广东省农村金融信贷发展与经济增长的关系研究
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摘要
【目的】广东省自改革开放以来,农村金融信贷在现代农村发展中地位日渐突出。分析广东省改革开放以来农村金融信贷与经济增长的关系,为广东省未来的农村经济增长提供参考。【方法】运用描述性研究法和文献研究法对当前广东省农村金融信贷以及农村经济的发展现状进行理论和现状分析。基于改革开放以来的数据,将广东省的农村金融信贷从规模、效率与结构3个层面进行具体分解,运用Eviews7.2进行实证分析,对数据进行平稳性检验并进行一定处理以建立Var模型,通过Granger因果检验与脉冲响应图对两者关系进行深入探讨。【结果】农村金融信贷的规模、效率对农村经济的增长影响显著,而结构的作用力显得相对薄弱。长期来看,农村信贷的3个维度都会对农村经济产生一定程度影响。【结论】在政府的引导下,应扩大农村信贷规模,提升农村信贷效率,加强农村信贷后的监督,建立较为完善的担保机制。
[Objective]Since the reform and opening up in Guangdong Province, rural financial credit has become increasingly prominent in modern rural development. This paper analyzed the relationship between rural financial credit and economic growth since the reform and opening up of Guangdong Province in order to provide reference for the future rural economic growth. [Method]This paper analyzed the current situation of rural financial credit and rural economy development in Guangdong Province from the perspectives of theory and present situation with descriptive research method and literature research method. Based on the data since the reform and opening up, this paper analyzed the scale, efficiency and structure of rural financial credit in Guangdong Province, and made an empirical analysis with Eviws7.2. The stationary test of the data was carried out and processed to establish the Var model. The relationship between the two was explored by Granger causality test and the impulse response diagram.[Result]It was found that the scale and efficiency of rural financial credit had a significant impact on the growth of rural economy while the structure had a relatively weak impact on that. In the long run, the three dimensions of rural credit will have certain impact on the rural economy. [Conclusion]Under the guidance of government, we should expand the scale of rural credit, improve the efficiency of rural credit,strengthen supervision upon rural credit and establish a perfect guarantee mechanism.
[Objective]Since the reform and opening up in Guangdong Province, rural financial credit has become increasingly prominent in modern rural development. This paper analyzed the relationship between rural financial credit and economic growth since the reform and opening up of Guangdong Province in order to provide reference for the future rural economic growth. [Method]This paper analyzed the current situation of rural financial credit and rural economy development in Guangdong Province from the perspectives of theory and present situation with descriptive research method and literature research method. Based on the data since the reform and opening up, this paper analyzed the scale, efficiency and structure of rural financial credit in Guangdong Province, and made an empirical analysis with Eviws7.2. The stationary test of the data was carried out and processed to establish the Var model. The relationship between the two was explored by Granger causality test and the impulse response diagram.[Result]It was found that the scale and efficiency of rural financial credit had a significant impact on the growth of rural economy while the structure had a relatively weak impact on that. In the long run, the three dimensions of rural credit will have certain impact on the rural economy. [Conclusion]Under the guidance of government, we should expand the scale of rural credit, improve the efficiency of rural credit,strengthen supervision upon rural credit and establish a perfect guarantee mechanism.
引文
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[12]任乐,王性玉,赵辉.农户信贷可得性和最优贷款额度的理论分析与实证检验[J].管理学刊,2017(3):32-41.REN L,WANG X Y.Theoretical analysis and empirical test on the availability of peasant household credit and the optimal loan limit[J].Journal of management,2017(3):32-41.
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[15]王曙光.金融发展理论[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2010:320.WANG S G.Theory of financial development[M].Beijing:China Development Press,2010:320.
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[17]姚耀军,和丕禅.基于面板数据的中国农业信贷绩效研究[J].中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2004(3):21-24.YAO Y J,HE P C.Research on the performance of agricultural credit in China based on panel data[J].Journal of China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2004(3):21-24.
[18]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模--Eviews应用及实例[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2016.GAO T M.Econometric analysis methods and modeling-application and examples of Eviews[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2016.
[19]王少平,杨继生,欧阳志刚.计量经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2011.WANG S P,YANG J S,OUYANG Z G.Econometrics[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2011.
[20]耿玉璧,夏咏,焦学伟.欠发达地区农村金融效率实证研究--以新疆为例[J].广东农业科学,2016(1):164-168.GENG Y B,XIA Y,JIAO X W.Empirical study on rural financial efficiency in underdeveloped areas-a case study of Xinjiang[J].Guangdong Agricultural Science,2016(1):164-168.
[21]黄惠春,李静.利率市场化、市场势力与农村金融市场效率损失--以江苏为例[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015(1):32-40,124.HUANG H C,LI J.Interest rate liberalization,market power and efficiency loss of rural financial market-a case study of Jiangsu province[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2015(1):32-40,124.
[22]汪昌云,钟腾.金融市场化提高了农户信贷获得吗?--基于农户调查的实证研究[J].经济研究,2014(10):33-45.WANG C Y,ZHONG T.Does financial liberalization increase rural households’credit availability?-Empirical analysis based on rural household surveysv[J].Economic research,2014(10):33-45.
[2]IQBAL F.The demand for funds by agricultural households:evidences from rural India[J].Journal of development studies,1983,20(1):68-86.
[3]IQBAL F.The demand and supply of funds among agricultural households in India//SINGH I,SQUIRE L,STRAUSS J.Agricultural household models:extensions,application and policy[M].World Bank Publication,John Hopkins University press,Baltimore and London,1986:183-205.
[4]Jensen E.The farm credit system as a government-sponsored enterprise[J].Review of agricultural economics,2000,22(2):326-335.
[5]张建波,杨国颂.我国农村信贷结构与农村经济发展关系的实证研究[J].经济经纬,2010(5):101-105.ZHANG J B,YANG G S.Empirical study on the relationship between rural credit structure and rural economic development in China[J].Economic fabric,2010(5):101-105.
[6]王冬生.中国信贷市场发展与经济增长:1981-2007[J].统计与决策,2010(3):141-143.WANG D S.Development of China's credit market and economic growth:1981-2007[J].Statistics and decision-making,2010(3):141-143.
[7]杨洋.我国信贷市场发展与经济增长的实证分析[J].金融经济,2010(3):15-19.YANG Y.Empirical analysis of the development of credit market and economic growth in China[J].Financial and economic,2010(3):15-19.
[8]谭崇台,唐道远.农村金融发展、农村金融需求对农村经济增长影响的实证[J].统计与决策,2015(10):110-113.TAN C T,TANG D Y.Empirical study on the influence of rural financial development and rural financial demand on rural economic growth[J].Statistics and decision-making,2015(10):110-113.
[9]唐勇.基于VAR模型的新疆农村信贷与农户收入关系实证研究[J].石河子大学学报,2011(4):8-11.TANG Y.VAR model-based empirical study on the relationship between rural credit and household income in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Shihezi University,2011(4):8-11.
[10]万宇涛,杨立社.农户正规信贷体系的有效性评价[J].广东农业科学,2015(23):200-206.WAN Y T,YANG L S.Evaluation of the effectiveness of farmer formal credit system[J].Guangdong agricultural science,2015(23):200-206.
[11]李富有,郭小叶.我国农村信贷结构与农村经济增长关系研究[J].管理学刊,2016(1):35-43.LI F Y,GUO X Y.Research on the relationship between rural credit structure and rural economic growth in China[J].Journal of management,2016(1):35-43.
[12]任乐,王性玉,赵辉.农户信贷可得性和最优贷款额度的理论分析与实证检验[J].管理学刊,2017(3):32-41.REN L,WANG X Y.Theoretical analysis and empirical test on the availability of peasant household credit and the optimal loan limit[J].Journal of management,2017(3):32-41.
[13]约瑟夫·熊彼特.经济发展[M].北京:商务印书馆,1990.Joseph Schumpeter.The economic development[M].Beijing:Commercial Press,1990.
[14]吕德宏,朱莹.农户小额信贷风险影响因素层次差异性研究[J].管理评论,2017,29(1):33-41.LV D H,ZHU Y.Research on the hierarchical difference of influencing factors of peasant household micro-credit risk[J].Management review,2017,29(1):33-41.
[15]王曙光.金融发展理论[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2010:320.WANG S G.Theory of financial development[M].Beijing:China Development Press,2010:320.
[16]Gaiotti,Eugenio.Credit availability and investment:Lessons from the“great recession”[J].European Economic Review,2013,59:212-227.
[17]姚耀军,和丕禅.基于面板数据的中国农业信贷绩效研究[J].中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2004(3):21-24.YAO Y J,HE P C.Research on the performance of agricultural credit in China based on panel data[J].Journal of China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2004(3):21-24.
[18]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模--Eviews应用及实例[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2016.GAO T M.Econometric analysis methods and modeling-application and examples of Eviews[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2016.
[19]王少平,杨继生,欧阳志刚.计量经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2011.WANG S P,YANG J S,OUYANG Z G.Econometrics[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2011.
[20]耿玉璧,夏咏,焦学伟.欠发达地区农村金融效率实证研究--以新疆为例[J].广东农业科学,2016(1):164-168.GENG Y B,XIA Y,JIAO X W.Empirical study on rural financial efficiency in underdeveloped areas-a case study of Xinjiang[J].Guangdong Agricultural Science,2016(1):164-168.
[21]黄惠春,李静.利率市场化、市场势力与农村金融市场效率损失--以江苏为例[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015(1):32-40,124.HUANG H C,LI J.Interest rate liberalization,market power and efficiency loss of rural financial market-a case study of Jiangsu province[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2015(1):32-40,124.
[22]汪昌云,钟腾.金融市场化提高了农户信贷获得吗?--基于农户调查的实证研究[J].经济研究,2014(10):33-45.WANG C Y,ZHONG T.Does financial liberalization increase rural households’credit availability?-Empirical analysis based on rural household surveysv[J].Economic research,2014(10):33-45.