南昌市CO_2排放特征与峰值预测研究
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摘要
分析南昌市CO_2排放特征,通过构建IPAT模型,对南昌市碳排放峰值进行预测。分析发现,煤炭消费是南昌市CO_2排放的主要来源,钢铁和电力行业是工业领域CO_2排放的最主要排放源,所占比重较为稳定。按照南昌市目前的发展趋势,预计2024年CO_2排放将达到峰值。未来保持能源强度和CO_2排放强度的不断下降,对南昌市低碳城市建设和尽快出现CO_2排放峰值至关重要,调整能源结构、提高清洁能源比重、构建以低排放为特征的产业体系、实施低碳政策应成为南昌市未来的重点工作任务。
This paper analyzed the CO_2 emission characteristics of Nanchang and forecasted its carbon dioxide emission peak by building an IPAT model. It can be found that coal consumption was the main source of CO_2 emissions in Nanchang. Steel and power industries were the main sources of CO_2 emissions in the industrial field of Nanchang, with a relatively stable proportion. According to the current development trend of Nanchang, CO_2 emissions are expected to peak in 2024. Keeping energy intensity and CO_2 emission intensity declining will be crucial for both the construction of low-carbon city and the peak of CO_2 emissions as soon as possible in Nanchang. And adjusting the energy structure, increasing the proportion of clean energy, building an industrial system with low carbon emission and implementing low-carbon policies should be the key tasks of Nanchang in the future.
This paper analyzed the CO_2 emission characteristics of Nanchang and forecasted its carbon dioxide emission peak by building an IPAT model. It can be found that coal consumption was the main source of CO_2 emissions in Nanchang. Steel and power industries were the main sources of CO_2 emissions in the industrial field of Nanchang, with a relatively stable proportion. According to the current development trend of Nanchang, CO_2 emissions are expected to peak in 2024. Keeping energy intensity and CO_2 emission intensity declining will be crucial for both the construction of low-carbon city and the peak of CO_2 emissions as soon as possible in Nanchang. And adjusting the energy structure, increasing the proportion of clean energy, building an industrial system with low carbon emission and implementing low-carbon policies should be the key tasks of Nanchang in the future.
引文
[1]徐华清,苏明山,杨姗姗.世界主要国家和集团温室气体排放峰值特征分析[EB/OL].[2018-11-28]. http://www.ncsc.org.cn/article/yxcg/yjgd/201404/20140400000865.shtml.
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[2]席细平,谢运生,王贺礼,等.基于IPAT模型的江西省碳排放峰值预测研究[J].江西科学, 2014, 32(6):768-772.
[3]姜克隽,胡秀莲,庄幸,等.中国2050年低碳情景和低碳发展之路[J].中外能源, 2009, 14(6):21-26.
[4]聂锐,张涛,王迪.基于IPAT模型的江苏省能源消费与碳排放情景研究[J].自然资源学报, 2010, 25(9):1557-1564.
[5]渠慎宁,郭朝先.基于STIRPAT模型的中国碳排放峰值预测研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2010, 20(12):10-15.