碳排放权交易政策的有效性及作用机制研究——基于建设用地碳排放强度省际差异视角
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摘要
碳排放权交易政策是当前我国实现低碳经济转型的重要举措。以中国30个省级单位2007～2016年的面板数据为研究对象,从建设用地碳排放强度省际差异视角出发,运用双重差分法探究碳排放权交易政策有效性,并对该政策的作用机制进行分析。结果表明:(1)试点区与非试点区建设用地碳排放强度均值有相同的变化趋势,但试点区的碳排放强度值总体呈下降趋势,非试点区则略有上升,说明碳排放权交易政策的实施效果优于强制性减排政策;(2)双重差分法结果证实在控制其他变量的情况下,碳排放权交易政策显著降低了建设用地碳排放强度,且地均GDP、能源强度和工业结构等控制变量对建设用地碳排放强度有显著的促进作用;(3)进一步对碳排放权交易政策的作用机制检验发现,碳排放权交易政策通过对能源强度的相对下降,最终起到抑制建设用地碳排放强度的作用。
The carbon emission right trading policy is an important measure for achieving the transformation of the low-carbon economy in China. This paper takes panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2016 as research object. The difference-in-differences model is applied to explore the effectiveness of the carbon emission right trading policy, and the mechanism of the policy is analyzed from the perspective of inter-provincial differences in the construction land carbon emission intensity. The study shows that:(1) The average value of construction land carbon emission intensity in the pilot area and the non-pilot area has same variation trend during the study period, with the carbon emission intensity value of pilot area a general decline and the non-pilot area a slight rise, which shows that the effect of implementing the carbon emission trading policy is more effective than that of mandatory emission reduction policy.(2) The results of the difference-in-differences model confirm that carbon emission trading right policy significantly reduced the construction land carbon emission intensity under the circumstances of controlling other variables. Moreover, the control variables such as the average land GDP, energy intensity, and industrial structure have significant effects on the construction land carbon emission intensity.(3) Through further investigation of the mechanism of carbon emissions trading policy, we found that the carbon emission right trading policy will ultimately serve to curb construction land carbon emission intensity with a relative decline of energy intensity.
The carbon emission right trading policy is an important measure for achieving the transformation of the low-carbon economy in China. This paper takes panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2016 as research object. The difference-in-differences model is applied to explore the effectiveness of the carbon emission right trading policy, and the mechanism of the policy is analyzed from the perspective of inter-provincial differences in the construction land carbon emission intensity. The study shows that:(1) The average value of construction land carbon emission intensity in the pilot area and the non-pilot area has same variation trend during the study period, with the carbon emission intensity value of pilot area a general decline and the non-pilot area a slight rise, which shows that the effect of implementing the carbon emission trading policy is more effective than that of mandatory emission reduction policy.(2) The results of the difference-in-differences model confirm that carbon emission trading right policy significantly reduced the construction land carbon emission intensity under the circumstances of controlling other variables. Moreover, the control variables such as the average land GDP, energy intensity, and industrial structure have significant effects on the construction land carbon emission intensity.(3) Through further investigation of the mechanism of carbon emissions trading policy, we found that the carbon emission right trading policy will ultimately serve to curb construction land carbon emission intensity with a relative decline of energy intensity.
引文
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[2] 崔连标,范英,朱磊,等.碳排放交易对实现我国“十二五”减排目标的成本节约效应研究[J].中国管理科学,2013,21(1):37-46.CUI L B,FAN Y,ZHU L,et al.The cost saving effect of carbon markets in China for achieving the reduction targets in the “12th five-year plan”[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2013,21(1):37-46.
[3] 黄鲁霞,韩骥,袁坤,等.中国建设用地碳排放强度及其区域差异分析[J].环境科学与技术,2016,39(8):185-192.HUANG L X,HAN J,YUAN K,et al.Analysis of the built-up area’s carbon emission intensity and its regional disparity in China[J].Environmental Science & Technology,2016,39(8):185-192.
[4] 谢凯,南灵.基于STIRPAT模型的陕西省建设用地对能源消费碳排放的影响[J].湖北农业科学,2016,55(3):599-602,607.XIE K,NAN L.Effects of construction land on carbon emissions from energy consumption in Shaanxi Province based on STIRPAT model[J].Hubei Agricultural Sciences,2016,55(3):599-602,607.
[5] ZHANG W T,HUANG B,LUO D.Effects of land use and transportation on carbon sources and carbon sinks:A case study in Shenzhen,China[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2014,122:175-185.
[6] 毛熙彦,林坚,蒙吉军.中国建设用地增长对碳排放的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(12):34-40.MAO X Y,LIN J,MENG J J.Effects of construction land expansion on carbon dioxide emissions in China[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2011,21(12):34-40.
[7] 张润森,濮励杰,文继群,等.建设用地扩张与碳排放效应的库兹涅茨曲线假说及验证[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(5):723-733.ZHANG R S,PU L J,WEN J Q,et al.Hypothesis and validation on the Kuznets Curve of construction land expansion and carbon emission effect[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(5):723-733.
[8] 袁凯华,梅昀,陈银蓉,等.中国建设用地集约利用与碳排放效率的时空演变与影响机制[J].资源科学,2017,39(10):1882-1895.YUAN K H,MEI Y,CHEN Y R,et al.Temporal and spatial evolution and influencing mechanism of construction land intensive utilization on carbon emissions efficiency in China[J].Resources Science,2017,39(10):1882-1895.
[9] 朱志远,苗建军,崔玮.城市建设用地集约利用的碳排放效率分析[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(3):98-103.ZHU Z Y,MIAO J J,CUI W.Analysis of carbon emission efficiency for urban construction land intensive use[J].Areal Research and Development,2016,35(3):98-103.
[10] 张苗,甘臣林,陈银蓉,等.中国城市建设用地开发强度的碳排放效率分析与低碳优化[J].资源科学,2016,38(2):265-275.ZHANG M,GAN C L,CHEN Y R,et al.Carbon emission efficiency and optimization of low carbon for construction land development intensity in China according to provincial panel data[J].Resources Science,2016,38(2):265-275.
[11] TANG L,WU J,YU L,et al.Carbon emissions trading scheme exploration in China:A multi-agent-based model[J].Energy Policy,2015,81:152-169.
[12] LIAO Z,ZHU X,SHI J.Case study on initial allocation of Shanghai carbon emission trading based on Shapley value[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,103:338-344.
[13] 任松彦,戴瀚程,汪鹏,等.碳交易政策的经济影响:以广东省为例[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(1):61-67.REN S Y,DAI H C,WANG P,et al.Economic impacts of carbon emission trading:Case study on Guangdong province[J].Climate Change Research,2015,11(1):61-67.
[14] CHENG B,DAI H,WANG P,ZHAO D,MASUI T.Impacts of carbon trading scheme on air pollutant emissions in Guangdong Province of China[J].Energy for Sustainable Development,2015,27:174-185.
[15] 杨健儿,郑祥民,周立旻.排污权交易:实现控制SO2污染的有效途径[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(S1):219-222.YANG J E,ZHENG X M,ZHOU L M.Emission trading:efficient way to control the SO2 pollution[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2010,20(S1):219-222.
[16] 张同斌,刘琳.中国碳减排政策效应的模拟分析与对比研究——兼论如何平衡经济增长与碳强度下降的双重目标[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(9):3591-3600.ZHANG T B,LIU L.Simulation analysis and comparative study on the effects of China’s carbon reduction policy:On how to balance the dual goals of economic growth and carbon intensity reduction[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(9):3591-3600.
[17] 张俊荣,王孜丹,汤铃,等.基于系统动力学的京津冀碳排放交易政策影响研究[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(3):1-8.ZHANG J R,WANG Z D,TANG L,et al.The simulation of carbon emission trading system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region:An analysis based on system dynamics[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2016,24(3):1-8.
[18] 范丹,王维国,梁佩凤.中国碳排放交易权机制的政策效果分析——基于双重差分模型的估计[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(6):2383-2392.FAN D,WANG W G,LIANG P F.Analysis of the performance of carbon emissions trading right in China:The evaluation based on the difference-in-difference model[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(6):2383-2392.
[19] 李颖,黄贤金,甄峰.江苏省区域不同土地利用方式的碳排放效应分析[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(S2):102-107.LI Y,HUANG X J,ZHEN F.Effects of land use patterns on carbon emission in Jiangsu Province[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2008,24(S2):102-107.
[20] 孙贤斌.安徽省会经济圈土地利用变化的碳排放效益[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(3):394-401.SUN X B.Effects of carbon emission by land use patterns in Hefei’s Economic Circle of Anhui Province[J].Journal of Natural Resources ,2012,27(3):394-401.
[21] 游和远,吴次芳.土地利用的碳排放效率及其低碳优化——基于能源消耗的视角[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(11):1875-1886.YOU H Y,WU C F.Carbon emission efficiency and low carbon optimization of land use:Based on the perspective of energy consumption[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(11):1875-1886.
[22] EHRLICH P R,HOLDREN J P.Impact of population growth[J].Science,1971,171(3977):1212-1217.
[23] KAYA YOICHI.Impact of carbon dioxide emission on GNP growth:Interpretation of proposed scenarios[R].Paris:Presentation to the Energy and Industry Subgroup,Response Strategies Working Group,IPCC,1989.
[24] 宋旭,赵志博,潘凤云.排污权的设定对环境技术进步的影响[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(10):1668-1676.SONG X,ZHAO Z B,PAN F Y.Can the generation of emission permits lead to environmental technology progress?[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2017,26(10):1668-1676.
[25] 张华,王玲,魏晓平.能源的“波特假说”效应存在吗?[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(11):33-41.ZHANG H,WANG L,WEI X P.Is there really a“Porter Hypothesis”effect of energy?[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2014,24(11):33-41.
[26] 沈能,刘凤朝.高强度的环境规制真能促进技术创新吗?——基于“波特假说”的再检验[J].中国软科学,2012(4):49-59.SHEN N,LIU F C.Can intensive environmental regulation promote technological innovation?:Porter Hypothesis Reexamined[J].China Soft Science,2012(4):49-59.
[27] 肖建华,陈楠.基于双重差分法的“省直管县”政策的效应分析——以江西省为例[J].财经理论与实践,2017,38(3):97-103.XIAO J H,CHEN N.The effects evaluation of county directly administrated by province based on DID method:A case study of Jiangxi province[J].The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics,2017,38(3):97-103.
[28] 刘瑞明,赵仁杰.国家高新区推动了地区经济发展吗?——基于双重差分方法的验证[J].管理世界,2015(8):30-38.LIU R M,ZHAO R J.Does the National High-tech Zone promote regional economic development?:Verification based on the double difference method[J].Management World,2015(8):30-38.
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