiao,CHEN Xingying,et al. Energy efficiency evaluation index system and modeling method for substation[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(3):132-138.
[23]杨志超,张成龙,葛乐,等.基于熵权法的绝缘子污闪状态模糊综合评价[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(4):90-94.YANG Zhichao,ZHANG Chenglong,GE Le,et al. Comprehensive fuzzy evaluation based on entropy weight method for insulator flashover pollution[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(4):90-94.
[24]LEFEVRE E,COLOT O,VANNOORENBERGHE P. Belief function combination and conflict management[J]. Information Fusion,2002,3(2):149-162.
[25]DEMPSTER A P. Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multivalued mapping[J]. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics,1967,38(2):325-339.
[26] SHAFER G A. Mathematical theory of evidence[M]. Princeton,New Jersey,USA:Princeton University Press,1976:19-63.