DSSAT模型在黄土丘陵区不同耕作措施中的适用性
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摘要
基于黄土丘陵区2016–2017年两年春小麦(Triticum aestivum)田间试验数据和同期逐日气象数据,在利用GLUE参数估计模块结合"试错法"对模型参数标定基础上,运用均方根误差法对DSSAT模型进行检验,评估DSSAT在该地不同耕作措施中的适用性。结果表明,产量模拟值与实测值误差在8.89%～10.98%,整个土壤剖面各层土壤含水量模拟值与实测值误差在10.39%～14.91%,主要生育期天数的模拟值与实测值的误差<9.09%。表明DSSAT模型可以用来模拟不同耕作措施春小麦产量、生育期天数及土壤水分的动态变化,模型可以用于指导该地区作物生产及耕作措施的优化管理。
Based on test data from a spring wheat field and daily meteorological data for 2016 to 2017 from the Loess hilly region, model parameters were calibrated using the glue parameter estimation module and the "trial and error method," and the root mean square error method was used to test the DSSAT model to evaluate its adaptation under different farming practices. The results showed that the error between the estimated yield simulation and measured yield was in the range of 8.89%～10.98%, and the error for soil moisture content in each layer of the soil profile was 10.39%～14.91%. The error between the simulated and measured values for the main growth period in days was less than 9.09%. Therefore, the DSSAT model may be used to simulate crop yield, growth period in days, and soil water dynamics under different tillage practices,and the model could be used to guide crop production and optimal management of tillage measures in this area.
Based on test data from a spring wheat field and daily meteorological data for 2016 to 2017 from the Loess hilly region, model parameters were calibrated using the glue parameter estimation module and the "trial and error method," and the root mean square error method was used to test the DSSAT model to evaluate its adaptation under different farming practices. The results showed that the error between the estimated yield simulation and measured yield was in the range of 8.89%～10.98%, and the error for soil moisture content in each layer of the soil profile was 10.39%～14.91%. The error between the simulated and measured values for the main growth period in days was less than 9.09%. Therefore, the DSSAT model may be used to simulate crop yield, growth period in days, and soil water dynamics under different tillage practices,and the model could be used to guide crop production and optimal management of tillage measures in this area.
引文
[1]魏欢欢,王仕稳,杨文稼,孙海妮,殷俐娜,邓西平.免耕及深松耕对黄土高原地区春玉米和冬小麦产量及水分利用效率影响的整合分析.中国农业科学,2017,50(3):461-477.WEI H H,WANG S Y,YANG W J,SUN H N,YIN L N,DENG X P.Meta analysis on impact of no-tillage and subsoiling tillage on springmaize and winter wheat yield and water use efficiency on the Loess Plateau.Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2017,50(3):461-477.
[2]查燕,武雪萍,张会民,蔡典雄,朱平,高洪军.长期有机无机配施黑土土壤有机碳对农田基础地力提升的影响.中国农业科学,2015,48(23):4649-4659.ZHA Y,WU X P,ZHANG H M,CAI D X,ZHU P,GAO H J.Effects of long-term organic and inorganic fertilization on enhancing soil organic carbon and basic soil productivity in black soil.Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2015,48(23):4649-4659.
[3]李玥,武凌,高珍妮,牛俊义.基于APSIM的胡麻光合生产与干物质积累模拟模型.草业学报,2018,27(3):57-66.LI Y,WU L,GAO Z N,NIU J Y.Determination of the effect of precipitation distribution on yield of wheat and pea in dryland using APSIM.Acta Prataculturae Sinica,2018,27(3):57-66.
[4]赵子龙,李波,丰雪,姚名泽,解影,邢经伟,李长信.温室环境不同灌水水平条件下DSSAT-CROPGRO-Tomato模型的调参与验证.应用生态学报,2018,29(6):2017-2027.ZHAO Z L,LI B,FENG X,YAO M Z,XIE Y,XING J W,LI C X.Parameter estimation and verification of DSSAT-CROPGRO-Tomato model under different irrigation levels in greenhouse.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2018,29(6):2017-2027.
[5]陶生才,潘婕,刘珂.DSSAT模型在中国农业与气候变化领域应用进展.中国农学通报,2015,31(9):200-206.TAO S C,PAN J,LIU K.The Application progress of DSSAT in the field of agriculture and climate change in China.Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(9):200-206.
[6]张延,任小川,赵英,曹寒,冯浩.未来气候变化对关中地区冬小麦耗水和产量的影响模拟.干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(1):220-228.ZHANG Y,REN X C,ZHAO Y,CAO H,FENG H.Impact and simulation of climate change on water consumption and yield of winter-wheat in Guanzhong region.Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2016,34(1):220-228.
[7]徐娜,党廷辉.基于DSSAT模型的冬小麦氮肥效应预测:以黄土高原沟壑区渭北旱塬为例.灌溉排水学报.2017,36(2):147-154.XU N,DANG Y H.Investigation of nitrogen fertilizer effects on winter wheat production based on the DSSAT model:A case study at the Weibei dryland on the Loess Plateau.Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2017,36(2):147-154.
[8]张宝林,江世高,张春萍,李旭东,特木其勒图,庄光辉,赵建,牛得草.贺兰山西坡草地土壤碳特征及潜在退化损失分析.草业科学,2017,34(11):2200-2210.ZHANG B L,JIANG S G,ZHANG C P,LI X D,Temuqiletu,ZHUANG G H,ZHAO J,NIU D C.Distribution of soil carbon and its losing risk with potential degradation on the grasslands along western slope of Helan mountain.China.Pratacultural Science,2017,34(11):2200-2210.
[9]李振海.基于遥感数据和气象预报数据的DSSAT模型冬小麦产量和品质预报.杭州:浙江大学博士学位论文,2016.LI Z H.Predicting winter wheat yield and quality by integrating of remote-sensing data and the weather forecast data into the DSSAT model.PhD Thesis.Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2016.
[10]ZHA Y,WU X P,HE X H,ZHANG H M,GONG F F,CAI D X,ZHU P,GAO H J.Basic soil productivity of spring maize in black soil under long-term fertilization based on DSSAT model.Journal of Integrative Agriculture,2014,13(3):577-587.
[11]李国强,陈丹丹,张建涛,冯晓,任德超,郑国清.基于DSSAT模型的河南省小麦生产潜力定量模拟与分析.麦类作物学报,2016,36(4):507-515.LI G Q,CHEN D D,ZHANG J T,FENG X,REN D C,ZHENG G Q.Quantitative simulation and snalysis of winter wheat production potential in Henan province.Journal of Triticeae Crops,2016,36(4):507-515.
[12]CRAIG F D,GERRIT H.Optimizing parameters of CSM-CERES-Maize model to improve simulation performance of maize growth and nitrogen uptake in Northeast China.Journal of Integrative Agriculture,2012,11(11):1898-1913.
[13]姚宁,周元刚,宋利兵,刘健,李毅,吴淑芳,冯浩,何建强.不同水分胁迫条件下DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型的调参与验证.农业工程学报,2015,31:138-150.YAO N,ZHOU Y G,SONG L B,LIU J,LI Y,WU S F,FENG H,HE J Q.Parameter estimation and verification of DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model for simulation of growth and development of winter wheat under water stresses at different growth stages.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31:138-150.
[14]曹秀霞,安开忠,蔡伟,苏荣瑞,姚凤梅.CERES-Rice模型在江汉平原的验证与适应性评价.中国农业气象,2013,34(4):447-454.CAO X X,AN K Z,CAI W,SU R R,YAO F M.Validation and adaptability evaluation of CERES-Rice model in the Jianghan plain.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(4):447-454.
[15]HU Y N,LIU Y J,TANG H J,XU Y L,PAN J.Contribution of drought to potential crop yield reduction in a wheat-maize rotation region in the north China plain.Journal of Integrative Agriculture,2014,13(7):1509-1519.
[16]杨晓慧,黄修桥,王景雷,段福义,孙秀路.基于DSSAT模拟的不同水分利用效率指标区域评价差异研究.节水灌溉,2016(12):8-14.YANG X H,HUANG X Q,WANG J L,DUAN F Y,SUN X L.Evaluation index comparison of different irrigation water use efficiency based on DSSAT simulation.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016(12):8-14.
[17]LIU H L,LIU H B,LEI Q L,ZHAI L M,WANG H Y,ZHANG J Z,ZHU Y P,LIU S P,LI S J,ZHANG J S,LIU X X.Using the DSSAT model to simulate wheat yield and soil organic carbon under a wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain.Journal of Integrative Agriculture,2017,16(10):2300-2307.
[18]王学春,李军,郝明德.基于EPIC模型的黄土高原旱地草粮轮作田土壤湿度模拟.草业科学,2010,27(12):11-20.WANG X C,LI J,HAO M D.Soil moisture simulation of cereal-alfalfa rotation system in the arid-land Loess Plateau based on EPIC model.Pratacultural Science,2010,27(12):11-20.
[19]刘文茹,陈国庆,刘恩科,居辉,刘勤.基于DSSAT模型的长江中下游冬小麦潜在产量的模拟研究.生态学报,2018(9):1-10.LIU W R,CHEN G Q,LIU E K,JU H,LIU Q.The variations in winter wheat potential yields in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze river under the RCP Scenarios.Journal of Ecology,2018(9):1-10.
[20]HU Y N,LIU Y J.Planting distribution of spring maize and its productivity under RCP4.5 scenario in Northeast China in2011-2050.Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2013,46(15):3105-3114.
[21]邹龙,冯浩.DSSAT-CERES模型在黄土高原丘陵沟壑地区春玉米生产中的适用性评价.植物营养与肥料学报,2014,20(6):1413-1420.ZOU L,FENG H.Applicability evaluation of DSSAT-CERES model on production of spring maize in hill and gully area of the Loess Plateau.Journal of Plant Nutrition and Fertilizer,2014,20(6):1413-1420.
[22]STOCKER T F,QIN D,PLATTNER G K,TIGNOR M,ALLEN S K,BOSCHUNG J,NAUELS A,XIA Y,BEX V,MIDGLEY PM.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis.Cambridge,UK,New YorK,USA:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[23]徐建文,居辉,梅旭荣,刘勤,杨建莹.近30年黄淮海平原干旱对冬小麦产量的潜在影响模拟.农业工程学报,2015,31(6):150-158.XU J W,JU H,MEI X R,LIU Q,YANG J Y.Simulation on potential effects of drought on winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1981 to 2010..Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(6):150-158.
[24]宋明丹,冯浩,李正鹏,高建恩.基于Morris和EFAST的CERES-Wheat模型敏感性分析.农业机械学报,2014,45(10):124-131.SONG M D,FENG H,LI Z P,GAO J E.Global sensitivity analyses of DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model using morris and EFASTmethods.Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2014,45(10):124-131.
[2]查燕,武雪萍,张会民,蔡典雄,朱平,高洪军.长期有机无机配施黑土土壤有机碳对农田基础地力提升的影响.中国农业科学,2015,48(23):4649-4659.ZHA Y,WU X P,ZHANG H M,CAI D X,ZHU P,GAO H J.Effects of long-term organic and inorganic fertilization on enhancing soil organic carbon and basic soil productivity in black soil.Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2015,48(23):4649-4659.
[3]李玥,武凌,高珍妮,牛俊义.基于APSIM的胡麻光合生产与干物质积累模拟模型.草业学报,2018,27(3):57-66.LI Y,WU L,GAO Z N,NIU J Y.Determination of the effect of precipitation distribution on yield of wheat and pea in dryland using APSIM.Acta Prataculturae Sinica,2018,27(3):57-66.
[4]赵子龙,李波,丰雪,姚名泽,解影,邢经伟,李长信.温室环境不同灌水水平条件下DSSAT-CROPGRO-Tomato模型的调参与验证.应用生态学报,2018,29(6):2017-2027.ZHAO Z L,LI B,FENG X,YAO M Z,XIE Y,XING J W,LI C X.Parameter estimation and verification of DSSAT-CROPGRO-Tomato model under different irrigation levels in greenhouse.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2018,29(6):2017-2027.
[5]陶生才,潘婕,刘珂.DSSAT模型在中国农业与气候变化领域应用进展.中国农学通报,2015,31(9):200-206.TAO S C,PAN J,LIU K.The Application progress of DSSAT in the field of agriculture and climate change in China.Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(9):200-206.
[6]张延,任小川,赵英,曹寒,冯浩.未来气候变化对关中地区冬小麦耗水和产量的影响模拟.干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(1):220-228.ZHANG Y,REN X C,ZHAO Y,CAO H,FENG H.Impact and simulation of climate change on water consumption and yield of winter-wheat in Guanzhong region.Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2016,34(1):220-228.
[7]徐娜,党廷辉.基于DSSAT模型的冬小麦氮肥效应预测:以黄土高原沟壑区渭北旱塬为例.灌溉排水学报.2017,36(2):147-154.XU N,DANG Y H.Investigation of nitrogen fertilizer effects on winter wheat production based on the DSSAT model:A case study at the Weibei dryland on the Loess Plateau.Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2017,36(2):147-154.
[8]张宝林,江世高,张春萍,李旭东,特木其勒图,庄光辉,赵建,牛得草.贺兰山西坡草地土壤碳特征及潜在退化损失分析.草业科学,2017,34(11):2200-2210.ZHANG B L,JIANG S G,ZHANG C P,LI X D,Temuqiletu,ZHUANG G H,ZHAO J,NIU D C.Distribution of soil carbon and its losing risk with potential degradation on the grasslands along western slope of Helan mountain.China.Pratacultural Science,2017,34(11):2200-2210.
[9]李振海.基于遥感数据和气象预报数据的DSSAT模型冬小麦产量和品质预报.杭州:浙江大学博士学位论文,2016.LI Z H.Predicting winter wheat yield and quality by integrating of remote-sensing data and the weather forecast data into the DSSAT model.PhD Thesis.Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2016.
[10]ZHA Y,WU X P,HE X H,ZHANG H M,GONG F F,CAI D X,ZHU P,GAO H J.Basic soil productivity of spring maize in black soil under long-term fertilization based on DSSAT model.Journal of Integrative Agriculture,2014,13(3):577-587.
[11]李国强,陈丹丹,张建涛,冯晓,任德超,郑国清.基于DSSAT模型的河南省小麦生产潜力定量模拟与分析.麦类作物学报,2016,36(4):507-515.LI G Q,CHEN D D,ZHANG J T,FENG X,REN D C,ZHENG G Q.Quantitative simulation and snalysis of winter wheat production potential in Henan province.Journal of Triticeae Crops,2016,36(4):507-515.
[12]CRAIG F D,GERRIT H.Optimizing parameters of CSM-CERES-Maize model to improve simulation performance of maize growth and nitrogen uptake in Northeast China.Journal of Integrative Agriculture,2012,11(11):1898-1913.
[13]姚宁,周元刚,宋利兵,刘健,李毅,吴淑芳,冯浩,何建强.不同水分胁迫条件下DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型的调参与验证.农业工程学报,2015,31:138-150.YAO N,ZHOU Y G,SONG L B,LIU J,LI Y,WU S F,FENG H,HE J Q.Parameter estimation and verification of DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model for simulation of growth and development of winter wheat under water stresses at different growth stages.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31:138-150.
[14]曹秀霞,安开忠,蔡伟,苏荣瑞,姚凤梅.CERES-Rice模型在江汉平原的验证与适应性评价.中国农业气象,2013,34(4):447-454.CAO X X,AN K Z,CAI W,SU R R,YAO F M.Validation and adaptability evaluation of CERES-Rice model in the Jianghan plain.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(4):447-454.
[15]HU Y N,LIU Y J,TANG H J,XU Y L,PAN J.Contribution of drought to potential crop yield reduction in a wheat-maize rotation region in the north China plain.Journal of Integrative Agriculture,2014,13(7):1509-1519.
[16]杨晓慧,黄修桥,王景雷,段福义,孙秀路.基于DSSAT模拟的不同水分利用效率指标区域评价差异研究.节水灌溉,2016(12):8-14.YANG X H,HUANG X Q,WANG J L,DUAN F Y,SUN X L.Evaluation index comparison of different irrigation water use efficiency based on DSSAT simulation.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016(12):8-14.
[17]LIU H L,LIU H B,LEI Q L,ZHAI L M,WANG H Y,ZHANG J Z,ZHU Y P,LIU S P,LI S J,ZHANG J S,LIU X X.Using the DSSAT model to simulate wheat yield and soil organic carbon under a wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain.Journal of Integrative Agriculture,2017,16(10):2300-2307.
[18]王学春,李军,郝明德.基于EPIC模型的黄土高原旱地草粮轮作田土壤湿度模拟.草业科学,2010,27(12):11-20.WANG X C,LI J,HAO M D.Soil moisture simulation of cereal-alfalfa rotation system in the arid-land Loess Plateau based on EPIC model.Pratacultural Science,2010,27(12):11-20.
[19]刘文茹,陈国庆,刘恩科,居辉,刘勤.基于DSSAT模型的长江中下游冬小麦潜在产量的模拟研究.生态学报,2018(9):1-10.LIU W R,CHEN G Q,LIU E K,JU H,LIU Q.The variations in winter wheat potential yields in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze river under the RCP Scenarios.Journal of Ecology,2018(9):1-10.
[20]HU Y N,LIU Y J.Planting distribution of spring maize and its productivity under RCP4.5 scenario in Northeast China in2011-2050.Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2013,46(15):3105-3114.
[21]邹龙,冯浩.DSSAT-CERES模型在黄土高原丘陵沟壑地区春玉米生产中的适用性评价.植物营养与肥料学报,2014,20(6):1413-1420.ZOU L,FENG H.Applicability evaluation of DSSAT-CERES model on production of spring maize in hill and gully area of the Loess Plateau.Journal of Plant Nutrition and Fertilizer,2014,20(6):1413-1420.
[22]STOCKER T F,QIN D,PLATTNER G K,TIGNOR M,ALLEN S K,BOSCHUNG J,NAUELS A,XIA Y,BEX V,MIDGLEY PM.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis.Cambridge,UK,New YorK,USA:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[23]徐建文,居辉,梅旭荣,刘勤,杨建莹.近30年黄淮海平原干旱对冬小麦产量的潜在影响模拟.农业工程学报,2015,31(6):150-158.XU J W,JU H,MEI X R,LIU Q,YANG J Y.Simulation on potential effects of drought on winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1981 to 2010..Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(6):150-158.
[24]宋明丹,冯浩,李正鹏,高建恩.基于Morris和EFAST的CERES-Wheat模型敏感性分析.农业机械学报,2014,45(10):124-131.SONG M D,FENG H,LI Z P,GAO J E.Global sensitivity analyses of DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model using morris and EFASTmethods.Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2014,45(10):124-131.