我国消费平滑的地区性差异及其根源:家庭、社区和政府的比较分析
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摘要
文章根据2010-2014年CFPS的调查数据,深入分析了中国家庭消费平滑的区域差异及其根源。首先,基于风险分担模型,选取合适的代理变量测度了东部、中部和西部地区以及城乡家庭消费平滑的能力;其次,运用Oaxaca-Blinder分解法从家庭、社区和政府三个层面去寻找导致消费平滑的根源。研究结果发现:东部地区家庭的消费平滑能力最强,中部次之,西部最弱,并且城镇家庭的消费平滑能力也要强于农村家庭。消费平滑区域差异的主要根源来自家庭自给与国家政策层面,尤以家庭净财产和政府补助的作用最为突出。这也反映了政府没能成功利用转移支付等方式去进行有效的收入再分配,从而达到缩小区域间消费平滑差异的目的。而社区层面上的家庭社会交往,则对缩小地区间消费平滑能力差距起了显著作用。其他一些因素如户主学历、家庭规模和区域金融比率等也影响着平滑能力的大小。各地区政府需要针对上述深层次的原因,有的放矢地采取措施方能提升当地的消费潜力。
According to the survey data of CFPS in Peking University from 2010 to 2014,this paper deeply analyzes the regional differences and causes of household consumption smoothing in China. Firstly,based on the risk-sharing model,the appropriate agent variables are selected to measure the ability of consumption smoothing in the eastern,central and western regions,including urban and rural areas. Secondly,the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method is adopted from the three angles:family self-sufficiency,social networks and national policies,to find the root source of smooth consumption. The study finds that households in the eastern region own the strongest ability of consumption smoothing,followed by the middle and the weakest in the west,and the urban households also have stronger spending power than the rural households. The main sources of differences in consumption smoothing regions are from the level of household self-sufficiency and national policies,especially the role of household net assets and government subsidies. It also reflects that the government fails to use transfer payments and other means to carry out effective income redistribution,so as to achieve the purpose of narrowing consumption differences between regions. Social networks play a significant positive role in narrowing the regional gap in consumption smoothing. Some other factors such as the level of the head's education,family size,and regional financial development also affect the ability to smooth. All regions need to focus on the deep-rooted sources of household consumption smoothing,which can effectively increase the potential of local consumption.
According to the survey data of CFPS in Peking University from 2010 to 2014,this paper deeply analyzes the regional differences and causes of household consumption smoothing in China. Firstly,based on the risk-sharing model,the appropriate agent variables are selected to measure the ability of consumption smoothing in the eastern,central and western regions,including urban and rural areas. Secondly,the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method is adopted from the three angles:family self-sufficiency,social networks and national policies,to find the root source of smooth consumption. The study finds that households in the eastern region own the strongest ability of consumption smoothing,followed by the middle and the weakest in the west,and the urban households also have stronger spending power than the rural households. The main sources of differences in consumption smoothing regions are from the level of household self-sufficiency and national policies,especially the role of household net assets and government subsidies. It also reflects that the government fails to use transfer payments and other means to carry out effective income redistribution,so as to achieve the purpose of narrowing consumption differences between regions. Social networks play a significant positive role in narrowing the regional gap in consumption smoothing. Some other factors such as the level of the head's education,family size,and regional financial development also affect the ability to smooth. All regions need to focus on the deep-rooted sources of household consumption smoothing,which can effectively increase the potential of local consumption.
引文
[1]蔡宁,李钢,阮刚辉.利率政策对我国居民跨期消费选择的效应研究[J].经济科学,2002,(4):23-24.
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[4]邓曲恒.农村家庭的消费平滑:对完全保险假说的检验[J].浙江学刊,2012,(5):163-173.
[5]高梦滔,毕岚岚.家庭人口学特征与农户消费增长-基于八省微观面板数据的实证分析[J].中国人口科学,2010,(6):70-78.
[6]郭新华,李卓宇.劳动供给对消费平滑的影响——基于RUMiC数据的微观实证[J].湘潭大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017,41(1):72-79.
[7]郭云南,姚洋,Foltz J.正式与非正式权威、问责与平滑消费:来自中国村庄的经验数据[J].管理世界,2012,(1):67-78.
[8]寇恩惠,侯和宏.消费平滑、收入波动和局部保险-基于农村居民数据的分析[J].财贸经济,2015,(9):33-45.
[9]李宏彬,施新政,吴斌珍.中国居民退休前后的消费行为研究[J].经济学(季刊),2015,(1):117-134.
[10]陆铭,张爽,佐藤宏.市场化进程中社会资本还能够充当保险机制吗?-中国农村家庭灾后消费的经验研究[J].世界经济文汇,2010,(1):16-38.
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[12]粟芳,方蕾.中国农村金融排斥的区域差异:供给不足还是需求不足?-银行、保险和互联网金融的比较分析[J].管理世界,2016,(9):70-83.
[13]王晓全,骆帝涛,王奇.非正式保险制度与农户风险分担建模与政策含义-来自CFPS数据的实证研究[J].经济科学,2016,(6):89-101.
[14]邢春冰.农民工与城镇职工的收入差距[J].管理世界,2008,(5):55-64.
[15]邹红,喻开志.退休与城镇家庭消费:基于断点回归设计的经验证据[J].经济研究,2015,(1):124-139.
[16]左文明,莫小华,陈华琼.国内消费模式研究综述与展望[J].经济管理,2015,(2):189-199.
[17]Ambrus A,Mobius M,Szeidl A. Consumption risk-sharing in social networks[J]. The American Economic Review,2014,104(1):149-182.
[18]Angelucci M,De Giorgi G,Rangel M A,et al. Family networks and school enrolment:Evidence from a randomized social experiment[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2010,94(3-4):197-221.
[19]Attanasio O,Meghir C,Mommaerts C. Insurance in extended family networks[R]. NBER Working Paper No. 21059,2015.
[20]Attanasio O,Meghir C,Santiago A. Education choices in Mexico:Using a structural model and a randomized experiment to evaluate Progresa[J]. The Review of Economic Studies,2012,79(1):37-66.
[21]Bayoumi T. Explaining consumption:A simple test of alternative hypotheses[J]. Staff Papers-International Monetary Fund,1997,44(4):462-484.
[22]Bazzi S,Sumarto S,Suryahadi A. It’s all in the timing:Cash transfers and consumption smoothing in a developing country[J]. Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization,2015,119:267-288.
[23]Blundell R,Pistaferri L,Preston I. Consumption inequality and partial insurance[J]. American Economic Review,2008,98(5):1887-1921.
[24]Blundell R,Pistaferri L,Saporta-EkstenI. Consumption inequality and family labor supply[J]. American Economic Review,2016,106(2):387-435.
[25]Blundell R,Pistaferri L,Saporta-Eksten I. Children,time allocation and consumption insurance[R]. NBER Working Paper No. 24006,2017.
[26]BramoulléY,Kranton R. Public goods in networks[J]. Journal of Economic Theory,2007,135(1):478-494.
[27]Bronchetti E T. Workers’ compensation and consumption smoothing[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2012,96(5-6):495-508.
[28]Chetty R,Looney A. Consumption smoothing and the welfare consequences of social insurance in developing economies[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2006,90(12):2351-2356.
[29]Colmer J,Alem Y. Consumption smoothing and the welfare cost of uncertainty[R]. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 138,2015.
[30]Deaton A. On risk,insurance,and intra-village consumption smoothing[C]. Research Program in Development Studies,Working Paper,1990.
[31]Diamond P A. The role of a stock market in a general equilibrium model with technological uncertainty[J]. American Economic Review,1967,57(4):759-776.
[32]Fafchamps M,Lund S. Risk-sharing networks in rural Philippines[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2003,71(2):261-287.
[33]Friedman M. The permanent income hypothesis:Comment[J]. American Economics Review,1957,48(5):990-991.
[34]GruberJ.Theconsumptionsmoothingbenefitsofunemploymentinsurance[J].AmericanEconomicReview, 1997,87(1):192-205.
[35]Gruber J. Cash welfare as a consumption smoothing mechanism for divorced mothers[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2000,75(2):157-182.
[36]Gul F,Pesendorfer W. Self-control and the theory of consumption[J]. Econometrica,2004,72(1):119-158.
[37]Jann B. A Stata implementation of the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition[R]. Eth Zurich Sociology Working Papers No. 8,2008.
[38]Kaplan G,Violante G L. A model of the consumption response to fiscal stimulus payments[J]. Econometrica,2014,82(4):1199-1239.
[39]Kochar A. Smoothing consumption by smoothing income:Hours-of-work responses to idiosyncratic agricultural shocks in rural India[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,1999,81(1):50-61.
[40]L’Huillier J P,Piguillem F,Flemming J. The optimal tradeoff between consumption smoothing and macroprudential regulation[R]. Meeting Papers 492,Society for Economic Dynamics, 2015.
[41]Ljungqvist L,Uhlig H. Tax policy and aggregate demand management under catching up with the joneses[J]. American Economic Review,2000,90(3):356-366.
[42]Meng X. Unemployment,consumption smoothing,and precautionary saving in urban China[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,2003,31(3):465-485.
[43]ModiglianiF, BrumbergR.Utilityanalysisandtheconsumptionfunction:Aninterpretationofcross-section data[A].Kurihara K. Post Keynesian economics[C]. New Brunswick:Rutgers University Press,1954.
[44]Townsend R M. Risk and insurance in village India[J]. Econometrica,1994,62(3):539-591.
[45]Udry C. Risk and saving in northern Nigeria[J]. American Economic Review,1995,85(5):1287-1300.
[46]Zheng Y,Santaeulalia-Llopis R. Partial insurance and aggregate welfare in China:1989 to 2009[R]. Meeting Papers1389,Society for Economic Dynamics,2014.
[2]陈玉宇,行伟波.消费平滑、风险分担与完全保险-基于城镇家庭收支调查的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊),2007,(1):253-272.
[3]邓可斌,易行健.预防性储蓄动机的异质性与消费倾向的变化-基于中国城镇居民的研究[J].财贸经济,2010,(5):14-19.
[4]邓曲恒.农村家庭的消费平滑:对完全保险假说的检验[J].浙江学刊,2012,(5):163-173.
[5]高梦滔,毕岚岚.家庭人口学特征与农户消费增长-基于八省微观面板数据的实证分析[J].中国人口科学,2010,(6):70-78.
[6]郭新华,李卓宇.劳动供给对消费平滑的影响——基于RUMiC数据的微观实证[J].湘潭大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017,41(1):72-79.
[7]郭云南,姚洋,Foltz J.正式与非正式权威、问责与平滑消费:来自中国村庄的经验数据[J].管理世界,2012,(1):67-78.
[8]寇恩惠,侯和宏.消费平滑、收入波动和局部保险-基于农村居民数据的分析[J].财贸经济,2015,(9):33-45.
[9]李宏彬,施新政,吴斌珍.中国居民退休前后的消费行为研究[J].经济学(季刊),2015,(1):117-134.
[10]陆铭,张爽,佐藤宏.市场化进程中社会资本还能够充当保险机制吗?-中国农村家庭灾后消费的经验研究[J].世界经济文汇,2010,(1):16-38.
[11]马小勇,白永秀.中国农户的收入风险应对机制与消费波动:来自陕西的经验证据[J].经济学(季刊),2009,(4):1221-1238.
[12]粟芳,方蕾.中国农村金融排斥的区域差异:供给不足还是需求不足?-银行、保险和互联网金融的比较分析[J].管理世界,2016,(9):70-83.
[13]王晓全,骆帝涛,王奇.非正式保险制度与农户风险分担建模与政策含义-来自CFPS数据的实证研究[J].经济科学,2016,(6):89-101.
[14]邢春冰.农民工与城镇职工的收入差距[J].管理世界,2008,(5):55-64.
[15]邹红,喻开志.退休与城镇家庭消费:基于断点回归设计的经验证据[J].经济研究,2015,(1):124-139.
[16]左文明,莫小华,陈华琼.国内消费模式研究综述与展望[J].经济管理,2015,(2):189-199.
[17]Ambrus A,Mobius M,Szeidl A. Consumption risk-sharing in social networks[J]. The American Economic Review,2014,104(1):149-182.
[18]Angelucci M,De Giorgi G,Rangel M A,et al. Family networks and school enrolment:Evidence from a randomized social experiment[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2010,94(3-4):197-221.
[19]Attanasio O,Meghir C,Mommaerts C. Insurance in extended family networks[R]. NBER Working Paper No. 21059,2015.
[20]Attanasio O,Meghir C,Santiago A. Education choices in Mexico:Using a structural model and a randomized experiment to evaluate Progresa[J]. The Review of Economic Studies,2012,79(1):37-66.
[21]Bayoumi T. Explaining consumption:A simple test of alternative hypotheses[J]. Staff Papers-International Monetary Fund,1997,44(4):462-484.
[22]Bazzi S,Sumarto S,Suryahadi A. It’s all in the timing:Cash transfers and consumption smoothing in a developing country[J]. Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization,2015,119:267-288.
[23]Blundell R,Pistaferri L,Preston I. Consumption inequality and partial insurance[J]. American Economic Review,2008,98(5):1887-1921.
[24]Blundell R,Pistaferri L,Saporta-EkstenI. Consumption inequality and family labor supply[J]. American Economic Review,2016,106(2):387-435.
[25]Blundell R,Pistaferri L,Saporta-Eksten I. Children,time allocation and consumption insurance[R]. NBER Working Paper No. 24006,2017.
[26]BramoulléY,Kranton R. Public goods in networks[J]. Journal of Economic Theory,2007,135(1):478-494.
[27]Bronchetti E T. Workers’ compensation and consumption smoothing[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2012,96(5-6):495-508.
[28]Chetty R,Looney A. Consumption smoothing and the welfare consequences of social insurance in developing economies[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2006,90(12):2351-2356.
[29]Colmer J,Alem Y. Consumption smoothing and the welfare cost of uncertainty[R]. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 138,2015.
[30]Deaton A. On risk,insurance,and intra-village consumption smoothing[C]. Research Program in Development Studies,Working Paper,1990.
[31]Diamond P A. The role of a stock market in a general equilibrium model with technological uncertainty[J]. American Economic Review,1967,57(4):759-776.
[32]Fafchamps M,Lund S. Risk-sharing networks in rural Philippines[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2003,71(2):261-287.
[33]Friedman M. The permanent income hypothesis:Comment[J]. American Economics Review,1957,48(5):990-991.
[34]GruberJ.Theconsumptionsmoothingbenefitsofunemploymentinsurance[J].AmericanEconomicReview, 1997,87(1):192-205.
[35]Gruber J. Cash welfare as a consumption smoothing mechanism for divorced mothers[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2000,75(2):157-182.
[36]Gul F,Pesendorfer W. Self-control and the theory of consumption[J]. Econometrica,2004,72(1):119-158.
[37]Jann B. A Stata implementation of the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition[R]. Eth Zurich Sociology Working Papers No. 8,2008.
[38]Kaplan G,Violante G L. A model of the consumption response to fiscal stimulus payments[J]. Econometrica,2014,82(4):1199-1239.
[39]Kochar A. Smoothing consumption by smoothing income:Hours-of-work responses to idiosyncratic agricultural shocks in rural India[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,1999,81(1):50-61.
[40]L’Huillier J P,Piguillem F,Flemming J. The optimal tradeoff between consumption smoothing and macroprudential regulation[R]. Meeting Papers 492,Society for Economic Dynamics, 2015.
[41]Ljungqvist L,Uhlig H. Tax policy and aggregate demand management under catching up with the joneses[J]. American Economic Review,2000,90(3):356-366.
[42]Meng X. Unemployment,consumption smoothing,and precautionary saving in urban China[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,2003,31(3):465-485.
[43]ModiglianiF, BrumbergR.Utilityanalysisandtheconsumptionfunction:Aninterpretationofcross-section data[A].Kurihara K. Post Keynesian economics[C]. New Brunswick:Rutgers University Press,1954.
[44]Townsend R M. Risk and insurance in village India[J]. Econometrica,1994,62(3):539-591.
[45]Udry C. Risk and saving in northern Nigeria[J]. American Economic Review,1995,85(5):1287-1300.
[46]Zheng Y,Santaeulalia-Llopis R. Partial insurance and aggregate welfare in China:1989 to 2009[R]. Meeting Papers1389,Society for Economic Dynamics,2014.
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