基于特征向量中心度的技术会聚评价指标研究
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摘要
针对技术会聚评价指标存在的不足,以综合评价技术会聚过程中技术领域的影响力及关联度两个重要维度出发,分别采用关联规则探析发生技术会聚的领域,交叉影响分析法测度技术领域间的影响力方向及作用强度,并以此为基础通过对技术会聚网络进行特征向量中心度分析得出技术会聚影响力指标。实证结果显示,评价指标具有明确的理论意义及实践价值,能够被应用于会聚过程中技术领域价值的判定。
Aiming at the deficiency of evaluation index of converging technology, based on the two important dimensions of the comprehensive evaluation which named influence and relevance of technology, association rule is used to excavate converging technology, cross impact analysis is used to measure the direction and intensity of influence in the field of technology. On this basis, the influence index of converging technology is obtained by analyzing the eigenvector centrality. The empirical analysis proves that the index has definite theoretical significance and practical value. The index can be applied to determine the value of technology in the process of converging.
Aiming at the deficiency of evaluation index of converging technology, based on the two important dimensions of the comprehensive evaluation which named influence and relevance of technology, association rule is used to excavate converging technology, cross impact analysis is used to measure the direction and intensity of influence in the field of technology. On this basis, the influence index of converging technology is obtained by analyzing the eigenvector centrality. The empirical analysis proves that the index has definite theoretical significance and practical value. The index can be applied to determine the value of technology in the process of converging.
引文
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[2] Hacklin F, Battistini B, Krogh GV. Strategic Choices in Converging Industries[J]. Mit Sloan Management Review. 2013, 55(1): 65-73.
[3] 栾春娟, 刘则渊, 王贤文. 发散与收敛:技术关联度的演变趋势分析——以全球太阳能技术的专利计量为例[J]. 研究与发展管理,2013, 25(4): 87-95.
[4] Karvonen M, K?ssi T. Patent Citations as a Tool for Analysing the Early Stages of Convergence[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2013, 80(6): 1094-1107.
[5] Lee WS, Han EJ, Sohn SY. Predicting the Pattern of Technology Convergence Using Big-data Technology on Large-scale Triadic Patents[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2015, 100: 317-329.
[6] Lee C, Park G, Kang J. TheImpact of Convergence Between Science and Technology on Innovation[J]. Journal of Technology Transfer. 2018, 43(1): 1-23.
[7] 刘娜, 毛荐其, 余光胜. 技术会聚研究探析与展望[J]. 科研管理,2017,38(12): 20-28.
[8] Choi C, Kim S, Park Y. A Patent-based Cross Impact Analysis for Quantitative Estimation of Technological Impact: The Case of Information and Communication Technology[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2007, 74(8): 1296-1314.
[9] 黄斌, 黄鲁成, 吴菲菲,等.基于专利交叉影响分析法的技术影响关系研究[J]. 科技管理研究,2015,337(15): 147-151.
[10] 黄鲁成, 黄斌, 吴菲菲,等. 基于专利共类的信息与生物技术融合趋势分析[J]. 情报杂志,2014 (8): 59-63.
[11] Asan SS, Asan U. Qualitative Cross-impact Analysis with Time Consideration[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2007, 74(5): 627-644.
[12] 栾春娟. 共性技术测度体系及其应用[M]: 科学出版社,2015.
[13] Choi JY, Jeong S, Kim K. A Study on Diffusion Pattern of Technology Convergence&58; Patent Analysis for Korea[J]. Sustainability,2015, 7(9): 11546-11569.
[14] Cho Y, Kim M. Entropy and Gravity Concepts as New Methodological Indexes to Investigate Technological Convergence: Patent Network-Based Approach[J]. Plos One,2014, 9(6): e98009.
[15] 袁思达. 技术预见德尔菲调查中共性技术课题识别研究[J]. 科学学与科学技术管理,2009, 30(10): 21-26.
[16] Kim Y, Jung U, Jeong S. A Study on the Status and Supporting Strategy of National R&D Programs Related to the Convergence Technology[M]. International Academic Conferences,2017.
[17] No HJ, Park Y. Trajectory Patterns of Technology Fusion: Trend Analysis and Taxonomical Grouping in Nanobiotechnology[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2010, 77(1): 63-75.
[18] Ernst H. Patent Information for Strategic Technology Management[J]. World Patent Information,2003, 25(3): 233-242.
[19] Kim M-S, Kim C. On A Patent Analysis Method for Technological Convergence[J]. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences,2012, 40: 657-663.
[20] Si HJ, Kim Y. Measuring Relatedness between Technological Fields[J]. Scientometrics,2010, 83(2): 435-454.
[21] Jamali HR, Azadi-Ahmadabadi G, Asadi S. Interdisciplinary Relations of Converging Technologies: Nano–Bio–Info–Cogno (NBIC)[J]. Scientometrics,2018: 1-19.
[22] 李姝影, 方曙. 测度技术融合与趋势的数据分析方法研究进展[J]. 数据分析与知识发现,2017, 1(7): 2-12.
[23] 栾春娟, 侯剑华, 王贤文,等. 全球竞争对手的技术网络绘制与共性技术识别——以波音与空客为例[J]. 科技进步与对策,2014, 31(2): 71-78.
[24] Kranakis E. Advances in Network Analysis and its Applications[J]. Mathematics in Industry,2013, 18.
[25] Park H, Yoon J. Assessing Coreness and Intermediarity of Technology Sectors Using Patent Co-classification Analysis: The Case of Korean National R&D[J]. Scientometrics,2014, 98(2): 853-890.
[26] 王贤文, 刘趁, 毛文莉. 基于专利共被引方法的技术聚类分析——以苹果公司专利为例[J]. 科学与管理,2014(5): 31-37.
[27] 蔡伟杰, 张晓辉, 朱建秋,等. 关联规则挖掘综述[J]. 计算机工程,2001, 27(5): 31-33.
[28] Gordon TJ, Hayward H. Initial Experiments with the Cross Impact Matrix Method of Orecasting[J]. Futures,1968, 1(2): 100-116.
[29] Geum Y, Kim C, Lee S,et al. Technological Convergence of IT and BT: Evidence from Patent Analysis[J]. ETRI Journal,2012, 34(3): 439-449.
[30] Newman M. Networks: An Introduction[J]. Astronomische Nachrichten,2010, 327(8): 741–743.
[31] Freeman LC. ASet of Measures of Centrality Based on Betweenness[J]. Sociometry,1977, 40(1): 35-41.
[32] Brandes U. A Faster Algorithm for Betweenness Centrality[J]. Journal of Mathematical Sociology,2001, 25(2): 163-177.
[33] Borgatti SP. Centrality and Network Flow[J]. Social Networks,2005, 27(1): 55-71.
[34] Rochat Y. Closeness Centrality Extended To Unconnected Graphs: The Harmonic Centrality Index,2009.
[35] Bavelas A. Communication Patterns in Task-oriented Groups[J]. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America,1950, 22(6): 725-730.
[36] Newman MEJ. The Mathematics of Networks[J]. 2007.
[37] Katz L. ANew Status Index Derived from Sociometric Analysis[J]. Psychometrika,1953, 18(1): 39-43.
[38] Bonacich P. Simultaneous Group and Individual Centralities[J]. Social Networks,1991, 13(2): 155-168.