基于APSIM模型的大气气溶胶直接辐射效应对我国玉米产量的影响评估
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摘要
在大气气溶胶污染日益严重的时代背景下,气溶胶对农作物生长发育的影响越来越不可忽视。本文以全球气溶胶监测网(AErosol RObotic NETwork, AERONET)中具有常年观测数据的我国北京、香河和太湖为研究站点,利用AERONET多年观测资料以及MODIS地表反照率数据,借助6S(Second Simulation of a Satellite SignalintheSolarSpectrum)辐射传输模式,计算出2001—2014年研究站点的气溶胶直接辐射效应,评估了APSIM(Agricultural Production Systems Simulator)作物模型的适用性,运用验证适用的APSIM模型分析了气溶胶直接辐射效应对我国玉米产量的影响。结果表明:1)验证后的APSIM玉米模型在我国北京、香河和太湖玉米产区具有较好的适用性。APSIM模型在模拟玉米的发育期以及产量中的模拟结果较好,其中各站点产量的相对均方根误差(NRMSE)为1.55%～6.24%,一致性指标(D)为0.80～0.99,决定系数(R~2)为0.75～1.00。2)气溶胶使得太阳直接辐射降低;降低的趋势主要受气溶胶的净辐射通量的影响。2001—2014年期间北京、香河和太湖总辐射量分别降低31.95%、14.74%和28.30%。3)气溶胶直接辐射效应造成玉米减产。2001—2014年期间气溶胶直接辐射效应使得北京、香河和太湖玉米产量分别减少28.44%、14.89%和13.43%。总体来说,2001—2014年期间大气气溶胶直接辐射效应使得我国北京、香河和太湖3个高污染区的玉米产量减少13.43%～28.44%。
Owing to the increasingly serious atmospheric aerosol pollution, the impact of aerosols on the growth and development of crops can no longer be ignored. In this paper, the Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu stations in China with perennial observation data in global aerosol monitoring network(AErosol RObotic NETwork, AERONET) were used as the research stations.Based on the AERONET data, MODIS surface albedo data and the 6 S(Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum) radiation transfer model, the effects of aerosol direct radiation at three research stations from 2001 to 2014 were calculated. Then, the applicability of the APSIM(Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) model was evaluated, and the impacts of direct aerosol radiation on maize yield in China were analyzed by using the APSIM model. The results showed that:1) the verified APSIM maize model had good applicability in the maize producing areas of Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu in China. The results of APSIM model were a better simulation of the developmental stages and the yield of maize, in which normalized root mean square error(NRMSE), coincidence indicator(D), and determinate coefficient(R~2) were 1.55%–6.24%,0.80–0.99, and 0.75–1.00, respectively. 2) Aerosols reduced direct solar radiation, and the decreasing trend was mainly affected by the net radiation flux of aerosols. The total solar radiation of Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu stations reduced by 31.95%,14.74% and 28.30%, respectively, from 2001 to 2014. 3) The direct radiation effect of aerosols caused a reduction in maize yield. The maize yields of the Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu stations, caused by the direct radiation effect of aerosols, were reduced by 28.44%, 14.89%, and 13.43%, respectively, from 2001 to 2014. In general, because of the direct radiation effects of atmospheric aerosols, the maize yields from 2001 to 2014 were reduced by 13.43%–28.44% in three highly polluted areas(Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu) in China.
Owing to the increasingly serious atmospheric aerosol pollution, the impact of aerosols on the growth and development of crops can no longer be ignored. In this paper, the Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu stations in China with perennial observation data in global aerosol monitoring network(AErosol RObotic NETwork, AERONET) were used as the research stations.Based on the AERONET data, MODIS surface albedo data and the 6 S(Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum) radiation transfer model, the effects of aerosol direct radiation at three research stations from 2001 to 2014 were calculated. Then, the applicability of the APSIM(Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) model was evaluated, and the impacts of direct aerosol radiation on maize yield in China were analyzed by using the APSIM model. The results showed that:1) the verified APSIM maize model had good applicability in the maize producing areas of Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu in China. The results of APSIM model were a better simulation of the developmental stages and the yield of maize, in which normalized root mean square error(NRMSE), coincidence indicator(D), and determinate coefficient(R~2) were 1.55%–6.24%,0.80–0.99, and 0.75–1.00, respectively. 2) Aerosols reduced direct solar radiation, and the decreasing trend was mainly affected by the net radiation flux of aerosols. The total solar radiation of Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu stations reduced by 31.95%,14.74% and 28.30%, respectively, from 2001 to 2014. 3) The direct radiation effect of aerosols caused a reduction in maize yield. The maize yields of the Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu stations, caused by the direct radiation effect of aerosols, were reduced by 28.44%, 14.89%, and 13.43%, respectively, from 2001 to 2014. In general, because of the direct radiation effects of atmospheric aerosols, the maize yields from 2001 to 2014 were reduced by 13.43%–28.44% in three highly polluted areas(Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu) in China.
引文
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[17]任义方,王春乙,赵艳霞.气溶胶辐射效应对作物及生态系统的影响综述[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(4):533-540REN Y F,WANG C Y,ZHAO Y X.Review on impact of atmospheric aerosol radiation effect on crops and ecological system[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(4):533-540
[18]赵俊芳,李宁,候英雨,等.基于APSIM模型评估北方八省春玉米生产对气候变化的响应[J].中国农业气象,2018,39(2):108-118ZHAO J F,LI N,HOU Y Y,et al.Evaluation of response of spring maize production to climate change in the eight provinces of northern China based on APSIM model[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2018,39(2):108-118
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[20]张建平,赵艳霞,王春乙,等.气候变化情景下东北地区玉米产量变化模拟[J].中国生态农业学报,2008,16(6):1448-1452ZHANG J P,ZHAO Y X,WANG C Y,et al.Simulation of maize production under climate change scenario in Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2008,16(6):1448-1452
[21]GREENWALD R,BERGIN M H,XU J,et al.The influence of aerosols on crop production:A study using the CEREScrop model[J].Agricultural Systems,2006,89(2/3):390-413
[22]GUPTA R,SOMANATHAN E,DEY S.Global warming and local air pollution have reduced wheat yields in India[J].Climatic Change,2017,140(3/4):593-604
[23]赵俊芳,徐慧,孔祥娜,等.基于MODIS和AERONET的气溶胶地表直接辐射效应评价[J].中国农业气象,2018,39(11):693-701ZHAO J F,XU H,KONG X N,et al.Estimating surface direct radiation effect of aerosol based on MODIS and AERONET data[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2018,39(11):693-701
[24]HOLZWORTH D P,HUTH N I,DEVOIL P G,et al.APSIM-Evolution towards a new generation of agricultural systems simulation[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2014,62:327-350
[25]GAYDON D S,BALWINDER-SINGH,WANG E,et al.Evaluation of the APSIM model in cropping systems of Asia[J].Field Crops Research,2017,204:52-75
[26]HOLZWORTH D,HUTH N I,FAINGES J,et al.APSIM next generation:Overcoming challenges in modernising a farming systems model[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2018,103:43-51
[27]赵彦茜,齐永青,朱骥,等.APSIM模型的研究进展及其在中国的应用[J].中国农学通报,2017,33(18):1-6ZHAO Y X,QI Y Q,ZHU J,et al.Research progress of APSIM model and its application in China[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2017,33(18):1-6
[28]MA L,AHUJA L R,SASEENDRAN S A,et al.A protocol for parameterization and calibration of RZWQM2 in field research[M]//AHUJA L R,MA L W.Methods of Introducing System Models into Agricultural Research.Madison,WI:American Society of Agronomy,Crop Science Society of America,Soil Science Society of America,2011:1-64
[29]CHAMEIDES W L,YU H,LIU S C,et al.Case study of the effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze on agriculture:An opportunity to enhance crop yields in China through emission controls?[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,1999,96(24):13626-13633
[30]张志薇,王宏斌,张镭,等.中国地区3个AERONET站点气溶胶直接辐射强迫分析[J].中国科学院大学学报,2014,31(3):297-305ZHANG Z W,WANG H B,ZHANG L,et al.Aerosol direct radiative forcing at three AERONET sites in China[J].Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2014,31(3):297-305
[2]张美根,韩志伟.TRACE-P期间硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵盐气溶胶的模拟研究[J].高原气象,2003,22(1):1-6ZHANG M G,HAN Z W.A numerical study on distribution of sulfate,nitrate and ammonium aerosols over east Asia during the TRACE-P campaign[J].Plateau Meteorology,2003,22(1):1-6
[3]郑辉辉,师华定,陈莉荣,等.典型行业黑碳气溶胶排放对区域气候的影响模拟[J].环境工程技术学报,2017,7(3):255-261ZHENG H H,SHI H D,CHEN L R,et al.Simulation of impact of black carbon aerosol on regional climate change in typical industries[J].Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology,2017,7(3):255-261
[4]李德平,程兴宏,孙治安,等.北京不同区域气溶胶辐射效应[J].应用气象学报,2018,29(5):609-618LI D P,CHENG X H,SUN Z A,et al.Radiative effects of aerosols in different areas of Beijing[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2018,29(5):609-618
[5]IPCC.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis:Contribution of Working GroupⅠto the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013:576-578
[6]XIA X,CHE H,ZHU J,et al.Ground-based remote sensing of aerosol climatology in China:Aerosol optical properties,direct radiative effect and its parameterization[J].Atmospheric Environment,2016,124:243-251
[7]王志立.典型种类气溶胶的辐射强迫及其气候效应的模拟研究[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2011:131-135WANG Z L.Simulation of radiative forcing of typical aerosols and their effects on climate[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,2011:131-135
[8]刘秀位,张小雨,张喜英.大气气溶胶增加对作物的影响研究进展[J].生态学报,2016,36(7):2084-2090LIU X W,ZHANG X Y,ZHANG X Y.A review of the research on crop responses to the increase in aerial aerosol[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(7):2084-2090
[9]BERGIN M H,GREENWALD R,XU J,et al.Influence of aerosol dry deposition on photosynthetically active radiation available to plants:A case study in the Yangtze Delta Region of China[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2001,28(18):3605-3608
[10]CHEN Y P.Ecophysiological responses of winter wheat seedling to aerosol wet deposition of Xi’an area,China[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,2010,22(11):1786-1791
[11]HUANG Y,DICKINSON R E,CHAMEIDES W L.Impact of aerosol indirect effect on surface temperature over East Asia[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2006,103(12):4371-4376
[12]IPCC.Climate Change 2014:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability.Part A:Global and Sectoral Aspects.Contribution of Working GroupⅡto the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2014:491-492
[13]CHARLSON R J,SCHWARTZ S E,HALES J M,et al.Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols[J].Science,1992,255(5043):423-430
[14]BOIYO R,KUMAR K R,ZHAO T L.Statistical intercomparison and validation of multisensory aerosol optical depth retrievals over three AERONET sites in Kenya,East Africa[J].Atmospheric Research,2017,197:277-288
[15]ZHANG T Y,YUE X,LI T,et al.Climate effects of stringent air pollution controls mitigate future maize losses in China[J].Environmental Research Letters,2018,13(12):124011
[16]翟薇.大气气溶胶辐射效应对长江三角洲地区主要作物生产的影响[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2007:1-11ZHAI W.The impacts of radiative effects of atmospheric aerosol on primary crops’growth in the Yangtze Delta region[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,2007:1-11
[17]任义方,王春乙,赵艳霞.气溶胶辐射效应对作物及生态系统的影响综述[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(4):533-540REN Y F,WANG C Y,ZHAO Y X.Review on impact of atmospheric aerosol radiation effect on crops and ecological system[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(4):533-540
[18]赵俊芳,李宁,候英雨,等.基于APSIM模型评估北方八省春玉米生产对气候变化的响应[J].中国农业气象,2018,39(2):108-118ZHAO J F,LI N,HOU Y Y,et al.Evaluation of response of spring maize production to climate change in the eight provinces of northern China based on APSIM model[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2018,39(2):108-118
[19]王力.华北地区气溶胶时空分异特性及对农作物影响的模拟研究[D].重庆:重庆交通大学,2015:1-61WANG L.Atmospheric aerosol spatial-temporal characteristics and its climatic effect on crop in North China[D].Chongqing:Chongqing Jiaotong University,2015:1-61
[20]张建平,赵艳霞,王春乙,等.气候变化情景下东北地区玉米产量变化模拟[J].中国生态农业学报,2008,16(6):1448-1452ZHANG J P,ZHAO Y X,WANG C Y,et al.Simulation of maize production under climate change scenario in Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2008,16(6):1448-1452
[21]GREENWALD R,BERGIN M H,XU J,et al.The influence of aerosols on crop production:A study using the CEREScrop model[J].Agricultural Systems,2006,89(2/3):390-413
[22]GUPTA R,SOMANATHAN E,DEY S.Global warming and local air pollution have reduced wheat yields in India[J].Climatic Change,2017,140(3/4):593-604
[23]赵俊芳,徐慧,孔祥娜,等.基于MODIS和AERONET的气溶胶地表直接辐射效应评价[J].中国农业气象,2018,39(11):693-701ZHAO J F,XU H,KONG X N,et al.Estimating surface direct radiation effect of aerosol based on MODIS and AERONET data[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2018,39(11):693-701
[24]HOLZWORTH D P,HUTH N I,DEVOIL P G,et al.APSIM-Evolution towards a new generation of agricultural systems simulation[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2014,62:327-350
[25]GAYDON D S,BALWINDER-SINGH,WANG E,et al.Evaluation of the APSIM model in cropping systems of Asia[J].Field Crops Research,2017,204:52-75
[26]HOLZWORTH D,HUTH N I,FAINGES J,et al.APSIM next generation:Overcoming challenges in modernising a farming systems model[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2018,103:43-51
[27]赵彦茜,齐永青,朱骥,等.APSIM模型的研究进展及其在中国的应用[J].中国农学通报,2017,33(18):1-6ZHAO Y X,QI Y Q,ZHU J,et al.Research progress of APSIM model and its application in China[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2017,33(18):1-6
[28]MA L,AHUJA L R,SASEENDRAN S A,et al.A protocol for parameterization and calibration of RZWQM2 in field research[M]//AHUJA L R,MA L W.Methods of Introducing System Models into Agricultural Research.Madison,WI:American Society of Agronomy,Crop Science Society of America,Soil Science Society of America,2011:1-64
[29]CHAMEIDES W L,YU H,LIU S C,et al.Case study of the effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze on agriculture:An opportunity to enhance crop yields in China through emission controls?[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,1999,96(24):13626-13633
[30]张志薇,王宏斌,张镭,等.中国地区3个AERONET站点气溶胶直接辐射强迫分析[J].中国科学院大学学报,2014,31(3):297-305ZHANG Z W,WANG H B,ZHANG L,et al.Aerosol direct radiative forcing at three AERONET sites in China[J].Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2014,31(3):297-305