基于函数赋值模型与模糊综合评判法的单沟泥石流危险性评价
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摘要
基于彭阳县丁家渠泥石流前期调查测绘,查明了泥石流的发育特征,分析了泥石流的形成条件,并对其易发程度进行打分综合评判,得出:该泥石流为沟谷降雨诱发型泥石流,易发程度为中等易发,目前正处于衰退期。构建了包括泥石流规模、发生频率、沟谷流域面积、主沟长度、流域相对高差、流域切割密度及不稳定沟床比例等7个指标的单沟泥石流危险度评价指标体系,采用关联度分析与层次分析法相结合的最优组合赋权法对函数赋值模型中的权重进行修正,并运用该模型对丁家渠泥石流进行危险度计算,为了验证该模型在研究区泥石流危险度评价的准确性,同时采用模糊综合评判法进行危险度计算,两种方法得出的危险度等级均为低度危险,与实地调查结果相符。
Based on investigation and mapping of Dingjiaqu debris flow in Pengyang County,this paper discussed its development characteristics and formation conditions,judged the probable occurrence level.We reached the conclusion that this debris flow is a precipitation-induced gully debris flow,the probable occurrence level is moderate and currently in a recession stage.We constructed a single gully debris flow hazard assessment index system,including scale of debris flow,occurrence frequency,gully basin area,the length of main gully,relative height difference,cutting density,and unstable gully bed ratio.The weight of the function assignment model was modified by the optimal combination weight method combined with the correlation analysis and the analytic hierarchy process,and was used to calculate the risk degree of Dingjiaqu debris flow.In order to verify the accuracy of the modified function assignment model,this paper used fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the risk degree too,and the results are the same.The risk level is low degree,which is consistent with the field survey results.
Based on investigation and mapping of Dingjiaqu debris flow in Pengyang County,this paper discussed its development characteristics and formation conditions,judged the probable occurrence level.We reached the conclusion that this debris flow is a precipitation-induced gully debris flow,the probable occurrence level is moderate and currently in a recession stage.We constructed a single gully debris flow hazard assessment index system,including scale of debris flow,occurrence frequency,gully basin area,the length of main gully,relative height difference,cutting density,and unstable gully bed ratio.The weight of the function assignment model was modified by the optimal combination weight method combined with the correlation analysis and the analytic hierarchy process,and was used to calculate the risk degree of Dingjiaqu debris flow.In order to verify the accuracy of the modified function assignment model,this paper used fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the risk degree too,and the results are the same.The risk level is low degree,which is consistent with the field survey results.
引文
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[8]郭万铭,焦金鱼.基于模糊综合评判法分析的岷县洮河流域单沟泥石流危险性评价[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2010,21(2):15-18.GUO Wanming,JIAO Jinyu. Hazard assessment ofsingle gully debris flows in the Taohe river valley ofMin county based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluationmethod[J]. Journal of Geological Hazards andEnvironment Preservation,2010,21(2):15-18.
[9]王常明,田书文,王翊虹,等.泥石流危险性评价:模糊c均值聚类-支持向量机法[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2016,46(4):1168-1175.WANG Changming,TIAN Shuwen,WANG Yihong,et al. Risk assessment of debris flow:a method ofSVM based on FCM[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth science edition),2016,46(4):1168-1175.
[10]杨小凤,朱军,曹云刚,等.基于不同方法的泥石流危险性评价对比分析———以四川汶川七盘沟泥石流为例[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2017,28(1):22-29.YANG Xiaofeng,ZHU Jun,CAO Yungang,et al.Risk assessment of Qipangou debris flow based ondetermining weight method and effectiveness analysis[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard andControl,2017,28(1):22-29.
[11]田丰,张军,冉有华,等.甘肃陇南市泥石流灾害危险性及影响因子评价[J].灾害学,2017,32(3):197-203.TIAN Feng, ZHANG Jun, RAN Youhua, et al.Assessment of debris flow disaster hazard andinfluence factors in Longnan district[J]. Journal ofCatastrophology,2017,32(3):197-203.
[12]王家柱,任光明,余天斌,等.四川芦山震区大叶龙沟泥石流发育特征及危险度评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2015,26(4):1-5.WANG Jiazhu,REN Guangming,YU Tianbin,et al.Development characteristics and risk assessment of DaYelong ditch’s debris flow in Sichuan Lushanmeizoseismal area[J]. The Chinese Journal ofGeological Hazard and Control,2015,26(4):1-5.
[13]马鹏辉,彭建兵,朱兴华,等.陕西蓝田铜鹅沟泥石流发育特征及危险性分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2017,28(1):75-81.MA Penghui,PEGN Jianbing,ZHU Xinghua,et al.Characteristics and risk analysis of debris flow inTonge gully in Lantian County,Shaanxi Province[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard andControl,2017,28(1):75-81.
[14]张黎,倪万魁,张钦,等.宁夏彭阳县地质灾害[M].银川:宁夏人民出版社,2010:1-4.ZHANG Li, NI Wankui, ZHANG Qin, et al.Geological hazards in Pengyang, Ningxia[M].Yinchuan:Ningxia People’s Publishing House,2010:1-4.
[2]刘希林,唐川.泥石流危险性评价[M].北京:科学出版社,1995:1-3.LIU Xilin, TANG Chuan. Debris flow hazardassessment[M]. Beijing:Science Press,1995:1-3.
[3]刘希林.泥石流危险度判定的研究[J].灾害学,1988(3):12-17.LIU Xilin. Research on judging for the debris flowhazard[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,1988(3):12-17.
[4]谭炳炎.泥石流沟严重程度的数量化综合评判[J].水土保持通报,1986,6(1):51-57.TAN Bingyan. Quantitative comprehension evaluationof debris flow severity[J]. Bulletin of Soil and WaterConservation,1986,6(1):51-57.
[5]张怀珍,范建荣,郭芬芬,等.中国单沟泥石流危险度评价模型比较研究[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(4):20-26.ZHANG Huaizhen,FAN Jianrong,GUO Fenfen,etal. The comparison of single debris flow riskassessment models in China[J]. Research of Soil andWater Conservation,2011,18(4):20-26.
[6] LIU X L. Assessment on the severity of debris flows inmountainous creeks of southwestern China[C]//Proceedings of International Symposium ofInterpraevent. Garmisch-Partenkirenchen,1996(4):145-154.
[7]刘厚成,谷秀芝.基于可拓层次分析法的泥石流危险性评价研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2010,21(3):61-66.LIU Houcheng, GU Xiuzhi. Hazard assessment ofdebris flow along highway based on extension AHP[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard andControl,2010,21(3):61-66.
[8]郭万铭,焦金鱼.基于模糊综合评判法分析的岷县洮河流域单沟泥石流危险性评价[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2010,21(2):15-18.GUO Wanming,JIAO Jinyu. Hazard assessment ofsingle gully debris flows in the Taohe river valley ofMin county based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluationmethod[J]. Journal of Geological Hazards andEnvironment Preservation,2010,21(2):15-18.
[9]王常明,田书文,王翊虹,等.泥石流危险性评价:模糊c均值聚类-支持向量机法[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2016,46(4):1168-1175.WANG Changming,TIAN Shuwen,WANG Yihong,et al. Risk assessment of debris flow:a method ofSVM based on FCM[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth science edition),2016,46(4):1168-1175.
[10]杨小凤,朱军,曹云刚,等.基于不同方法的泥石流危险性评价对比分析———以四川汶川七盘沟泥石流为例[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2017,28(1):22-29.YANG Xiaofeng,ZHU Jun,CAO Yungang,et al.Risk assessment of Qipangou debris flow based ondetermining weight method and effectiveness analysis[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard andControl,2017,28(1):22-29.
[11]田丰,张军,冉有华,等.甘肃陇南市泥石流灾害危险性及影响因子评价[J].灾害学,2017,32(3):197-203.TIAN Feng, ZHANG Jun, RAN Youhua, et al.Assessment of debris flow disaster hazard andinfluence factors in Longnan district[J]. Journal ofCatastrophology,2017,32(3):197-203.
[12]王家柱,任光明,余天斌,等.四川芦山震区大叶龙沟泥石流发育特征及危险度评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2015,26(4):1-5.WANG Jiazhu,REN Guangming,YU Tianbin,et al.Development characteristics and risk assessment of DaYelong ditch’s debris flow in Sichuan Lushanmeizoseismal area[J]. The Chinese Journal ofGeological Hazard and Control,2015,26(4):1-5.
[13]马鹏辉,彭建兵,朱兴华,等.陕西蓝田铜鹅沟泥石流发育特征及危险性分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2017,28(1):75-81.MA Penghui,PEGN Jianbing,ZHU Xinghua,et al.Characteristics and risk analysis of debris flow inTonge gully in Lantian County,Shaanxi Province[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard andControl,2017,28(1):75-81.
[14]张黎,倪万魁,张钦,等.宁夏彭阳县地质灾害[M].银川:宁夏人民出版社,2010:1-4.ZHANG Li, NI Wankui, ZHANG Qin, et al.Geological hazards in Pengyang, Ningxia[M].Yinchuan:Ningxia People’s Publishing House,2010:1-4.