需求不确定下企业生产规模选择及影响因素研究
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摘要
基于企业生产规模的不同情况,讨论了需求不确定下企业生产规模决策问题,构建了企业生产规模决策模型并得出了不同条件下的表达式。分析表明:需求不确定下企业存在生产最优规模,随着成本的增加,企业最优生产规模临界值将增大,利率、市场力量与企业最优生产规模负相关;企业生产规模为Q时,企业最优生产规模与单位时间收益流的波动率和期望增长率正相关,而与单位成本无关;在区间0≤q(t)≤Q,企业最优生产规模与企业单位时间收益流的波动率负相关,随着企业单位时间收益流的期望增长率的增加先降低后增加,且随着企业单位成本C的增加先不变后增加。这为需求不确定下企业生产规模决策提供了一种解释。
Based on the different circumstances of the company's production scale,the issue of the enterprise's production scale decision-making under the uncertainty of the demand was discussed.A decisionmaking model for the production scale of the company was constructed and expressions under different conditions were obtained.The analysis shows that if the demand is uncertain,the company has the optimal production scale.With the increase of the cost,the critical value of the optimal production scale of the company will increase.The interest rate and market force are negatively related to the optimal production scale of the enterprise.When the scale of enterprise production is,the optimal production scale of an enterprise is positively related to the volatility and expected growth rate of the unit-time income stream,while has nothing to do with the unit cost.Within the range,the optimal production scale is negatively related to the volatility of the enterprise's unit time income flow.As the company's unit time revenue flow expects an increase in the growth rate,it first decreases and then increases,and as the company's unit cost(C)increases,it first remains unchanged and then increases.This provides one kind of explanation for the decision-making of enterprises' production scale under the uncertainty of demand.
Based on the different circumstances of the company's production scale,the issue of the enterprise's production scale decision-making under the uncertainty of the demand was discussed.A decisionmaking model for the production scale of the company was constructed and expressions under different conditions were obtained.The analysis shows that if the demand is uncertain,the company has the optimal production scale.With the increase of the cost,the critical value of the optimal production scale of the company will increase.The interest rate and market force are negatively related to the optimal production scale of the enterprise.When the scale of enterprise production is,the optimal production scale of an enterprise is positively related to the volatility and expected growth rate of the unit-time income stream,while has nothing to do with the unit cost.Within the range,the optimal production scale is negatively related to the volatility of the enterprise's unit time income flow.As the company's unit time revenue flow expects an increase in the growth rate,it first decreases and then increases,and as the company's unit cost(C)increases,it first remains unchanged and then increases.This provides one kind of explanation for the decision-making of enterprises' production scale under the uncertainty of demand.
引文
[1]周春生,长青,郭良勤.等待的价值-未来不确定性条件下的建设项目投资决策分析[J].经济研究,2001,(8):79-85.
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[14]阳军,孟卫东,熊维勤.不确定条件下最优投资时机和最优投资规模决策[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(4):752-759.
[15]鲁皓,张宗益.基于实物期权方法的新兴技术项目投资时机和投资规模选择[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(5):1068-1074.
[16]黄生权,李玲芝.新兴技术项目投资时机受限时的投资规模与时机研究[J].财会通讯,2017,(3):104-108.
[17]顾靖,周宗放.基于风险项目价值的风险投资最优中止时机研究[[J].中国管理科学,2009,17(5):120-126.
[18]黄守军,余波,张宗益.基于实物期权的分布式风电站投资策略研究[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(9):97-106.
[19]张新华,叶泽,赖明勇.考虑价格上限的寡头发电投资阈值与容量选择[J].管理科学学报,2012,15(9):1-9.
[20]Watanabe K,Takaysu H,Takaysu M.Random walker in temporally deforming higher-order potential forces observed in a financial crisis[J].Physical Review,2009,80(5):56-110.
[21]Metric A.Venture capital and the finance of innovation[M].NJ:Hoboken,2007.
[2]Bengtsson J.Manufacturing flexibility and real options:A review[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2001,74(1):213-224.
[3]倪得兵,李韬韬,唐小我.需求不确定下生产能力与竞争优势之间的关系[J].中国管理科学,2012,20(6):133-140.
[4]黄学军,吴冲锋.不确定环境下研发投资决策的期权博弈模型[J].中国管理科学,2006,14(5):33-37.
[5]Dangl T.Investment and capacity choice under uncertain demand[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1999,117(3):415-428.
[6]Hagspiel V,Huisman K J M,Kort P M.Volume flexibility and capacity investment under demand uncertainty[J].International Journal of Production Economics.2016,178:95-108.
[7]Boonman H J,Siddiqui A S.Capacity optimization under uncertainty:The impact of operational time lags[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2017,262(2):660-672.
[8]Lavrutich M N.Capacity choice under uncertainty in a duopoly with endogenous exit[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2017,258(3):1033-1053.
[9]林毅夫,蔡颖义,吴庆堂.外包与不确定环境的最优资本投资[J].经济学季刊,2004,4(1):119-138.
[10]Bloom N,Bond S,Reenen J V.Uncertainty and investment dynamics[J].Review of Economic Studies,2007,74(2):391-415.
[11]李应求,刘朝才,彭朝晖.不确定条件下企业的投资规模决策[J].运筹学学报,2008,12(2):121-128.
[12]Dixit A K,Pindyck R S.Investment under uncertainty[M].New Jersey:Princeton University Press,1994.
[13]Bar-llan A,Agnès S,Alessandro Z.Time-to-build and capacity choice[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics&Control,2002,26(1):69-98.
[14]阳军,孟卫东,熊维勤.不确定条件下最优投资时机和最优投资规模决策[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(4):752-759.
[15]鲁皓,张宗益.基于实物期权方法的新兴技术项目投资时机和投资规模选择[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(5):1068-1074.
[16]黄生权,李玲芝.新兴技术项目投资时机受限时的投资规模与时机研究[J].财会通讯,2017,(3):104-108.
[17]顾靖,周宗放.基于风险项目价值的风险投资最优中止时机研究[[J].中国管理科学,2009,17(5):120-126.
[18]黄守军,余波,张宗益.基于实物期权的分布式风电站投资策略研究[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(9):97-106.
[19]张新华,叶泽,赖明勇.考虑价格上限的寡头发电投资阈值与容量选择[J].管理科学学报,2012,15(9):1-9.
[20]Watanabe K,Takaysu H,Takaysu M.Random walker in temporally deforming higher-order potential forces observed in a financial crisis[J].Physical Review,2009,80(5):56-110.
[21]Metric A.Venture capital and the finance of innovation[M].NJ:Hoboken,2007.
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