中国14个连片特困地区的森林转型及其解释
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摘要
利用MODIS土地覆盖数据,分析了2002-2013年中国14个连片特困地区森林转型的特点,探明了连片特困地区林地变化的趋势及其空间异质性。在此基础上,选择空间变量,建立线性回归模型探究林地面积变化的影响因素,得出连片特困地区森林转型所遵循的路径。结果表明,2002-2013年间,中国14个连片特困地区林地面积净增加106554.75 km2,增长率为11.93%,森林进入转型后期,即森林面积净增加阶段;秦巴山区、武陵山区、西藏地区东南部、四省藏区东部、燕山—太行山区东部是林地增长的热点区域,而林地增长冷点区域则主要分布在800 mm等降水量线以北的广大区域、大别山区和滇桂黔石漠化区东部;非农人口的增加以及林业工程的实施都对林地面积的增加有显著的促进作用,中国14个连片特困地区的森林转型主要遵循着经济发展路径和国家森林政策路径。在连片特困地区,应加快小城镇建设的步伐,同时依托其丰富的自然资源,因地制宜地发展乡村生态旅游业;国家森林政策方面,应将连片特困地区作为生态建设重点区域,切实保护中国的森林资源。
Since the beginning of the 20 th century, forest restoration, as the main theme of global forest development, has gradually replaced deforestation. It is of great significance to explore the transition path of China's forests, as China has abundant forest resources. Based on the MODIS land cover data, 14 contiguous destitute areas of China are chosen as study areas to analyze the characteristics of forest transition from 2002 to 2013. Using the method of cold/hot spot analysis, we investigate the forest change trend and its spatial heterogeneity. In addition,we explore factors affecting forest area change by a linear regression model and disclose the forest transition pathways in contiguous destitute areas. The results show that net forest area of the 14 contiguous destitute areas increases by 106554.75 km2, with a growth rate of 11.93%,which means that the forest transition may enter the last stage. The Qinling-Daba Mountains,Wuling Mountains, southeastern Tibet and the eastern part of Yanshan-Taihang Mountains are hot areas of forest area increase, while the cold areas of forest area increase are mainly distributed in the vast area north of the 800 mm isohyetal line, Dabie Mountains and the eastern part of Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi rocky desertification areas. Both the increase of nonagricultural population and the implementation of forestry projects play significant roles in promoting forest transition, thus forest transition of 14 contiguous destitute areas of China mainly follows the economic development pathway and the state forest policy pathway. Some policy implications are also put forward. The pace of construction of small towns in contiguous destitute areas should be speeded up to depopulate rural areas. At the same time, rural ecotourism should be developed on the basis of rich natural resources to help promote targeted measures in poverty alleviation. As for state forest policies, contiguous destitute areas should be regarded as the key areas for ecological construction so as to protect natural resources effectively.
Since the beginning of the 20 th century, forest restoration, as the main theme of global forest development, has gradually replaced deforestation. It is of great significance to explore the transition path of China's forests, as China has abundant forest resources. Based on the MODIS land cover data, 14 contiguous destitute areas of China are chosen as study areas to analyze the characteristics of forest transition from 2002 to 2013. Using the method of cold/hot spot analysis, we investigate the forest change trend and its spatial heterogeneity. In addition,we explore factors affecting forest area change by a linear regression model and disclose the forest transition pathways in contiguous destitute areas. The results show that net forest area of the 14 contiguous destitute areas increases by 106554.75 km2, with a growth rate of 11.93%,which means that the forest transition may enter the last stage. The Qinling-Daba Mountains,Wuling Mountains, southeastern Tibet and the eastern part of Yanshan-Taihang Mountains are hot areas of forest area increase, while the cold areas of forest area increase are mainly distributed in the vast area north of the 800 mm isohyetal line, Dabie Mountains and the eastern part of Yunnan-Guizhou-Guangxi rocky desertification areas. Both the increase of nonagricultural population and the implementation of forestry projects play significant roles in promoting forest transition, thus forest transition of 14 contiguous destitute areas of China mainly follows the economic development pathway and the state forest policy pathway. Some policy implications are also put forward. The pace of construction of small towns in contiguous destitute areas should be speeded up to depopulate rural areas. At the same time, rural ecotourism should be developed on the basis of rich natural resources to help promote targeted measures in poverty alleviation. As for state forest policies, contiguous destitute areas should be regarded as the key areas for ecological construction so as to protect natural resources effectively.
引文
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(1)数据来源《四川省统计年鉴》。
[2]Mather A S.The forest transition.Area,1992,24(4):367-379.
[3]Rudel T K,Coomes O T,Moran E,et al.Forest transitions:Towards a global understanding of land use change.Global Environmental Change,2005,15(1):23-31.
[4]Barbier E B,Tesfaw A.Explaining forest transitions:The role of governance.Ecological Economics,2015,119:252-261.
[5]Kauppi P E,Ausubel J H,Fang J,et al.Returning forests analyzed with the forest identity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA,2006,103(46):17574-17579.
[6]Lambin E F,Meyfroidt P.Land use transitions:Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change.Land Use Policy,2010,27(2):108-118.
[7]Mather A S,Needle C L.The forest transition:A theoretical basis.Area,1998,30(2):117-124.
[8]Foster D R.Land-use history as long-term broad scale disturbance:Regional forest dynamics in Central New England.Ecosystems,1998,1(1):96-119.
[9]Krausmann F.Forest transition in Austria:A socio-ecological approach.Mitteilungen Der Osterreichischen Geographischen Gesellschaft,2006,148(1):75-91.
[10]Marey Pérez M F,Rodríguez Vicente V.Forest transition in northern Spain:Local responses on large-scale programmes of field-afforestation.Land Use Policy,2009,26(1):139-156.
[11]Bekele A,Hudnall W H.Spatial variability of soil chemical properties of a prairie-forest transition in Louisiana.Plant and Soil,2006,280:7-21.
[12]Evans T P,Kelley H.Assessing the transition from deforestation to forest regrowth with an agent-based model of land cover change for south-central Indiana(USA).Geoforum,2008,39(2):819-832.
[13]Bae J S,Joo R W,Kim Y.Forest transition in South Korea:Reality,path and drivers.Land Use Policy,2012,29(1):198-207.
[14]Meyfroidt P,Lambin E F.Forest transition in Vietnam and its environmental impacts.Global Change Biology,2008,14(6):1319-1336.
[15]Skole D L.Secondary forest expansion in the Brazilian Amazon and the refinement of forest transition theory.Society&Natural Resources,2003,16(4):277-294.
[16]Farley K A.Grasslands to tree plantations:Forest transition in the Andes of Ecuador.Annals of the Association of American Geographers,2007,97(4):755-771.
[17]Izquierdo A E,Angelo C D D,Aide T M.Thirty years of human demography and land-use change in the Atlantic Forest of Misiones,Argentina:An evaluation of the forest transition model.Ecology&Society,2008,13(2):582-592.
[18]Mather A S.Recent Asian forest transitions in relation to forest transition theory.International Forestry Review,2007,9(1):491-502.
[19]Li L,Liu J,Long H,et al.Economic globalization,trade and forest transition:The case of nine Asian countries.Forest Policy&Economics,2017,76(3):7-13.
[20]Shi Z,Li L,Yin W,et al.Use of multi-temporal Landsat images for analyzing forest transition in relation to socioeconomic factors and the environment.International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,2011,13(3):468-476.
[21]Ashraf J,Pandey R,de Jong W.Assessment of bio-physical,social and economic drivers for forest transition in AsiaPacific region.Forest Policy and Economics,2017,76:35-44.
[22]Zinda J A,Trac C J,Zhai D,et al.Dual-function forests in the returning farmland to forest program and the flexibility of environmental policy in China.Geoforum,2016,78:119-132.
[23]Zhang Z,Zinda J A,Li W.Forest transitions in Chinese villages:Explaining community-level variation under the returning forest to farmland program.Land Use Policy,2017,64(4):245-257.
[24]He J.Governing forest restoration:Local case studies of sloping land conversion program in Southwest China.Forest Policy and Economics,2014,46:30-38.
[25]Tian Yujun,Li Xiubin,Ma Guoxia,et al.Influences of labor emigration from agriculture on the production abandonment of cultivated land in ecological sensitive areas.China Land Sciences,2010,24(7):4-9.[田玉军,李秀彬,马国霞,等.劳动力析出对生态脆弱区耕地撂荒的影响.中国土地科学,2010,24(7):4-9.]
[26]Li Zanhong,Yan Janzhong,Hua Xiaobo,et al.Factors influencing the cultivated land abandonment of house-holds of different types:A case study of 12 typical villages in Chongqing Municipality.Geographical Research,2014,33(4):721-734.[李赞红,阎建忠,花晓波,等.不同类型农户撂荒及其影响因素研究:以重庆市12个典型村为例.地理研究,2014,33(4):721-734.]
[27]Han Jun,Wang Daolong,Bi Yuyun,et al.Trend analysis of energy consumption structure of rural household in Tancheng County.Journal of Beijing University of Agriculture,2013,28(4):47-51.[韩昀,王道龙,毕于运,等.农村家庭用能消费结构变化趋势研究:山东省郯城县实证分析.北京农学院学报,2013,28(4):47-51.]
[28]Yu D Y,Shi P J,Han G Y,et al.Forest ecosystem restoration due to a national conservation plan in China.Ecological Engineering,2011,37(9):1387-1397.
[29]He Weifeng,Yan Janzhong,Zhou Hong,et al.The micro-mechanism of forest transition:A case study in the mountainous areas of Chongqing.Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(1):102-113.[何威风,阎建忠,周洪,等.森林转型的微观机制:以重庆市山区为例.自然资源学报,2016,31(1):102-113.]
[30]Zhang K,Song C,Zhang Y,et al.Natural disasters and economic development drive forest dynamics and transition in China.Forest Policy and Economics,2017,76:56-64.
[31]Gu Zhongyang.Contiguous destitute areas become the main attack area(policy interpretation).People's Daily,2011-12-07.(2).[顾仲阳.集中连片特困地区成为主攻区(政策解读).人民日报,2011-12-07.(2).]
[32]Li Guozhu,Niu Shuwen,Yang Zhen,et al.The analysis on environmental and economic cost of rural household energy consumption in loess hilly region of Gansu province.Journal of Natural Resources,2008,23(1):15-24.[李国柱,牛叔文,杨振,等.陇中黄土丘陵地区农村生活能源消费的环境经济成本分析.自然资源学报,2008,23(1):15-24.]
[33]Liang Yutian,Fan Jie,Sun Wei,et al.The influencing factors of rural household energy consumption structure in mountainous areas of Southwest China:A case study of Zhaotong City of Yunnan Province.Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(2):221-229.[梁育填,樊杰,孙威,等.西南山区农村生活能源消费结构的影响因素分析:以云南省昭通市为例.地理学报,2012,67(2):221-229.]
[34]Liu Xianfeng,Pan Yaohui,Zhu Xiufang,et al.Spatiotemporal variation of vegetation coverage in Qinling-Daba Mountains in relation to environmental factors.Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(5):705-716.[刘宪锋,潘耀忠,朱秀芳,等.2000-2014年秦巴山区植被覆盖时空变化特征及其归因.地理学报,2015,70(5):705-716.]
[35]Liu Xianfeng,Ren Zhiyuank,Lin Zhihui,et al.The spatial-temporal changes of vegetation coverage in the Three-River Headwater Region in recent 12 years.Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(7):897-908.[刘宪锋,任志远,林志慧,等.2000-2011年三江源区植被覆盖时空变化特征.地理学报,2013,68(7):897-908.]
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(1)数据来源《四川省统计年鉴》。