蓝狐毛皮价格波动特征及影响因素分析
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摘要
狐狸皮是三大主要毛皮之一,其价格波动状态对整个毛皮市场行情具有一定代表性。本文以蓝狐皮为例,选取1995～2015年间的时间序列数据,通过H-P滤波法考察蓝狐皮价格波动特征,并采用向量误差修正模型(VEC)分析供求因素和外部冲击对蓝狐皮价格的影响。研究结果表明:蓝狐皮价格波动频率高、振幅大,其受自身价格波动的影响程度最大,养殖成本、毛皮加工成本、消费者需求能力、国际毛皮市场冲击和替代品价格对蓝狐皮价格波动的影响存在明显滞后期。因此,中国需要以毛皮价格波动规律为基础,在生产上发展规模经营以降低生产成本,在销售上组建拍卖行以优化贸易环境,同时建立专业的行业组织对毛皮产业动态进行引导,综合提高从业人员收入和推进中国毛皮产业健康发展。
Fox fur is one of the three main furs in China,and its price fluctuation is representative of the entire China fur market. Taking blue fox fur as an example,time series data for 1995-2015 were examined in this study. The fluctuations in prices for blue fox fur were investigated by using H-P filter analysis,and the effects of supply and demand factors and external shocks on the price of blue fox fur were analyzed by vector error correction model( VEC). Results showed that prices fluctuated at high frequency and with great amplitude. Factors that might also lead to price fluctuation included costs of breeding and processing,customer demand,shocks from international marketprices,and substitution prices. Price fluctuations lagged behind changes in these factors. Based on our analyses of fur price fluctuation,we offer here advice to improve the income of employees and promote healthy development of the fur industry. Recommendations include developing scale operations to reduce costs of production,establishing auction houses to optimize trading environment in sales,and setting up professional groups to guide the development of the fur industry.
Fox fur is one of the three main furs in China,and its price fluctuation is representative of the entire China fur market. Taking blue fox fur as an example,time series data for 1995-2015 were examined in this study. The fluctuations in prices for blue fox fur were investigated by using H-P filter analysis,and the effects of supply and demand factors and external shocks on the price of blue fox fur were analyzed by vector error correction model( VEC). Results showed that prices fluctuated at high frequency and with great amplitude. Factors that might also lead to price fluctuation included costs of breeding and processing,customer demand,shocks from international marketprices,and substitution prices. Price fluctuations lagged behind changes in these factors. Based on our analyses of fur price fluctuation,we offer here advice to improve the income of employees and promote healthy development of the fur industry. Recommendations include developing scale operations to reduce costs of production,establishing auction houses to optimize trading environment in sales,and setting up professional groups to guide the development of the fur industry.
引文
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[3]中国养殖业可持续发展战略研究项目组.中国养殖业可持续发展研究:特种养殖卷[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2013.
[4]中国畜产品流通协会.是什么在影响着毛皮价格的波动[J].特种经济动植物,2016,19(6):16.
[5]张立垚,周学红,王惠,等.哥本哈根、赫尔辛基部分品种水貂皮十年拍卖数据分析[J].野生动物学报,2017,38(1):110-114.
[6]刘鹏杰,曹慧,陈小珂.数字背后看中国毛皮产业——国内外生毛皮价格分析[J].中国皮革,2014,43(3):51-58.
[7]杨锡涛,张伟,周学红.我国毛皮市场周期、价格分析及预测[J].经济动物学报,2011,15(2):71-76.
[8]孙晨希.当前毛皮动物养殖业投资风险分析[J].特种经济动植物,2013,16(10):2-4.
[9]李光玉,鲍坤,张海华.特种动物及其饲料发展现状[J].饲料工业,2017,38(12):1-4.
[10]甘林针,张立中.中国水貂皮价格波动及影响因素研究[J].湖北农业科学,2018,57(4):126-129.
[11]张旭,施安国,杨福合.毛皮动物产业现状与发展对策[N].中国畜牧兽医报,2016-02-21(007).
[12]姜东晖,崔凯,马泽芳.山东省毛皮动物和兔产业经济运行分析[J].山东农业大学学报:社会科学版,2016,18(4):50-53.
[13]于超,王伟.我国水貂交易市场拍卖交易的可行性分析——以山东省诸城市为例[J].青岛农业大学学报:社会科学版,2016,28(1):49-54.
[14]李永欣.蛇年獭兔皮价格将呈平稳上升态势[J].北方牧业,2013(10):11.
[15]罗冬晖,杨保建,秦开大.关于我国农产品价格波动研究的述评[J].经济问题探索,2015(8):185-190.
[16]李小毅.今年狐狸皮价格何去何从[J].农家科技,2009(10):32.
[17]高铁梅,王金明,陈飞,等.计量经济分析方法与建模:EViews应用及实例[M]. 3版.北京:清华大学出版社,2017.
[18]张立中,陈建成,李强,等.农业经济前沿[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2012.