气候变化背景下玛纳斯河流域绿洲适宜规模研究
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摘要
近年来干旱区人工绿洲规模不断扩大造成水资源日益紧张,其可持续利用面临新的挑战。为宏观调控水资源提供依据。基于水热平衡原理,以干旱区典型绿洲玛纳斯河流域为研究区,采用2000、2005、2010年和2015年的水文气象资料和各年(6～8月) TM遥感影像数据,分析了玛纳斯河流域在温室气体中、高排放(RCP4. 5和RCP8. 5)两种气候情景下,以及理想绿洲结构(AbdEIGhani)、现有绿洲结构两种绿洲分布情景下的绿洲适宜规模。结果显示:玛纳斯河流域2005、2010、2015年实际绿洲面积分别为2000年实际绿洲面积的109%,114. 91%,92. 39%; 2005、2010、2015年适宜绿洲面积分别为2000年适宜绿洲面积的111. 39%,118. 8%,115. 39%。2020年和2030年的结果对比发现,相同气候情景下AbdEI-Ghani绿洲结构的适宜绿洲面积低于现状结构下的绿洲面积,表明如果按照现状趋势发展,绿洲表现出过度开发的趋势。
The increasingly extending of the scale of the artificial oasis has strained the water resources which has made the sustainable utilization of water resources a challenge. Based on the principle of the Water and Heat Balance,the suitable scale of oasis in the Manas River Basin,Xinjiang,China under two climate scenarios( RCP4. 5and RCP8. 5) and two oasis structure distribution scenarios were analyzed using the hydro-meteorological data and the corresponding remotely sensed TM images in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 in the study region. The results show that the actual oasis area of Manas River Basin in 2005,2010 and 2015 was 109%,114. 91%,92. 39% of the actual oasis area in 2000,respectively. The suitable oasis area in 2005,2010 and 2015 can be 111. 39%,118. 8%,115. 39% of the oasis area in 2000 respectively. The oasis area on ideal AbdEI-Ghani oasis structure in 2020 and2030 was lower than that of the same year based on the current situation,which indicated that the oasis had a trend of overexploitation according to the development of the present situation.
The increasingly extending of the scale of the artificial oasis has strained the water resources which has made the sustainable utilization of water resources a challenge. Based on the principle of the Water and Heat Balance,the suitable scale of oasis in the Manas River Basin,Xinjiang,China under two climate scenarios( RCP4. 5and RCP8. 5) and two oasis structure distribution scenarios were analyzed using the hydro-meteorological data and the corresponding remotely sensed TM images in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 in the study region. The results show that the actual oasis area of Manas River Basin in 2005,2010 and 2015 was 109%,114. 91%,92. 39% of the actual oasis area in 2000,respectively. The suitable oasis area in 2005,2010 and 2015 can be 111. 39%,118. 8%,115. 39% of the oasis area in 2000 respectively. The oasis area on ideal AbdEI-Ghani oasis structure in 2020 and2030 was lower than that of the same year based on the current situation,which indicated that the oasis had a trend of overexploitation according to the development of the present situation.
引文
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[2]王忠静,王海峰,雷志栋.干旱内陆河区绿洲稳定性分析[J].水利学报,2002,33(5):26-31.[WANG Zhongjing,WANG Haifeng,LEI Zhidong. Stability analysis of oasis in arid region[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2002,33(5):26-31.]
[3]李啸虎,杨德刚,夏富强.干旱区城郊种植业水足迹分析与适宜耕地规模测算——以乌鲁木齐为例[J].生态学报,2015,35(9):1-15.[LI Xiaohu,YANG Degang,XIA Fuqiang. Analysis of the water footprint of suburban planting in arid lands and determination of suitable farmland scale:A case study of Urumqi[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(9):1-15.]
[4]张玉进.干旱区土地利用与土地覆盖变化对绿洲稳定性的影响研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学,2004.[ZHANG Yujin. Study on the influence of land use and land cover change on oasis stability in arid area[D]. Urumqi:Xinjiang University,2004.]
[5]钱正英.关于西北地区水资源配置、生态环境建设和可持续发展战略研究项目成果的汇报(节录)[J].中国水土保持,2003,(5):8-10.[QIAN Zhengying. On the results of water resources allocation,ecological environment construction and sustainable development in Northwest China strategic research project report(excerpt)[J]. Soil and Water Conservation in China,2003,(5):8-10.]
[6]樊自立,叶茂,徐海量,等.新疆玛纳斯河流域生态经济功能区划研究[J].干旱区地理,2010,33(4):493-501.[FAN Zili,YE Mao,XU Hailiang,et al. Ecological and economical functional regionalization in Manas River Valley of Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography,2010,33(4):493-501.]
[7] BUYANTUYEV A,WU J. Urbanization diversifies land surface phenology in arid environments:Interactions among vegetation,climatic variation,and land use pattern in the Phoenix metropolitan region,USA[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning,2012,105(1):149-159.
[8]新疆维吾尔自治区统计局.新疆统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2000—2010.[The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Statistical Bureau. Xinjiang statistical yearbook[M]. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2000-2010.]
[9]刘纪远.中国资源环境遥感宏观调查与动态研究[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1996.[LIU Jiyuan. Remote sensing macro survey and dynamic study of resources and environment in China[M]. Beijing:China Science and Technology Press,1996.]
[10]郭生练.气候变化与水面蒸发计算[J].武汉水利电力大学学报,1994,(1):99-106.[GUO Shenglian. Climate change and water surface evaporation calculation[J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Hydraulic and Elctric Engineering,1994,(1):99-106.]
[11] ABD EI-GHANI M M. Flora and vegetation of Gara oasis,Egypt[J]. Phytocoenologia,1992,21(1/2):1-14.
[12]冯异星,罗格平,周德成,等.近50 a土地利用变化对干旱区典型流域景观格局的影响——以新疆玛纳斯河流域为例[J].生态学报,2010,30(16):4295-4305.[FENG Yixing,LUO Geping,ZHOU Decheng,et al. Effects of land use change on landscape pattern of a typical arid watershed in the recent 50 years:A case study on Manas River Watershed in Xinjiang[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2010,30(16):4295-4305.]
[13]柯夫达,卢利坤.生物圈变化的总势趋[J].干旱区研究,1987,4(1):70-74.[KE Fuda,LU Likun. Total potential change trend of biosphere[J]. Arid Zone Research,1987,4(1):70-74.]
[14]姜亮亮,刘海隆,包安明,等.玛纳斯河流域景观格局演变特征与驱动机制分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(4):256-262.[JIANG Liangliang,LIU Hailong,BAO Anming,et al. Analysis of evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of landscape pattern in Manasi River Basin[J]. Research on Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(4):256-262.]
[15]杨书雅,杨会巾,刘丽娟,等.玛纳斯河流域绿洲农田防护林景观格局评价[J].生态学杂志,2017,36(6):1690-1698.[YANG Shuya,YANG Huijin,LIU Lijuan,et al. Evaluation of landscape pattern of oasis farmland shelterbelt in Manasi River Basin[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology,2017,36(6):1690-1698.]
[16]范文波,吴普特,马枫梅.膜下滴灌技术生态—经济与可持续性分析——以新疆玛纳斯河流域棉花为例[J].生态学报,2012,32(23):7559-7567.[FAN Wenbo,WU Pute,MA Fengmei. Drip irrigation technology and sustainable ecological economic analysis:Taking Xinjiang cotton Manasi River Basin as an example[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2012,32(23):7559-7567.]