时间偏好的区际差异:分布特征与影响因素
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摘要
时间偏好在诸多经济问题上起着基础性作用,由众多行为个体所组成的社会整体时间偏好对资源合理配置及可持续发展具有重要意义。现有研究主要集中在我国整体社会贴现率取值的确定上,对社会贴现率影响因素的实证探讨及社会贴现率的区际差异分析亟需完善。数据表现与影响因素入手的区际差异分析为我国分地区采用差别社会贴现率提供了理论依据及数值参考,并为针对性调控我国社会贴现率提供了新的思路。研究结果显示:我国东、中、西部区域社会贴现率数值各异,且资本社会机会成本(SOC)、加权社会贴现率(SRTP-SOC)存在地域递减的分布特征;收入增长率、死亡率、消费边际效用弹性、消费增长率及市场利率均会对我国社会贴现率产生影响,且西部地区社会贴现率对居民消费特征及资本市场的变化反应更为敏感,东部地区社会贴现率长期均衡水平不受居民收入增长率及市场利率的影响。
Time preference plays a fundamental role in many economic theories and social time preference which is composed of all the individuals' willing is of great significance for the rational allocation of resources and sustainable development. The existing domestic researches mainly focus on the determination of social discount rate nationally,and the empirical study on influence factors and interregional difference analysis need to be refined. The interregional difference analysis of numerical value and influence factors provide theory basis for the adoption of discriminating social discount rate regionally and data references for the determination of social discount rate; besides,it comes up with a new train of thought to control social discount rate pointedly.The results show that the numerical value of social discount rate in eastern,central and western regions are different,and the average level of SOC and SRTP-SOC in eastern regions are the highest,both of which are the lowest in western regions though. In addition,all factors of revenue growth,mortality,marginal utility elasticity,consumption increase rate and market interest have effects on social discount rate. In comparison,social discount rate in western regions is more sensitive to the fluctuation of consumption and changes in capital markets and the equilibrium level of social discount rate in eastern regions has nothing to do with income and market interest in the long term.
Time preference plays a fundamental role in many economic theories and social time preference which is composed of all the individuals' willing is of great significance for the rational allocation of resources and sustainable development. The existing domestic researches mainly focus on the determination of social discount rate nationally,and the empirical study on influence factors and interregional difference analysis need to be refined. The interregional difference analysis of numerical value and influence factors provide theory basis for the adoption of discriminating social discount rate regionally and data references for the determination of social discount rate; besides,it comes up with a new train of thought to control social discount rate pointedly.The results show that the numerical value of social discount rate in eastern,central and western regions are different,and the average level of SOC and SRTP-SOC in eastern regions are the highest,both of which are the lowest in western regions though. In addition,all factors of revenue growth,mortality,marginal utility elasticity,consumption increase rate and market interest have effects on social discount rate. In comparison,social discount rate in western regions is more sensitive to the fluctuation of consumption and changes in capital markets and the equilibrium level of social discount rate in eastern regions has nothing to do with income and market interest in the long term.
引文
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[30]邵颖红,黄渝祥.公共项目的经济评价与决策[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2010:123-124.
[31]郝前进,邹晓元.“金砖四国”社会折现率的影响因素分析[J].世界经济研究,2009(10):14-17.
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[33]Evans D.A Social Discount Rate for France[J].Applied Economics Letters,2004,11(13):803-808.
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[37]杨家栋.消费经济学[M].北京:中国商业出版社,2008:180-198.
[38]焦鹏.我国居民时间偏好率的测算[J].商业经济,2008(7):82-83.
[39]Fisher I.The Theory of Interest[M].New York:Macmillan,1930.
[2]Samuelson P A.A Note on Measurement of Utility[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1937,4(2):151-161.
[3]Thaler R.Some Empirical Evidence on Dynamic Inconsistency[J].Economics Letters,1981,8(3):201-207.
[4]Prelec D.Decreasing Impatience:Definition and Consequences[R].Harvard Business School Working Paper 90-015,1989.
[5]Strotz R H.Myopia and Inconsistency in Dynamic Utility Maximization[J].Review of Economic Studies,1956,23(3):165-180.
[6]Ainslie G.Specious Reward:A Behavioral Theory of Impulsiveness and Impulse Control[J].Psychological Bulletin,1975,82(4):463-496.
[7]Mazur J E.Tests of an Equivalence Rule for Fixed and Variable Reinforcer Delays[J].Journal of Experimental Psychology:Animal Behavior Processes,1984,10(4):426-436.
[8]Laibson D.Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1997,112(2):443-478.
[9]Kamihigashi T.Externality and Nonlinear Discounting:Inderterminacy[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics&Control,2002,26(1):141-169.
[10]Uzawa H.Time Preference,the Consumption Function,and Optimum Asset Holdings[M]//Wolfe J N.Value,Capital and Growth:Paper in Honor of Sir John Hicks.Edinburgh UK:Edinburgh University Press,1968:485-504.
[11]Gootzeit M,Schneider J,Smith W.Marshallian Recursive Preferences and Growth[J].Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization,2002,49(3):381-404.
[12]Gong L,Zou H.Growth and Endogenous Cycles in the Ramsey Model with Becker-Mulligan's Time Preference[R].Mimeo,2000.
[13]Becker G S,Mulligan C B.The Endogenous Determination of Time Preference[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1997,112(3):729-758.
[14]汪海洲,杜思杨,曾先峰.基于SRTP方法对中国社会折现率的估算[J].统计与决策,2013(21):18-21.
[15]Ramsey F P.A Mathematical Theory of Saving[J].The Economic Journal,1928,38(152):543-559.
[16]谭运嘉,李大伟,王芬.中国分区域社会折现率的理论、方法基础与测算[J].工业技术经济,2009,28(5):66-69.
[17]刘昌义,何为.不确定条件下的贴现理论与递减贴现率[J].经济学家,2015(3):65-73.
[18]Mishan E J.Criteria for Public Investment:Some Simplifying Suggestions[J].Journal of Political Economy,1967,75(2):139-146.
[19]Baumol W J.On the Social Rate of Discount[J].American Economic Review,1968,58(4):788-802.
[20]Diamond P A,Mirrlees J A.Optimal Taxation and Public Production I:Production Efficiency[J].American Economic Review,1971,61(1):8-27.
[21]Diamond P A,Mirrlees J A.Optimal Taxation and Public Production II:Tax Rules[J].American Economic Review,1971,61(3):261-278.
[22]Moore M A,Boardman A E,Vining A R,et al.“Just Give me a Number!”Practical Values for the Social Discount Rate[J].Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,2004,23(4):789-812.
[23]宋文飞,李国平,杨永莲.基于社会折现率视角的消费与投资利率变动分析[J].北京理工大学学报,2017,19(4):57-66.
[24]Arrow K J,Cline W R,Maler K,et al.Intertemporal Equity,Discounting,and Economic Efficiency[M]//Bruce J P,Lee H,Haites E F.Climate Change 1995-Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change:Contribution of Working GroupⅢto the Second Assessment Report of IPCC.Cambridge UK:Cambridge University Press,1996:125-144.
[25]Harberger A C.Project Evaluation:Collected Papers[M].Chicago:The University of Chicago Press,1972.
[26]Burgess D F.Complementarity and the Discount Rate for Public Investment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1988,103(3):527-541.
[27]李航.公共项目投资中资金贴现率的选择[J].财贸研究,2002(3):107-110.
[28]Sáez C A,Requena J C.Reconciling Sustainabilty and Discounting in Cost-Benefit Analysis:A Methodological Proposal[J].Ecological Economics,2007,60(4):712-725.
[29]周立,葛耀君.全寿命经济分析中折现率的确定[J].上海公路,2007(2):51-54.
[30]邵颖红,黄渝祥.公共项目的经济评价与决策[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2010:123-124.
[31]郝前进,邹晓元.“金砖四国”社会折现率的影响因素分析[J].世界经济研究,2009(10):14-17.
[32]Evans D,Sezer H.A Time Preference Measure of the Social Discount Rate for the UK[J].Applied Economics,2002,34(15):1925-1934.
[33]Evans D.A Social Discount Rate for France[J].Applied Economics Letters,2004,11(13):803-808.
[34]Frisch R.A Complete Scheme for Computing All Direct and Cross Demand Elasticities in a Model with Many Sectors[J].Econometrica,1959,27(2):177-196.
[35]Lluch C.The Extended Linear Expenditure System[J].European Economic Review,1973,4(1):21-32.
[36]Stone R.Linear Expenditure System and Demand Analysis:An Application to the Pattern of British Demand[J].The Economic Journal,1954,64(255):511-527.
[37]杨家栋.消费经济学[M].北京:中国商业出版社,2008:180-198.
[38]焦鹏.我国居民时间偏好率的测算[J].商业经济,2008(7):82-83.
[39]Fisher I.The Theory of Interest[M].New York:Macmillan,1930.