长江口影响水资源承载力关键指标与临界条件
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摘要
中国幅员辽阔,区域气象水文条件差异极大,社会经济发展不均衡,水资源问题极其复杂。因此,需根据不同水文分区,明确区域的水资源问题,识别区域水资源承载力的制约要素,提出物理机制明确且能反映水文机理的影响承载力关键指标及其对应的临界条件。该文以长江口为例,从问题产生的机理出发,识别出入海径流为河口水资源承载力的关键指标和水文要素,提出定值方法,结合动力学模型模拟长江口盐度场,确定长江口抵御咸潮入侵的入海径流的临界条件,以此作为水资源承载力的刚性约束,为不同水文分区展开类似工作提供借鉴。
Water resource issues are complicated in China due to the vast territory,great differences in regional meteorological and hydrological conditions,and the uneven socio-economic development.Therefore,water resource carrying capacity issues and constraints need to be identified for the various hydrological zones.Such studies will need an indicator with a clear physical meaning and its corresponding critical condition that reflects the hydrological mechanism to ensure reliable and acceptable water resource carrying capacities around the country.This paper uses the Yangtze River Estuary as an example for a mechanistic analysis of regional water issues to identify the constraints on the water resource carrying capacity.The runoff to the sea is used as a controllable hydrological indicator with the hydrodynamic model using a salinity limit to determine the critical point where the runoff to the sea can resist sea water intrusion for the Estuary.This method can also be applied to other hydrological regions.
Water resource issues are complicated in China due to the vast territory,great differences in regional meteorological and hydrological conditions,and the uneven socio-economic development.Therefore,water resource carrying capacity issues and constraints need to be identified for the various hydrological zones.Such studies will need an indicator with a clear physical meaning and its corresponding critical condition that reflects the hydrological mechanism to ensure reliable and acceptable water resource carrying capacities around the country.This paper uses the Yangtze River Estuary as an example for a mechanistic analysis of regional water issues to identify the constraints on the water resource carrying capacity.The runoff to the sea is used as a controllable hydrological indicator with the hydrodynamic model using a salinity limit to determine the critical point where the runoff to the sea can resist sea water intrusion for the Estuary.This method can also be applied to other hydrological regions.
引文
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[5]赵建世,王忠静,甘泓,等.双要素水资源承载能力计算模型及其应用[J].水力发电学报,2009,28(3):176-180.ZHAO J S,WANG Z J,GAN H,et al.Computable model for carrying capacity of two dimensional water resources and its application[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2009,28(3):176-180.(in Chinese)
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[9]郑恺,徐立荣,郑玉成.东营市河口区水环境承载力研究[J].人民黄河,2012,34(11):63-65,69.ZHENG K,XU L R,ZHENG Y C.Research on water environmental carrying capacity of Hekou district in Dongying City[J].Yellow River,2012,34(11):63-65,69.(in Chinese)
[10]郑富龙,李景宗,张红旗,等.黄河河口地区生态环境承载力多目标优化研究[J].人民黄河,2008,30(5):4-5,18.ZHENG F L,LI J Z,ZHANG H Q,et al.Study on multi-purpose optimization of ecotope carrying capacity of the Yellow River Estuary region[J].Yellow River,2008,30(5):4-5,18.(in Chinese)
[11]刘佳骏,董锁成,李泽红.中国水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(2):258-269.LIU J J,DONG S C,LI Z H.Comprehensive evaluation of China’s water resources carrying capacity[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(2):258-269.(in Chinese)
[12]蒋玫,沈新强,陈莲芳.长江口及邻近水域春季鱼卵仔鱼分布与环境因子的关系[J].海洋环境科学,2006,25(2):37-39,44.JIANG M,SHEN X Q,CHEN L F.Relationship between with abundance distribution of fish eggs,larvae and environmental factors in the Changjiang Estuary and vicinity waters in spring[J].Marine Environmental Science,2006,25(2):37-39,44.(in Chinese)
[13]丁磊,窦希萍,高祥宇,等.长江口2013年和2014年枯季盐水入侵分析[J].水利水运工程学报,2016(4):47-53.DING L,DOU X P,GAO X Y,et al.Analysis of saltwater intrusion into Yangtze Estuary during dry seasons of 2013and2014[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2016(4):47-53.(in Chinese)
[14]卢陈,袁丽蓉,高时友,等.潮汐强度与咸潮上溯距离试验[J].水科学进展,2013,24(2):251-257.LU C,YUAN L R,GAO S Y,et al.Experimental study on the relationship between tide strength and salt intrusion length[J].Advances in Water Science,2013,24(2):251-257.(in Chinese)
[15]陈敏建,胡雅杰,马静,等.长江口咸潮入侵扩散响应函数及初步应用[J].水科学进展,2017,28(2):203-212.CHEN M J,HU Y J,MA J,et al.Diffusion response function and preliminary application of saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze River Estuary[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(2):203-212.(in Chinese)
[16]夏雪瑾,徐健,冯文静,等.长江入海流量趋势及大通-徐六泾流量关系探讨[J].中国水运,2016(6):71-73.XIA X X,XU J,FENG W J,et al.Study on the trend of the runoff discharge of the Yangtze River and the relationship of runoff discharge between Datong and Xuliujing[J].China Water Transport,2016(6):71-73.(in Chinese)
[17]龚政,张长宽,金勇,等.长江口斜压诊断模式三维流场数值模拟[J].水科学进展,2004,15(3):300-306.GONG Z,ZHANG C K,JIN Y,et al.3-D current numerical model for the Yangtze River Estuary with baroclinic-diagnosis mode[J].Advances in Water Science,2004,15(3):300-306.(in Chinese)
[18]吴辉,朱建荣.长江河口北支倒灌盐水输送机制分析[J].海洋学报,2007,29(1):17-25.WU H,ZHU J R.Analysis of the transport mechanism of the saltwater spilling over from the North Branch in the Changjiang Estuary in China[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2007,29(1):17-25.(in Chinese)
[19]DHI.Mike 21&Mike 3flow model FM hydrodynamic and transport module scientific documentation[EB/OL].[2018-02-15].http://www.donpedro-relicensing.com/Lists/Announcements/Atta-chments/112/WAR-03_Attachment_C.pdf.2011.
[20]杨同军.长江河口盐水入侵二、三维数值模拟研究[D].南京:河海大学,2013.YANG T J.Research on salinity intrusion in the Yangtze River Estuary by 2D and 3D numerical simulation[D].Nanjing:Hohai University,2013.(in Chinese)
[21]孙波.三峡与南水北调工程对长江口盐水楔影响的数值研究[D].上海:同济大学,2009.SUN B.The numerical study on the influence of the three gorges project and the south-to-north water diversion project on the saltwater wedge of the Yangtze River Estuary[D].Shanghai:Tongji University,2009.(in Chinese)
[22]WILLMOTT C J.On the validation of models[J].Physical Geography,1981,2(2):184-194.
[23]陈敏建,周飞,马静,等.水害损失函数与洪涝损失评估[J].水利学报,2015,46(8):883-891.CHEN M J,ZHOU F,MA J,et al.Water-induced disaster damage function and flood and water-logging damage assessment[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(8):883-891.(in Chinese)
[24]XU Z,MA J,WANG H,et al.River discharge and saltwater intrusion level study of Yangtze River Estuary,China[J].Water,2018,10(6):683.DOI:10.3390/w10060683.
[2]王浩,陈敏建,秦大庸.西北地区水资源合理配置和承载能力研究[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,2003.WANG H,CHEN M J,QIN D Y.Study on rational allocation and carrying capacity of water resources in Northwest China[M].Zhengzhou:Yellow River Conservancy Press,2003.(in Chinese)
[3]龙腾锐,姜文超,何强.水资源承载力内涵的新认识[J].水利学报,2004,35(1):38-45.LONG T R,JIANG W C,HE Q.Water resources carrying capacity:New perspectives based on eco-economic analysis and sustainable development[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2004,35(1):38-45.(in Chinese)
[4]许新宜,王浩,甘泓.华北地区宏观经济水资源规划理论与方法[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,1998.XU X Y,WANG H,GAN H.Theories and methods of macroeconomic water resources planning in North China[M].Zhengzhou:Yellow River Conservancy Press,1998.(in Chinese)
[5]赵建世,王忠静,甘泓,等.双要素水资源承载能力计算模型及其应用[J].水力发电学报,2009,28(3):176-180.ZHAO J S,WANG Z J,GAN H,et al.Computable model for carrying capacity of two dimensional water resources and its application[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2009,28(3):176-180.(in Chinese)
[6]NAIMI-AIT-AOUDIA M,BEREZOWSKA-AZZAG E.Algiers carrying capacity with respect to per capita domestic water use[J].Sustainable Cities and Society,2014,13:1-11.
[7]GRAYMORE M L M,SIPE N G,RICKSON R E.Sustaining human carrying capacity:A tool for regional sustainability assessment[J].Ecological Economics,2010,69(3):459-468.
[8]LANE M,DAWES L,GRACE P.The essential parameters of a resource-based carrying capacity assessment model:An Australian case study[J].Ecological Modelling,2014,272:220-231.
[9]郑恺,徐立荣,郑玉成.东营市河口区水环境承载力研究[J].人民黄河,2012,34(11):63-65,69.ZHENG K,XU L R,ZHENG Y C.Research on water environmental carrying capacity of Hekou district in Dongying City[J].Yellow River,2012,34(11):63-65,69.(in Chinese)
[10]郑富龙,李景宗,张红旗,等.黄河河口地区生态环境承载力多目标优化研究[J].人民黄河,2008,30(5):4-5,18.ZHENG F L,LI J Z,ZHANG H Q,et al.Study on multi-purpose optimization of ecotope carrying capacity of the Yellow River Estuary region[J].Yellow River,2008,30(5):4-5,18.(in Chinese)
[11]刘佳骏,董锁成,李泽红.中国水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(2):258-269.LIU J J,DONG S C,LI Z H.Comprehensive evaluation of China’s water resources carrying capacity[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(2):258-269.(in Chinese)
[12]蒋玫,沈新强,陈莲芳.长江口及邻近水域春季鱼卵仔鱼分布与环境因子的关系[J].海洋环境科学,2006,25(2):37-39,44.JIANG M,SHEN X Q,CHEN L F.Relationship between with abundance distribution of fish eggs,larvae and environmental factors in the Changjiang Estuary and vicinity waters in spring[J].Marine Environmental Science,2006,25(2):37-39,44.(in Chinese)
[13]丁磊,窦希萍,高祥宇,等.长江口2013年和2014年枯季盐水入侵分析[J].水利水运工程学报,2016(4):47-53.DING L,DOU X P,GAO X Y,et al.Analysis of saltwater intrusion into Yangtze Estuary during dry seasons of 2013and2014[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2016(4):47-53.(in Chinese)
[14]卢陈,袁丽蓉,高时友,等.潮汐强度与咸潮上溯距离试验[J].水科学进展,2013,24(2):251-257.LU C,YUAN L R,GAO S Y,et al.Experimental study on the relationship between tide strength and salt intrusion length[J].Advances in Water Science,2013,24(2):251-257.(in Chinese)
[15]陈敏建,胡雅杰,马静,等.长江口咸潮入侵扩散响应函数及初步应用[J].水科学进展,2017,28(2):203-212.CHEN M J,HU Y J,MA J,et al.Diffusion response function and preliminary application of saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze River Estuary[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(2):203-212.(in Chinese)
[16]夏雪瑾,徐健,冯文静,等.长江入海流量趋势及大通-徐六泾流量关系探讨[J].中国水运,2016(6):71-73.XIA X X,XU J,FENG W J,et al.Study on the trend of the runoff discharge of the Yangtze River and the relationship of runoff discharge between Datong and Xuliujing[J].China Water Transport,2016(6):71-73.(in Chinese)
[17]龚政,张长宽,金勇,等.长江口斜压诊断模式三维流场数值模拟[J].水科学进展,2004,15(3):300-306.GONG Z,ZHANG C K,JIN Y,et al.3-D current numerical model for the Yangtze River Estuary with baroclinic-diagnosis mode[J].Advances in Water Science,2004,15(3):300-306.(in Chinese)
[18]吴辉,朱建荣.长江河口北支倒灌盐水输送机制分析[J].海洋学报,2007,29(1):17-25.WU H,ZHU J R.Analysis of the transport mechanism of the saltwater spilling over from the North Branch in the Changjiang Estuary in China[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2007,29(1):17-25.(in Chinese)
[19]DHI.Mike 21&Mike 3flow model FM hydrodynamic and transport module scientific documentation[EB/OL].[2018-02-15].http://www.donpedro-relicensing.com/Lists/Announcements/Atta-chments/112/WAR-03_Attachment_C.pdf.2011.
[20]杨同军.长江河口盐水入侵二、三维数值模拟研究[D].南京:河海大学,2013.YANG T J.Research on salinity intrusion in the Yangtze River Estuary by 2D and 3D numerical simulation[D].Nanjing:Hohai University,2013.(in Chinese)
[21]孙波.三峡与南水北调工程对长江口盐水楔影响的数值研究[D].上海:同济大学,2009.SUN B.The numerical study on the influence of the three gorges project and the south-to-north water diversion project on the saltwater wedge of the Yangtze River Estuary[D].Shanghai:Tongji University,2009.(in Chinese)
[22]WILLMOTT C J.On the validation of models[J].Physical Geography,1981,2(2):184-194.
[23]陈敏建,周飞,马静,等.水害损失函数与洪涝损失评估[J].水利学报,2015,46(8):883-891.CHEN M J,ZHOU F,MA J,et al.Water-induced disaster damage function and flood and water-logging damage assessment[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(8):883-891.(in Chinese)
[24]XU Z,MA J,WANG H,et al.River discharge and saltwater intrusion level study of Yangtze River Estuary,China[J].Water,2018,10(6):683.DOI:10.3390/w10060683.
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