中国城镇家庭乘用车物质代谢分析
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摘要
近20年来,中国私人汽车经历了从无到有的阶段,其引起的物质存量的代谢格局无疑具有重要意义。本文采用自下而上的代谢分析方法,对中国1997—2016年城镇家庭乘用车消费的材料存量进行了动态分析,量化了家庭乘用车消费引起的材料代谢结构与格局。研究结果表明:家庭乘用车消费的物质存量快速增加,2016年城镇家庭乘用车消费户均物质存量已达466.62 kg,比1997年的2.29 kg增长了200多倍。乘用车物质代谢仍处于存量净增加阶段,2016年户均输入量是输出量的9倍以上。同时,存量的材料组成也在不断变化,普通钢材和铁的比例分别由1997年的46.72%和11.79%下降到2016年的37.96%和6.80%,逐渐被高强钢和铝金属替代。虽然目前材料输出还是以普通钢铁为主,但是随着存量的逐渐报废,高强钢和铝等材料会成为报废资源的重要组成,其资源的回收管理值得关注。由于汽车报废的滞后性,高强钢和铝材料等资源大量输出不可避免,这为汽车报废拆解行业资源管理和回收提供了新的方向。
In the past 20 years, China's private cars have gone through a rapid growth phase from scratch, and an analysis of the dynamic material stock and flow is undoubtedly of great significance. In this study, the bottom-up metabolic analysis method was used to analyze the material stock and flow of urban household consumption of private cars from 1997 to 2016 and quantify its structure and pattern. The results show that the material stock of household private cars increased rapidly. In 2016, the average urban household private car stock reached 466.62 kg, an increase of 200 times than that of 2.29 kg in 1997. In addition, the private car material flow is in the stage of a net increase in stocks: in 2016, the average household input was more than 9 times the output. At the same time, material composition of the stock is also changing. Ordinary steel and iron ratio decreased from 46.72% and 11.79% in 1997 to 37.96% and 6.80% in 2016, gradually being replaced by high-strength steel and aluminum. Although the output of materials is dominated by ordinary iron and steel, high-strength steel and aluminum will become an important component of scrapped resources. Therefore it is important to pay attention to the recovery and management of the new material component. Considering the lag of automobile scrap, a large number of resources such as high strength steel and aluminum are inevitably exported, which provides a new direction for resource management and recycling in automobile scrap and disassembly industry.
In the past 20 years, China's private cars have gone through a rapid growth phase from scratch, and an analysis of the dynamic material stock and flow is undoubtedly of great significance. In this study, the bottom-up metabolic analysis method was used to analyze the material stock and flow of urban household consumption of private cars from 1997 to 2016 and quantify its structure and pattern. The results show that the material stock of household private cars increased rapidly. In 2016, the average urban household private car stock reached 466.62 kg, an increase of 200 times than that of 2.29 kg in 1997. In addition, the private car material flow is in the stage of a net increase in stocks: in 2016, the average household input was more than 9 times the output. At the same time, material composition of the stock is also changing. Ordinary steel and iron ratio decreased from 46.72% and 11.79% in 1997 to 37.96% and 6.80% in 2016, gradually being replaced by high-strength steel and aluminum. Although the output of materials is dominated by ordinary iron and steel, high-strength steel and aluminum will become an important component of scrapped resources. Therefore it is important to pay attention to the recovery and management of the new material component. Considering the lag of automobile scrap, a large number of resources such as high strength steel and aluminum are inevitably exported, which provides a new direction for resource management and recycling in automobile scrap and disassembly industry.
引文
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[2]Wang T,Mvller D B,Hashimoto S.The ferrous find:Counting iron and steel stocks in China’s economy[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2015,19(5):877-889.
[3]Muller D B.Stock dynamics for forecasting material flows:Case study for housing in the Netherlands[J].Ecological Economics,2006,59(1):142-156.
[4]Hatayama H,Daigo I,Tahara K.Tracking effective measures for closed-loop recycling of automobile steel in China[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2014,87:65-71.
[5]Hatayama H,Daigo I,Matsuno Y,et al.Evolution of aluminum recycling initiated by the introduction of next-generation vehicles and scrap sorting technology[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2012,66:8-14.
[6]楼俞.城市物质代谢分析方法建立与实证研究[D].北京:清华大学,2007.[Lou Y.Material Metabolism for Cities:Methodology and Case Study of Handan City[D].Beijing:Tsinghua University,2007.]
[7]刘晶茹,严丽,丁宁.中国城镇家庭物质流核算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(S1):155-158.[Liu J R,Yan L,Ding N.Material flow accounting of Chinese urban household[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2017,27(S1):155-158.]
[8]严丽,刘晶茹.基于物质流分析的中国城镇家庭代谢核算[J].资源科学,2017,39(9):1682-1690.[Yan L,Liu J R.Chinese urban household metabolism accounting based on material flow analysis[J].Resources Science,2017,39(9):1682-1690.]
[9]国务院.汽车产业发展政策[R].北京:中华人民共和国国务院公报,1994.[The State Council.Development Policies of Automobile Industry[R].Beijing:The Bulletin of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China,1994.]
[10]中央委员会.中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十个五年计划的建议[EB/OL].(2000-10-11)[2018-01-08].http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/64162/71380/71382/71386/4837946.html.[The Central Committee.The Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the Tenth Five Year Plan for the Development of National Economy and Social Development[EB/OL].(2000-10-11)[2018-01-08].http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/64162/71380/71382/71386/4837946.html.]
[11]Davis S C.Transportation Energy Data Book,Edition 35[EB/OL].(2017-01-28)[2018-01-08].https://cta.ornl.gov/data/index.shtml.
[12]Commission E E.Energy,Transport and Environment Indicators[M].Luxembourg:Publications Office of the European Union,2017.
[13]卢伊,陈彬.城市代谢研究评述:内涵与方法[J].生态学报,2015,35(8):2438-2451.[Lu Y,Chen B.A review on urban metabolism:Connotation and methodology[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(8):2438-2451.]
[14]Noorman K J,Biesiot W,Moll H C.Changing lifestyles in transition routes towards sustainable household consumption patterns[J].International Journal of Sustainable Development,1999,2(2):231-244.
[15]L?hteenoja S,Lettenmeier M,Kauppinen T,et al.Natural Resource Consumption Caused by Finnish Households[C].Helsinki:Proceedings of the Nordic Consumer Policy Research Conference,2007.
[16]MüLler E,Hilty L M,Widmer R,et al.Modeling metal stocks and flows:A review of dynamic material flow analysis methods[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2014,48(4):2102-2113.
[17]全国信息与文献标准化技术委员会.汽车产品型号编制规则:GB 9417-89[S].北京:中国标准出版社,1989.[NITS.Rules for the Formulation of Automotive Product Types:GB 9417-89[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,1989.]
[18]全国信息与文献标准化技术委员会.汽车和挂车类型的术语和定义:GB/T 3730.1-2001[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2001.[NITS.Terminology and Definition of Vehicle and Trailer Types:GB/T 3730.1-2001[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2001.]
[19]全国信息与文献标准化技术委员会.机动车辆及挂车分类:GB/T 15089-2001[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2001.[NITS.Classification of Motor Vehicles and Trailers:GB/T 15089-2001[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2001.]
[20]Oguchi M,Kameya T,Yagi S,et al.Product flow analysis of various consumer durables in Japan[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2008,52(3):463-480.
[21]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1998-2017.[National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.China Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,1998-2017.]
[22]全国轿车1997年各月产销量[J].天津汽车,1998,(1):18.[The monthly sales volume of the national car in 1997[J].Tianjin Auto,1998,(1):18.]
[23]吴法成.1997年中国汽车市场回顾和1998年展望[J].汽车与社会,1998,(3):43-45.[Wu F C.A review of China’s auto market in 1997 and its outlook in 1998[J].Auto Society,1998,(3):43-45.]
[24]Oguchi M,Fuse M.Regional and longitudinal estimation of product lifespan distribution:A case study for automobiles and a simplified estimation method[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2015,49(3):1738-1743.
[25]Hao H,Wang H,Ouyang M,et al.Vehicle survival patterns in China[J].Science China Technological Sciences,2011,54(3):625-629.
[26]Dai Q,Kelly J C,Elgowainy A.Life cycle analysis of 1995-2014US light-duty vehicle fleet:The environmental implications of vehicle material composition changes[J].SAE International Journal of Materials and Manufacturing,2017,10(3):378-384.
[27]Hula A,Bunker A,Alson J.Light-Duty Automotive Technology,Carbon Dioxide Emissions,and Fuel Economy Trends:1975Through 2015[R].Washington DC:Trends Report,2015.
[28]徐娜,李笑侠,李润煜.浅谈我国农村二手车市场现状及未来发展趋势[J].企业文化(中旬刊),2016,(2):261.[Xu N,Li X X,Li R Y.The present situation and future development trend of rural second-hand car market in China[J].Culture Corporate,2016,(2):261.]
[29]中国汽车技术研究中心.中国汽车工业年鉴[M].天津:《中国汽车工业年鉴》期刊社,2016.[China Auto Engineering Association.Technical Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle[M].Tianjin:Technical Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy VehiclePeriodical Press,2016.]
[30]Mackenzie D,Zoepf S,Heywood J.Determinants of US passenger car weight[J].International Journal of Vehicle Design,2014,65(1):73-93.