共享单车引入后通勤者出行方式选择影响因素建模
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摘要
为研究共享单车的引入对通勤者出行方式选择的影响,通过对南京市通勤居民进行出行问卷调查,从社会经济属性、家庭属性、出行特性及出行意愿4个方面,采用混合logit模型分析通勤者在共享单车出现后的出行方式选择影响因素。结果表明,性别、收入、企事业者/教师医生、拥有私家车、出行费用、出行距离、出行时间及舒适性对通勤者选择私家车出行都是正显著的;年龄、企事业者、出行费用、出行时间及经济/安全/环保性对通勤者选择公共交通具有显著正影响;收入、出行距离、出行时间及安全性对通勤者选择自行车出行具有显著负影响;年龄、性别、出行距离、出行时间及安全性对通勤者选择共享单车出行具有显著负影响。其中,注重经济性的通勤者选择公共交通的概率会达到65.58%,注重环保性的通勤者选择公共交通出行的概率可达到84.55%;注重舒适性和注重经济性相比,优先考虑舒适性,即更愿意选择私家车出行。
Based on a questionnaire survey of commuters in Nanjing, China, influences of bike-sharing on their travel mode selection is studied. A mixed logit model is used to analyze influencing factors of travel mode selection of commuters from four aspects, including social-demographic factors, family attributes, travel characteristics, and willingness to travel. The results show that gender, income, business/teachers doctors, own private cars, travel cost, distance, time, and comfort are all positive significant for commuters to travel by private cars. However, age, business, travel cost, time, and economy/safety/environment are the factors that have significant positive impacts on commuters to use public transport. The income, distance, time, and comfort have significant negative impacts on commuters to use bicycle. The age, gender, travel distance, time, and comfort have significant negative impacts on commuters to use bike-sharing. Among them, the probability of cost-conscious commuters to choose public transport is 65.58%, while which of environmentally conscious commuters can reach 84.55%. Compared comfort with economy, commuters who prefer comfort more willing to travel by private cars.
Based on a questionnaire survey of commuters in Nanjing, China, influences of bike-sharing on their travel mode selection is studied. A mixed logit model is used to analyze influencing factors of travel mode selection of commuters from four aspects, including social-demographic factors, family attributes, travel characteristics, and willingness to travel. The results show that gender, income, business/teachers doctors, own private cars, travel cost, distance, time, and comfort are all positive significant for commuters to travel by private cars. However, age, business, travel cost, time, and economy/safety/environment are the factors that have significant positive impacts on commuters to use public transport. The income, distance, time, and comfort have significant negative impacts on commuters to use bicycle. The age, gender, travel distance, time, and comfort have significant negative impacts on commuters to use bike-sharing. Among them, the probability of cost-conscious commuters to choose public transport is 65.58%, while which of environmentally conscious commuters can reach 84.55%. Compared comfort with economy, commuters who prefer comfort more willing to travel by private cars.
引文
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[7] 翁剑成,涂强,林鹏飞,等.票价调整对公交出行者出行选择的影响分析[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2017,41(3):419-424,429. WENG Jiancheng, TU Qiang, LIN Pengfei, et al. Impact analysis of public transport price adjustment on travel choice for travelers [J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology (Transportation Science & Engineering), 2017,41(3):419-424,429. (in Chinese)
[8] ANDREW A C, CHRISTOPHER R C, MEGAN S R, et al. Factors influencing the choice of shared and shared electric bikes in Beijing[J]. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2016(67):399-414.
[9] LI W B, KAMARGIANNI M. Providing quantified evidence to policy makers for promoting bike-sharing in heavily air-polluted cities: A mode choice mode and policy simulation for Taiyuan-China[J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2018(111):277-291.
[10] ARITRA Pal, YU Zhang. Free-floating bike sharing: Solving real-life large-scale static rebalancing problems[J]. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2017(80):92-116.
[11] 冉林娜,李枫.共享单车出行特性与出行行为分析[J].交通信息与安全,2017,35(6):93-100,114. RAN Linna, LI Feng. An analysis on characteristics and behaviors of traveling by bike-sharing[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2017,35(6):93-100,114. (in Chinese)
[12] 袁鹏伟,董晓庆,翟怀远,等.基于Nested Logit模型的共享单车选择行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2018,18(5):191-196,210. YUAN Pengwei, DONG Xiaoqing, ZHAI Huaiyuan, et al. Choice behavior of bike-sharing based on nested logit model[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2018,18(5):191-196,210. (in Chinese)
[13] 魏宗财,莫海彤,刘玉亭.面向智慧城市的共享单车出行时空间特征研究:以广州天河中心区为例[J].科技导报,2018,36(18):71-80. WEI Zongcai, MO Haitong, LIU Yuting. Spatiotemporal characteristics of bike-sharing: An empirical study of Tianhe District, Guangzhou[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2018,36(18):71-80. (in Chinese)
[14] 宋永朝,杨培.基于多源数据的通勤高峰期出行方式分担率预测方法研究[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2018,37(5):84-91. SONG Y C, YANG P. Prediction method of travel mode share rate in commuting peak period based on multi-source date[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University (Natural Science), 2018,37(5):84-91. (in Chinese)
[15] 唐立,邹彤,罗霞,等.基于混合logit模型的网约车选择行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2018,18(1):108-114. TANG Li, ZHOU Tong, LUO Xia, et al. Choice behavior of taxi-hailing based on mixed-logit model[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2018,18(1):108-114. (in Chinese)
[16] 栾鑫,邓卫,程琳,等.特大城市居民出行方式选择行为的混合logit模型[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2018,48(4):1029-1036. LUAN Xin, DENG Wei, CHENG Lin, CHEN Xinyuan. Mixed logit mode for understanding travel mode choice behavior of megalopolitan residents[J]. Journal of Jinlin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2018,48(4):1029-1036. (in Chinese)
[17] 关金平,杨东援.离散选择高阶段Logit模型的建模与预测:以上海城市外围大型居住社区为例[J].计算机工程与应用,2015,51(13):1-8. GUAN Jinping, YANG Dongyuan. Advanced discrete choice logit models and estimation and forecast: case in large scale residential area on shanghai city periphery[J]. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2015,51(13):1-8. (in Chinese)
[18] KHANDKER N H, MANN J, MOHAMED M, et al. Synopsis of bicycle demand in the City of Toronto: Investigating the effects of perception, consciousness and comfortability on the purpose of biking and bike ownership[J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2014(70):67-80.
[19] 尹超英,邵春福,王晓全.考虑停车可用性的建成环境对小汽车通勤出行的影响[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2018,41(1):31-37. YIN Chaoyin, SHAO Chunfu, WANG Xiaoquan. Influence of urban built environment on car commuting considering parking availability[J]. Journal of University (Engineering and Technology Edition), 2018,41(1):31-37. (in Chinese)
[2] JIA N, LI L Y, LING S, et al. Influence of attitudinal and low-carbon factors on behavioral intention of commuting mode choice - A cross-city study in China[J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2018(111):108-118.
[3] 王玲玲.基于出行链联合选择模型的通勤方式选择研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2018,40(6):84-88. WANG Lingling. A research on commuting mode choice based on the trip chain integrated choosing model[J]. Railway Transport and Economy, 2018,40(6):84-88. (in Chinese)
[4] 潘驰,郭志达.社会互动效应下通勤者出行方式选择行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2017,17(6):101-106. PAN Chi, CUO Zhida. Commuter behavior mechanism of travel mode choice based on the perspective of social interaction[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2017,17(6):101-106. (in Chinese)
[5] 肖光年,隽志才,张春勤.通勤出行方式和出行时间选择的离散-连续模型[J].系统管理学报,2017,26(6):1131-1135,1142. XIAO Guangnian, JUAN Zhicai, ZHANG Chunqin. Discrete-continuous model of selection on commuters′ travel mode and trip timings[J]. Journal of Systems & Management, 2017,26(6):1131-1135,1142. (in Chinese)
[6] 李纲,成德衡,彭程.出行区域对通勤者出行选择行为模型的影响[J].大连交通大学学报,2018,39(6):106-111. LI Gang, CHENG Deheng, PENG Cheng. Impact of trip regions on commuter choice behavior model[J]. Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University, 2018,39(6):106-111. (in Chinese)
[7] 翁剑成,涂强,林鹏飞,等.票价调整对公交出行者出行选择的影响分析[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2017,41(3):419-424,429. WENG Jiancheng, TU Qiang, LIN Pengfei, et al. Impact analysis of public transport price adjustment on travel choice for travelers [J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology (Transportation Science & Engineering), 2017,41(3):419-424,429. (in Chinese)
[8] ANDREW A C, CHRISTOPHER R C, MEGAN S R, et al. Factors influencing the choice of shared and shared electric bikes in Beijing[J]. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2016(67):399-414.
[9] LI W B, KAMARGIANNI M. Providing quantified evidence to policy makers for promoting bike-sharing in heavily air-polluted cities: A mode choice mode and policy simulation for Taiyuan-China[J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2018(111):277-291.
[10] ARITRA Pal, YU Zhang. Free-floating bike sharing: Solving real-life large-scale static rebalancing problems[J]. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2017(80):92-116.
[11] 冉林娜,李枫.共享单车出行特性与出行行为分析[J].交通信息与安全,2017,35(6):93-100,114. RAN Linna, LI Feng. An analysis on characteristics and behaviors of traveling by bike-sharing[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2017,35(6):93-100,114. (in Chinese)
[12] 袁鹏伟,董晓庆,翟怀远,等.基于Nested Logit模型的共享单车选择行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2018,18(5):191-196,210. YUAN Pengwei, DONG Xiaoqing, ZHAI Huaiyuan, et al. Choice behavior of bike-sharing based on nested logit model[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2018,18(5):191-196,210. (in Chinese)
[13] 魏宗财,莫海彤,刘玉亭.面向智慧城市的共享单车出行时空间特征研究:以广州天河中心区为例[J].科技导报,2018,36(18):71-80. WEI Zongcai, MO Haitong, LIU Yuting. Spatiotemporal characteristics of bike-sharing: An empirical study of Tianhe District, Guangzhou[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2018,36(18):71-80. (in Chinese)
[14] 宋永朝,杨培.基于多源数据的通勤高峰期出行方式分担率预测方法研究[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2018,37(5):84-91. SONG Y C, YANG P. Prediction method of travel mode share rate in commuting peak period based on multi-source date[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University (Natural Science), 2018,37(5):84-91. (in Chinese)
[15] 唐立,邹彤,罗霞,等.基于混合logit模型的网约车选择行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2018,18(1):108-114. TANG Li, ZHOU Tong, LUO Xia, et al. Choice behavior of taxi-hailing based on mixed-logit model[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2018,18(1):108-114. (in Chinese)
[16] 栾鑫,邓卫,程琳,等.特大城市居民出行方式选择行为的混合logit模型[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2018,48(4):1029-1036. LUAN Xin, DENG Wei, CHENG Lin, CHEN Xinyuan. Mixed logit mode for understanding travel mode choice behavior of megalopolitan residents[J]. Journal of Jinlin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2018,48(4):1029-1036. (in Chinese)
[17] 关金平,杨东援.离散选择高阶段Logit模型的建模与预测:以上海城市外围大型居住社区为例[J].计算机工程与应用,2015,51(13):1-8. GUAN Jinping, YANG Dongyuan. Advanced discrete choice logit models and estimation and forecast: case in large scale residential area on shanghai city periphery[J]. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2015,51(13):1-8. (in Chinese)
[18] KHANDKER N H, MANN J, MOHAMED M, et al. Synopsis of bicycle demand in the City of Toronto: Investigating the effects of perception, consciousness and comfortability on the purpose of biking and bike ownership[J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2014(70):67-80.
[19] 尹超英,邵春福,王晓全.考虑停车可用性的建成环境对小汽车通勤出行的影响[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2018,41(1):31-37. YIN Chaoyin, SHAO Chunfu, WANG Xiaoquan. Influence of urban built environment on car commuting considering parking availability[J]. Journal of University (Engineering and Technology Edition), 2018,41(1):31-37. (in Chinese)
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