应急条件下区域路网行程时间可靠性研究
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摘要
为了研究应急条件下的区域路网可靠性,建立绍兴市区域路网Vissim仿真模型并进行校准。提出基于交通仿真和蒙特卡洛方法的应急条件下路段行程时间计算模型并结合实测与仿真数据对模型进行修正,并分析路网拓扑空间关系依次建立应急条件下路径、OD对、路网行程时间可靠性模型。量化分级行程时间可靠性,对绍兴市典型路段和典型区域进行仿真与评价分析。研究结果表明,路网行程时间可靠性随应急事件的降低而降低,当越城区和诸暨市应急事件等级由正常降至一级,路网行程时间可靠性由0.519和0.534降低至0.201和0.173。同等应急条件对同一地区不同区域路网存在差异性影响,同等应急条件下诸暨市的路网行程时间可靠性下降比相对于越城区高4.5%～9.9%,主要由于其自由式路网交通疏散能力较差且非城区交通管理水平较低。
To study reliability of regional road network under emergency conditions, a Vissim simulation model of a regional road network in Shaoxing is developed and calibrated. A model to calculate travel time of links under emergency conditions based on simulations and Monte Carlo method is proposed, and modified with actual and simulated data. Topologic analyze of the road network is used to establish reliability models of travel path, OD pair, and road network under emergency conditions. Typical links and typical regions of Shaoxing are simulated and evaluated by quantifying and grading travel time reliability. The results show that the travel time reliability of road network decreases with the decrease of emergency level. When emergency level of Yuecheng Distract and Zhuji City decreases from normal to first grade, the travel time reliability of road network reduces from 0.519 and 0.534 to 0.201 and 0.173, respectively. The same emergency conditions have different influences at different regional road network. The reduction ratio of travel time reliability of road network at Zhuji City is 4.5%-9.9% higher than Yuecheng District under the same emergency conditions, which is mainly resulted from the weak road network evacuation capability and poor traffic management of Zhuji City.To study reliability of regional road network under emergency conditions, a Vissim simulation model of a regional road network in Shaoxing is developed and calibrated. A model to calculate travel time of links under emergency conditions based on simulations and Monte Carlo method is proposed, and modified with actual and simulated data. Topologic analyze of the road network is used to establish reliability models of travel path, OD pair, and road network under emergency conditions. Typical links and typical regions of Shaoxing are simulated and evaluated by quantifying and grading travel time reliability. The results show that the travel time reliability of road network decreases with the decrease of emergency level. When emergency level of Yuecheng Distract and Zhuji City decreases from normal to first grade, the travel time reliability of road network reduces from 0.519 and 0.534 to 0.201 and 0.173, respectively. The same emergency conditions have different influences at different regional road network. The reduction ratio of travel time reliability of road network at Zhuji City is 4.5%-9.9% higher than Yuecheng District under the same emergency conditions, which is mainly resulted from the weak road network evacuation capability and poor traffic management of Zhuji City.
To study reliability of regional road network under emergency conditions, a Vissim simulation model of a regional road network in Shaoxing is developed and calibrated. A model to calculate travel time of links under emergency conditions based on simulations and Monte Carlo method is proposed, and modified with actual and simulated data. Topologic analyze of the road network is used to establish reliability models of travel path, OD pair, and road network under emergency conditions. Typical links and typical regions of Shaoxing are simulated and evaluated by quantifying and grading travel time reliability. The results show that the travel time reliability of road network decreases with the decrease of emergency level. When emergency level of Yuecheng Distract and Zhuji City decreases from normal to first grade, the travel time reliability of road network reduces from 0.519 and 0.534 to 0.201 and 0.173, respectively. The same emergency conditions have different influences at different regional road network. The reduction ratio of travel time reliability of road network at Zhuji City is 4.5%-9.9% higher than Yuecheng District under the same emergency conditions, which is mainly resulted from the weak road network evacuation capability and poor traffic management of Zhuji City.To study reliability of regional road network under emergency conditions, a Vissim simulation model of a regional road network in Shaoxing is developed and calibrated. A model to calculate travel time of links under emergency conditions based on simulations and Monte Carlo method is proposed, and modified with actual and simulated data. Topologic analyze of the road network is used to establish reliability models of travel path, OD pair, and road network under emergency conditions. Typical links and typical regions of Shaoxing are simulated and evaluated by quantifying and grading travel time reliability. The results show that the travel time reliability of road network decreases with the decrease of emergency level. When emergency level of Yuecheng Distract and Zhuji City decreases from normal to first grade, the travel time reliability of road network reduces from 0.519 and 0.534 to 0.201 and 0.173, respectively. The same emergency conditions have different influences at different regional road network. The reduction ratio of travel time reliability of road network at Zhuji City is 4.5%-9.9% higher than Yuecheng District under the same emergency conditions, which is mainly resulted from the weak road network evacuation capability and poor traffic management of Zhuji City.
引文
[1] 任楠.紧急事件下区域路网行程时间可靠性模型及仿真评价方法研究[D].西安:长安大学,2016.REN Nan.The research of regional road network travel time reliability model and the simulation evaluation method in emergency[D].Xi′an:Chang′an University,2016.(in Chinese)
[2] KNOOP V L.Road incidents and network dynamics:Effects on driving behaviour and traffic congestion[D].Delft,Netherlands:TRAIL Research School,2009.
[3] ASAKURA Y,Reliability measures of an origin and destination pair in a deteriorated road network with variable flows[C].Transportation Networks:Recent Methodological Advances.Selected Proceedings of the 4th EURO Transportation Meeting,Newcastle,England:EURO,1999.
[4] BELL M,LIDA Y.Transportation network analysis[M].New York:Wiley,1997.
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[6] CLARK S,WATLING D.Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2005,39(2):119-140.
[7] 董可然,朱自博,封春房,等.考虑拥堵关联的城市主干道运行可靠性建模[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2018,42(5):862-867.DONG Keran,ZHU Zibo,FENG Chunfang,et al.Reliability modeling of urban arterials considering congestion correlation[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Transportation Science & Engineering),2018,42(5):862-867.(in Chinese)
[8] IIDA Y,KURAUCHI F,SHIMADA H.Traffic management system against major earthquakes[J].Iatss Research,2000,24(2):6-17.
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[10] LAM W H K,SHAO H,SUMALEE A.Modeling impacts of adverse weather conditions on a road network with uncertainties in demand and supply[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2008,42(10):890-910.
[11] WAKABAYASHI H.Snowfall weather forecast and expressway network reliability assessment[R].Reliability of Transport Networks,Hertfordshire:RSP Ltd.,2000.
[12] 张长春,牛学勤.基于正交试验法的交叉口VISSIM模型参数标定[J].交通科技,2011(2):110-113.ZHANG Changchun,NIU Xueqin.Parameter calibration of intersection VISSIM model based on orthogonal test method[J].Transportation Science & Technolog,2011(2):110-113.(in Chinese)
[13] 于泉,王萌,邓小惠.基于正交试验法的单个信号交叉口仿真参数标定[J].公路交通科技,2012,29(增刊1):57-63.YU Quan,WANG Meng,DENG Xiaohui.Simulation parameter calibration of single signalized intersection based on orthogonal experiment method[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2012(S1):57-63.(in Chinese)
[14] 李志明,闫小勇.基于遗传算法的交通仿真模型参数校正方法研究[J].交通标准化,2006(4):21-23.LI Zhiming,YAN Xiaoyong.Study on correction method of traffic simulation model based on genetic algorithm[J].Transportation Standardization,2006(4):21-23.(in Chinese)
[15] 李振龙,王保菊,金雪,等.针对主辅路的Vissim仿真模型参数标定方法[J].交通信息与安全,2015,33(2):45-50.LI Zhenlong,WANG Baoju,JIN Xue,et al.Parameter calibration of vissim simulation models with a focus on main and side roads[J].Journal of Transport Information and Safety,2015,33(2):45-50.(in Chinese)
[16] 章玉,于雷,赵娜乐,等.SPSA算法在微观交通仿真模型VISSIM参数标定中的应用[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2010,10(4):44-49.ZHANG Yu,YU Lei,ZHAO Nale,et al.Application of simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation algorithm in parameter calibration of VISSIM microscope simulation model[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2010,10(4):44-49.(in Chinese)
[17] 韩国华,傅白白.基于PSO算法的微观交通仿真模型参数标定[J].山东建筑大学学报,2012,27(3):272-275.HAN Guohua,FU Baibai.Study on parameter calibration of microscopic traffic simulation model based on PSO algorithm[J].Journal of Shandong Jianzhu University,2012,27(3):272-275.(in Chinese)
[18] 王长君,方守恩.高速公路网应急交通组织技术[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2011.WANG Changjun,FANG Shouen.Expressway network emergency traffic organization technology[M].Shanghai:Tongji University Press,2011.(in Chinese)
[19] 冷军强.冰雪条件下城市路网行程时间可靠性研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2010.LENG Junqiang.Travel time reliability of urban road network under ice and snowfall conditions[D].Harbin :Harbin Institute of Technology.2010.(in Chinese)
[2] KNOOP V L.Road incidents and network dynamics:Effects on driving behaviour and traffic congestion[D].Delft,Netherlands:TRAIL Research School,2009.
[3] ASAKURA Y,Reliability measures of an origin and destination pair in a deteriorated road network with variable flows[C].Transportation Networks:Recent Methodological Advances.Selected Proceedings of the 4th EURO Transportation Meeting,Newcastle,England:EURO,1999.
[4] BELL M,LIDA Y.Transportation network analysis[M].New York:Wiley,1997.
[5] BELL M,CASSIR C,IIDA Y,et al.A sensitivity based approach to network reliability assessment [C].14th International Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory,Jerusalem,Israel:ISTTT,1999.
[6] CLARK S,WATLING D.Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2005,39(2):119-140.
[7] 董可然,朱自博,封春房,等.考虑拥堵关联的城市主干道运行可靠性建模[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2018,42(5):862-867.DONG Keran,ZHU Zibo,FENG Chunfang,et al.Reliability modeling of urban arterials considering congestion correlation[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Transportation Science & Engineering),2018,42(5):862-867.(in Chinese)
[8] IIDA Y,KURAUCHI F,SHIMADA H.Traffic management system against major earthquakes[J].Iatss Research,2000,24(2):6-17.
[9] SHAO H,LAM W H K,TAM M L,et al.Modelling rain effects on risk-taking behaviours of multi-user classes in road networks with uncertainty[J].Journal of Advanced Transportation,2008,42(3):265-290.
[10] LAM W H K,SHAO H,SUMALEE A.Modeling impacts of adverse weather conditions on a road network with uncertainties in demand and supply[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2008,42(10):890-910.
[11] WAKABAYASHI H.Snowfall weather forecast and expressway network reliability assessment[R].Reliability of Transport Networks,Hertfordshire:RSP Ltd.,2000.
[12] 张长春,牛学勤.基于正交试验法的交叉口VISSIM模型参数标定[J].交通科技,2011(2):110-113.ZHANG Changchun,NIU Xueqin.Parameter calibration of intersection VISSIM model based on orthogonal test method[J].Transportation Science & Technolog,2011(2):110-113.(in Chinese)
[13] 于泉,王萌,邓小惠.基于正交试验法的单个信号交叉口仿真参数标定[J].公路交通科技,2012,29(增刊1):57-63.YU Quan,WANG Meng,DENG Xiaohui.Simulation parameter calibration of single signalized intersection based on orthogonal experiment method[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2012(S1):57-63.(in Chinese)
[14] 李志明,闫小勇.基于遗传算法的交通仿真模型参数校正方法研究[J].交通标准化,2006(4):21-23.LI Zhiming,YAN Xiaoyong.Study on correction method of traffic simulation model based on genetic algorithm[J].Transportation Standardization,2006(4):21-23.(in Chinese)
[15] 李振龙,王保菊,金雪,等.针对主辅路的Vissim仿真模型参数标定方法[J].交通信息与安全,2015,33(2):45-50.LI Zhenlong,WANG Baoju,JIN Xue,et al.Parameter calibration of vissim simulation models with a focus on main and side roads[J].Journal of Transport Information and Safety,2015,33(2):45-50.(in Chinese)
[16] 章玉,于雷,赵娜乐,等.SPSA算法在微观交通仿真模型VISSIM参数标定中的应用[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2010,10(4):44-49.ZHANG Yu,YU Lei,ZHAO Nale,et al.Application of simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation algorithm in parameter calibration of VISSIM microscope simulation model[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2010,10(4):44-49.(in Chinese)
[17] 韩国华,傅白白.基于PSO算法的微观交通仿真模型参数标定[J].山东建筑大学学报,2012,27(3):272-275.HAN Guohua,FU Baibai.Study on parameter calibration of microscopic traffic simulation model based on PSO algorithm[J].Journal of Shandong Jianzhu University,2012,27(3):272-275.(in Chinese)
[18] 王长君,方守恩.高速公路网应急交通组织技术[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2011.WANG Changjun,FANG Shouen.Expressway network emergency traffic organization technology[M].Shanghai:Tongji University Press,2011.(in Chinese)
[19] 冷军强.冰雪条件下城市路网行程时间可靠性研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2010.LENG Junqiang.Travel time reliability of urban road network under ice and snowfall conditions[D].Harbin :Harbin Institute of Technology.2010.(in Chinese)