基于AHP可变模糊集理论的溃坝环境影响评价
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摘要
水库溃坝的风险不仅取决于大坝自身风险概率,也取决于溃坝导致的后果。我国大坝数量众多,病险大坝所占比重大,一旦溃坝将给下游带来灾难性后果。溃坝后果研究主要包括生命损失、经济损失、社会影响和环境影响4个方面,相比下来,目前国内外对于溃坝环境影响方面的研究稍显不足。针对溃坝环境影响研究内容的复杂性和不确定性,以前人研究为基础,综合考量河道形态、生物多样性等影响因素,采用可变模糊集理论,构建溃坝环境影响评价指标体系和评价等级标准。结合层次分析法(AHP)确定指标权重,建立了溃坝环境影响评价的可变模糊集评价模型,并以沙河集水库大坝作为工程实例进行验证。结果表明:采用可变模糊集评价模型的评价结果准确合理,具有较好的实用性,为溃坝环境影响评价提供了一种新方法。
The risk of dam failure not only depends on the risk probability of the dam itself,but also on the consequences. There are a large number of dams in China and the proportion of dangerous dams is huge. Once the dam breaks down,it will have disastrous consequences for the downstream. The study of dam breach consequences mainly includes four aspects: health effect,property loss,social impact and environmental impact,in comparison,the domestic and international research on the dam-breaking environmental impacts are slightly insufficient up to now. In view of the complexity and ambiguity of the research content on the dam-breaking environmental impact,based on previous studies,comprehensive considerations were made on the factors such as river morphology and biodiversity,using a variable fuzzy set theory to construct a dam breach environmental impact assessment index system and evaluation grade standard. The index weights were determined in combination with the analytic hierarchy process( AHP) to establish a variable fuzzy set evaluation model for dam breach environmental impact assessment,and the Shaheji Reservoir Dam was used as an engineering example to verify. The results show that the evaluation result of the variable fuzzy set evaluation model is accurate and reasonable,and it has good practicability. It provides a new scientific method for dam breach environmental impact assessment.
The risk of dam failure not only depends on the risk probability of the dam itself,but also on the consequences. There are a large number of dams in China and the proportion of dangerous dams is huge. Once the dam breaks down,it will have disastrous consequences for the downstream. The study of dam breach consequences mainly includes four aspects: health effect,property loss,social impact and environmental impact,in comparison,the domestic and international research on the dam-breaking environmental impacts are slightly insufficient up to now. In view of the complexity and ambiguity of the research content on the dam-breaking environmental impact,based on previous studies,comprehensive considerations were made on the factors such as river morphology and biodiversity,using a variable fuzzy set theory to construct a dam breach environmental impact assessment index system and evaluation grade standard. The index weights were determined in combination with the analytic hierarchy process( AHP) to establish a variable fuzzy set evaluation model for dam breach environmental impact assessment,and the Shaheji Reservoir Dam was used as an engineering example to verify. The results show that the evaluation result of the variable fuzzy set evaluation model is accurate and reasonable,and it has good practicability. It provides a new scientific method for dam breach environmental impact assessment.
引文
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[21]陈守煜.可变模糊集理论与模型及其应用[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,2009,1-36.CHEN Shouyu. Variable Fuzzy Set Theory and Model and its Application[M]. Dalian:Dalian University of Technology Press,2009,1-36.(in Chinese)
[22]王亚平,岳强,任晨曦,等.基于可变模糊集理论的平原水库健康评价及实例研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(12):87-94.WANG Yaping,YUE Qiang,REN Chenxi,et,al. Assessing the health of plain reservoirs using variable fuzzy system:theory and case study[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2017,36(12):87-94.(in Chinese)
[23]李鹏.基于可变模糊集理论的既有房屋安全评价研究[D].西安:西安建筑科技大学,2016.LI Peng. Research on the Safety Evaluation of Existing Building Based on Variable Fuzzy Sets Theory[D]. Xi’an:Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,2016.(in Chinese)
[24]周绍文.基于可变模糊集理论的公路隧道衬砌结构健康状况评价方法[D].西安:长安大学,2015.ZHOU Shaowen. Assessment Approach for Healthy Condition of Highway Tunnels Lining Structure Based on Variable Fuzzy Sets Theory[D].Xi’an:Chang’an University,2015.(in Chinese)
[25]许树柏.层次分析法原理[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1988.XU Shubai. The Principle of Analyric Hierarchy Process[M]. Tianjin:Tianjin University Press,1988.(in Chinese)
[26]李文英.层次分析法(AHP法)在工程项目风险管理中的应用[J].北京化工大学学报(社会科学版),2009(1):46-48.LI Wenying. Application of AHP analysis in risk management of engineering projects[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(Social Sciences Edition),2009(1):46-48.(in Chinese)
[2]何晓燕,孙丹丹,黄金池.大坝溃决社会及环境影响评价[J].岩土工程学报,2008(11):1752-1757.HE Xiaoyan,SUN Dandan,HUANG Jinchi. Assessment on social and environmental impacts of dam break[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2008(11):1752-1757.(in Chinese)
[3] Wang X,Zhou Z. Study on Environmental Risk of Dam Failure[C]//International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedical Engineering.IEEE,2010:1-3.
[4]程莉,周晶.基于模糊数学理论的溃坝环境影响分析[J].价值工程,2013,32(15):290-292.CHENG Li,ZHOU Jing. Environmental impact analysis of dam failure based on fuzzy mathematical theory[J]. Value Engineering,2013,32(15):290-292.(in Chinese)
[5] Zhong D,Sun Y,Li M. Dam break threshold value and risk probability assessment for an earth dam[J]. Natural Hazards,2011,59(1):129-147.
[6]张莹.基于能值足迹法的溃坝环境、生态损失评价[D].南京:南京水利科学研究院,2010.ZHANG Ying. Evaluation of Environmental and Ecological Loss of Dam Break Based on Emergy Footprint[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,2010.(in Chinese)
[7]陈守煜,李敏.基于可变模糊集理论的水资源可再生能力评价模型[J].水利学报,2006(4):431-435.CHEN Souyu,LI Min. Assessment model of water resources reproducible ability based on variable fuzzy set theory[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2006(4):431-435.(in Chinese)
[8]魏兆珍,冯平.基于可变模糊集理论的滦河流域降雨径流演变特征分析[J].水利学报,2011,42(9):1051-1057.WEI Zhaozhen,FENG Ping. Analysis of rainfall-runoff evolution characteristics in the Luanhe River basin based on variable fuzzy set theory[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2011,42(9):1051-1057.(in Chinese)
[9]叶菁,侯卫生,邓东成,等.基于可变模糊集的城市地下空间资源三维质量评价[J].资源科学,2016,38(11):2147-2156.YE Jing,HOU Weisheng,DENG Dongcheng,et al. 3D quality assessment for urban underground space resources based on variable fuzzy set[J].Resources Science,2016,38(11):2147-2156.(in Chinese)
[10] Zou Q,Zhou J,Zhou C,et al. Comprehensive flood risk assessment based on set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model and fuzzy AHP[J].Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2013,27(2):525-546.
[11]何福娟,刘永强.基于动态可变模糊综合评判法地下水水质评价[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(6):38-43.HE Fujuan,LIU Yongqiang. Evaluating groundwater quality based on dynamic variable fuzzy comprehensive method[J]. Jourmal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2017,28(6):38-43.(in Chinese)
[12] DZ Seker,S Kabdasli,B Rudvan. Risk assessment of a dam-break using GIS technology[J]. Water Science and Technology,2003,48(10):89.
[13] MK Lindell,CS Prater. Assessing community impacts of natural disasters[J]. Natural Hazards Review,2003,4(4):176-185.
[14]李奇.基于集对分析的大坝风险后果评价模型研究[D].郑州:郑州大学,2017.LI Qi. Dam Risk Consequence Evaluation Model Based on Set Pair Analysis[D]. Zhengzhou:Zhengzhou University,2017.(in Chinese)
[15]中华人民共和国环境保护总局.地表水环境质量标准[S].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2002.Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People’s Republc of China. Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water[S]. Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,2002.(in Chinese)
[16]中华人民共和国环境保护总局.土壤环境质量标准[S].北京:中国标准出版社,1995.Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People’s Republc of China. Environmental Quality Standards for Soils[S]. Beijing:Standard Press of China,1995.(in Chinese)
[17] Zadeh L A. Fuzzy sets[J]. Information and Control,1965,8(3):338-353.
[18]陈守煜.相对隶属函数的系统辩证论哲学基础[J].系统辩证学学报,1996(2):26-29.CHEN Shouyu. Philosophical basis of systemic dialectical theory of relative subordinate function[J]. Chinese Journal of Systems Science,1996(2):26-29.(in Chinese)
[19]陈守煜.可变模糊集理论的哲学基础[J].大连理工大学学报(社会科学版),2005(1):53-57.CHEN Shouyu. Philosophical foundation of variable fuzzy sets theory[J]. Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences),2005(1):53-57.(in Chinese)
[20]陈守煜.系统模糊决策理论与应用[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,1994.CHEN Shouyu. System Fuzzy Decision Theory and its Application[M]. Dalian:Dalian University of Technology Press,1994.(in Chinese)
[21]陈守煜.可变模糊集理论与模型及其应用[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,2009,1-36.CHEN Shouyu. Variable Fuzzy Set Theory and Model and its Application[M]. Dalian:Dalian University of Technology Press,2009,1-36.(in Chinese)
[22]王亚平,岳强,任晨曦,等.基于可变模糊集理论的平原水库健康评价及实例研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(12):87-94.WANG Yaping,YUE Qiang,REN Chenxi,et,al. Assessing the health of plain reservoirs using variable fuzzy system:theory and case study[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2017,36(12):87-94.(in Chinese)
[23]李鹏.基于可变模糊集理论的既有房屋安全评价研究[D].西安:西安建筑科技大学,2016.LI Peng. Research on the Safety Evaluation of Existing Building Based on Variable Fuzzy Sets Theory[D]. Xi’an:Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,2016.(in Chinese)
[24]周绍文.基于可变模糊集理论的公路隧道衬砌结构健康状况评价方法[D].西安:长安大学,2015.ZHOU Shaowen. Assessment Approach for Healthy Condition of Highway Tunnels Lining Structure Based on Variable Fuzzy Sets Theory[D].Xi’an:Chang’an University,2015.(in Chinese)
[25]许树柏.层次分析法原理[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1988.XU Shubai. The Principle of Analyric Hierarchy Process[M]. Tianjin:Tianjin University Press,1988.(in Chinese)
[26]李文英.层次分析法(AHP法)在工程项目风险管理中的应用[J].北京化工大学学报(社会科学版),2009(1):46-48.LI Wenying. Application of AHP analysis in risk management of engineering projects[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(Social Sciences Edition),2009(1):46-48.(in Chinese)