供给侧改革背景下云南省电量增长关联因素挖掘
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摘要
以云南省电量发展为研究对象,剖析了供给侧结构性改革的内涵,并首次从经济侧及电力侧2个角度建立供给侧改革因素的量化指标体系。基于此,通过线性与非线性结合的直接关联因素挖掘及系统性主成分分析等综合方法量化分析了供给侧改革因素对云南省电量发展的影响。结果表明,所提出的供给侧改革因素能较好地量化供给侧改革对电量发展的影响,同时所应用的分析方法能有效挖掘出云南省电量增长的主导性供给侧改革因素,为分析供给侧改革对电网规划的影响提供指导。
Taking electricity development of Yunnan province as the research object, this paper analyzes connotation of supply-side structural reform and establishes the quantitative index system of supply-side reform factors in economic side and power side for the first time. Then it quantitatively analyzes influence of supply-side reform factors on electricity development of Yunnan province by using some comprehensive analysis methods such as the direct associate factor mining method combining linearity and non-linearity and the systematic principal component method. The analysis results indicate the supply-side reform factors can well quantify influence of supply-side reform on electricity development. Meanwhile, those analysis methods can effectively excavate the dominant factor for electricity growth in Yunnan province which are able to provide guidance for analyzing influence of supply-side reform on power grid planning.
Taking electricity development of Yunnan province as the research object, this paper analyzes connotation of supply-side structural reform and establishes the quantitative index system of supply-side reform factors in economic side and power side for the first time. Then it quantitatively analyzes influence of supply-side reform factors on electricity development of Yunnan province by using some comprehensive analysis methods such as the direct associate factor mining method combining linearity and non-linearity and the systematic principal component method. The analysis results indicate the supply-side reform factors can well quantify influence of supply-side reform on electricity development. Meanwhile, those analysis methods can effectively excavate the dominant factor for electricity growth in Yunnan province which are able to provide guidance for analyzing influence of supply-side reform on power grid planning.
引文
[1] 乔小宁. 供给侧改革背景下的能源部门经济重要性评价[D].北京:中国矿业大学,2016.
[2] 肖兴志,李少林.能源供给侧改革:实践反思、国际镜鉴与动力找寻[J].价格理论与实践, 2016(2):23-28. XIAO Xingzhi, LI Shaolin. Energy supply-side reform: practice reflection, international mirror and the power finding [J]. Price:Theory & Practice, 2016(2):23-28.
[3] 徐阳. 基于经济新常态的城市电网电量需求预测研究[D].北京:华北电力大学, 2017.
[4] 单葆国,孙祥栋,李江涛,等.经济新常态下中国电力需求增长研判[J].中国电力, 2017, 50(1):19-24. SHAN Baoguo, SUN Xiangdong, LI Jiangtao, et al. Analysis on the China's electricity demand growth under the new economic norm [J]. Electric Power, 2017, 50(1):19-24.
[5] 郭挺,饶建业.“新常态”下广东省中长期电力需求预测[J].广东电力,2015,28(6):6-11. GUO Ting, RAO Jianye. Medium and long term electric power demand forecasting for guangdong province under the new normal [J]. Guangdong Electric Power, 2015,28(6):6-11.
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[7] 张文兴.供给侧结构改革视角下的云南电力行业发展思考[J].时代金融, 2017(26):100-101,103. ZHANG Wenxing. Reflections on the development of yunnan electric power industry from the perspective of supply-side structural reform [J]. Times Finance, 2017(26):100-101,103.
[8] 梅佳, 兰强.“供给侧改革”下电力行业循环经济产业融资创新研究[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2016(5):43-47. MEI Jia, LAN Qiang. Research on the financing innovation for electric power related circular economy industries under the supply-side reform [J]. Journal of North China Electric Power University (Social Sciences), 2016(5):43-47.
[9] 曾鸣.基于能源互联网平台的供给侧改革与需求侧响应[J].中国电力企业管理,2016(10):38-41. ZENG Min. Supply side reform and demand side response based on energy internet platform [J]. China Power Enterprise Management, 2016(10):38-41.
[10] 秦童.浅析供给侧改革背景下自然垄断产业的放松规制—以我国电力产业为例[J].知识经济,2016(18):23-24. QIN Tong. Analysis of deregulation of natural monopoly industry under the background of supply side reform —taking China's power industry as an example [J]. Knowledge Economy, 2016(18):23-24.
[11] 中国习观. 习近平:供给侧结构性改革的根本目的是提高社会生产力水平[EB/OL].[2016-01-19].http://www.china.com.cn/guoqing/xijinping/2016-01/19/content_40393692.htm.
[12] 云南网. 重大决策解读,云南供给侧改革怎么干?书记省长定调五大任务[EB/OL]. [2016-05-18].http://yn.yunnan.cn/html/2016-05/18/content_4342233.htm.
[13] 云南网. 供给侧改革,云南怎么做[EB/OL]. [2016-03-16].http://yn.yunnan.cn/html/2016-03/16/content_4230112. htm.
[14] 孙维峰,帅泉. 南网:推进供给侧结构性改革统筹电力体制改革等工作任务[EB/OL]. [2017-07-28].http://shoudian.bjx.com.cn/html/20170728/840089.shtml.
[15] 中国发展改革委员会. 关于深入推进供给侧结构性改革做好新形势下电力需求侧管理工作的通知[EB/OL].[2017-09-27].http://shoudian.bjx.com.cn/news/20170927/852594.shtml.
[16] GRETTON A, FUKUMIZU K, BHARATH K . Discussion of: brownian distance covariance [J]. Annals of Applied Statistics, 2009, 3(4):1299-1302.
[17] 李艳双, 曾珍香, 张闽,等. 主成分分析法在多指标综合评价方法中的应用[J]. 河北工业大学学报, 1999, 28(1):94-97. LI Yanshuang, ZENG ZhenXiang, ZHANG Min, et al. Application of primary component analysis in the methods of comprehensive evaluation for many indexes [J]. Journal of Hebei University of Technology, 1999, 28(1):94-97.
[18] 孙义豪,李秋燕,丁岩,等.基于主成分分析及系统聚类的县域电网综合评价方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(8):30-36. SUN Yihao,LI Qiuyan, DING Yan,et al. County power grid evaluation system based on principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(8):30-36.
[2] 肖兴志,李少林.能源供给侧改革:实践反思、国际镜鉴与动力找寻[J].价格理论与实践, 2016(2):23-28. XIAO Xingzhi, LI Shaolin. Energy supply-side reform: practice reflection, international mirror and the power finding [J]. Price:Theory & Practice, 2016(2):23-28.
[3] 徐阳. 基于经济新常态的城市电网电量需求预测研究[D].北京:华北电力大学, 2017.
[4] 单葆国,孙祥栋,李江涛,等.经济新常态下中国电力需求增长研判[J].中国电力, 2017, 50(1):19-24. SHAN Baoguo, SUN Xiangdong, LI Jiangtao, et al. Analysis on the China's electricity demand growth under the new economic norm [J]. Electric Power, 2017, 50(1):19-24.
[5] 郭挺,饶建业.“新常态”下广东省中长期电力需求预测[J].广东电力,2015,28(6):6-11. GUO Ting, RAO Jianye. Medium and long term electric power demand forecasting for guangdong province under the new normal [J]. Guangdong Electric Power, 2015,28(6):6-11.
[6] 郝宇,郑少卿,彭辉.“供给侧改革”背景下中国能源经济形势展望[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2017, 19(2):28-34. HAO Yu, ZHENG Shaoqing, PENG Hui. The perspective of China's energy economy under the background of the supply-side reform [J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 2017, 19(2):28-34.
[7] 张文兴.供给侧结构改革视角下的云南电力行业发展思考[J].时代金融, 2017(26):100-101,103. ZHANG Wenxing. Reflections on the development of yunnan electric power industry from the perspective of supply-side structural reform [J]. Times Finance, 2017(26):100-101,103.
[8] 梅佳, 兰强.“供给侧改革”下电力行业循环经济产业融资创新研究[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2016(5):43-47. MEI Jia, LAN Qiang. Research on the financing innovation for electric power related circular economy industries under the supply-side reform [J]. Journal of North China Electric Power University (Social Sciences), 2016(5):43-47.
[9] 曾鸣.基于能源互联网平台的供给侧改革与需求侧响应[J].中国电力企业管理,2016(10):38-41. ZENG Min. Supply side reform and demand side response based on energy internet platform [J]. China Power Enterprise Management, 2016(10):38-41.
[10] 秦童.浅析供给侧改革背景下自然垄断产业的放松规制—以我国电力产业为例[J].知识经济,2016(18):23-24. QIN Tong. Analysis of deregulation of natural monopoly industry under the background of supply side reform —taking China's power industry as an example [J]. Knowledge Economy, 2016(18):23-24.
[11] 中国习观. 习近平:供给侧结构性改革的根本目的是提高社会生产力水平[EB/OL].[2016-01-19].http://www.china.com.cn/guoqing/xijinping/2016-01/19/content_40393692.htm.
[12] 云南网. 重大决策解读,云南供给侧改革怎么干?书记省长定调五大任务[EB/OL]. [2016-05-18].http://yn.yunnan.cn/html/2016-05/18/content_4342233.htm.
[13] 云南网. 供给侧改革,云南怎么做[EB/OL]. [2016-03-16].http://yn.yunnan.cn/html/2016-03/16/content_4230112. htm.
[14] 孙维峰,帅泉. 南网:推进供给侧结构性改革统筹电力体制改革等工作任务[EB/OL]. [2017-07-28].http://shoudian.bjx.com.cn/html/20170728/840089.shtml.
[15] 中国发展改革委员会. 关于深入推进供给侧结构性改革做好新形势下电力需求侧管理工作的通知[EB/OL].[2017-09-27].http://shoudian.bjx.com.cn/news/20170927/852594.shtml.
[16] GRETTON A, FUKUMIZU K, BHARATH K . Discussion of: brownian distance covariance [J]. Annals of Applied Statistics, 2009, 3(4):1299-1302.
[17] 李艳双, 曾珍香, 张闽,等. 主成分分析法在多指标综合评价方法中的应用[J]. 河北工业大学学报, 1999, 28(1):94-97. LI Yanshuang, ZENG ZhenXiang, ZHANG Min, et al. Application of primary component analysis in the methods of comprehensive evaluation for many indexes [J]. Journal of Hebei University of Technology, 1999, 28(1):94-97.
[18] 孙义豪,李秋燕,丁岩,等.基于主成分分析及系统聚类的县域电网综合评价方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(8):30-36. SUN Yihao,LI Qiuyan, DING Yan,et al. County power grid evaluation system based on principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(8):30-36.