中国省际炼化产业产能过剩测度及影响因素分析
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摘要
近年来中国炼化产业投资冲动攀升,炼化产业产能过剩问题突出,为了及时防治产能过剩风险、减少产能过剩带来的损失,本文采用CES生产函数法、利用2001～2016年炼化产业数据对中国各地区炼化产业产能利用率进行测度,对影响产能过剩的影响因素进行分析,并提出针对性的政策建议。研究结果显示,中国炼化产业整体过剩,经济周期波动、市场需求和企业规模对炼化产业产能利用率有正向影响作用,政府干预对炼化产业产能利用率有负向影响作用;炼化产业产能过剩分布不均衡,中部地区产能利用率水平整体较高,过剩并不明显,东部和西部地区产能过剩比较严重;东部地区产能过剩主要受经济波动和政府干预作用的影响,西部地区产能过剩主要受市场需求不足、企业规模化程度低等因素的影响。
In recent years,the impulse of investment in China's refining and petrochemical industry has risen,and the problem of overcapacity in the refining and petrochemical industry has become prominent. To prevent and control the risk of overcapacity and reduce the loss caused by overcapacity in a timely manner,this paper uses the CES production function method and uses the 2001 ～ 2016 refining and petrochemical industrial data to measure the capacity utilization rate of the refining and petrochemical industries in various regions of China,analyze the influencing factors that affect the overcapacity,and propose targeted policy recommendations. The results of the study show that China's refining and petrochemical industry as a whole overcapacity,economic cycle fluctuations,market demand and business size have a positive impact on the capacity utilization rate of the refining industry,and government intervention has a negative impact on the capacity utilization rate of the refining and petrochemical industry; the overcapacity distribution is uneven. The overall capacity utilization rate in the central region is relatively high,the surplus is not obvious. The overcapacity in the eastern and western regions is relatively serious. The overcapacity in the eastern region is mainly affected by economic fluctuations and government intervention and the overcapacity in the western region. It is mainly affected by the lack of market demand and the low degree of scale of the company.
In recent years,the impulse of investment in China's refining and petrochemical industry has risen,and the problem of overcapacity in the refining and petrochemical industry has become prominent. To prevent and control the risk of overcapacity and reduce the loss caused by overcapacity in a timely manner,this paper uses the CES production function method and uses the 2001 ～ 2016 refining and petrochemical industrial data to measure the capacity utilization rate of the refining and petrochemical industries in various regions of China,analyze the influencing factors that affect the overcapacity,and propose targeted policy recommendations. The results of the study show that China's refining and petrochemical industry as a whole overcapacity,economic cycle fluctuations,market demand and business size have a positive impact on the capacity utilization rate of the refining industry,and government intervention has a negative impact on the capacity utilization rate of the refining and petrochemical industry; the overcapacity distribution is uneven. The overall capacity utilization rate in the central region is relatively high,the surplus is not obvious. The overcapacity in the eastern and western regions is relatively serious. The overcapacity in the eastern region is mainly affected by economic fluctuations and government intervention and the overcapacity in the western region. It is mainly affected by the lack of market demand and the low degree of scale of the company.
引文
[1]中国金融四十人论坛课题组,纪志宏,纪敏,等.产能过剩的衡量与原因分析——一个文献综述[J].新金融评论,2017,(1):73~95.
[2]中国石油和化学工业联合会. 2016年度石化行业产能预警报告[J].化工管理,2016,(13):29~32.
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[6]毛培,刘沛罡,赵金龙.后危机时期的中国工业部门产能过剩测度——基于数据包络分析法[J].工业技术经济,2017,(11):96~103.
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[9]孙巍,何彬,武治国.现阶段工业产能过剩“窖藏效应”的数理分析及其实证检验[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2008,(1):68~75.
[10]林毅夫,巫和懋,邢亦青.“潮涌现象”与产能过剩的形成机制[J].经济研究,2010,(10):4~19.
[11]王文甫,明娟,岳超云.企业规模、地方政府干预与产能过剩[J].管理世界,2014,(10):17~36.
[12]程俊杰.中国转型时期产业政策与产能过剩——基于制造业面板数据的实证研究[J].财经研究,2015,(8):131~144.
[13]江飞涛,耿强,吕大国,等.地区竞争、体制扭曲与产能过剩的形成机理[J].中国工业经济,2012,(6):44~56.
[14]步丹璐,石翔燕,狄灵瑜.晋升压力、资本市场效率与产能过剩[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2017,(1):8~18.
[15] Berndt E R,Morrison C J. Capacity Utilization Measures:Underlying Economic Theory and an Alternative Approach[J]. American Economic Review,1981,71(2):48~52.
[16]林坚. 2000年以来人口城镇化水平变动省际差异分析——基于统计数据的校正和修补[J].城市规划,2010,(3):48~56.
[2]中国石油和化学工业联合会. 2016年度石化行业产能预警报告[J].化工管理,2016,(13):29~32.
[3]韩国高,高铁梅,王立国,等.中国制造业产能过剩的测度、波动及成因研究[J].经济研究,2011,(12):18~31.
[4] Shaikh A M,Moudud J K. Working Paper No. 415 Measuring Capacity Utilization in OECD Countries:A Cointegration Method by[R]. Economics Working Paper Archive,2004:1~19.
[5]程俊杰.转型时期中国产能过剩测度及成因的地区差异[J].经济学家,2015,(3):74~83.
[6]毛培,刘沛罡,赵金龙.后危机时期的中国工业部门产能过剩测度——基于数据包络分析法[J].工业技术经济,2017,(11):96~103.
[7] Zhang Y,Nie R,Shi R,et al. Measuring the Capacity Utilization of the Coal Sector and Its Decoupling with Economic Growth in China's Supply-side Reform[J]. Resources Conservation&Recycling,2016:314~325.
[8]杨立勋,刘宇宇.中国地区工业产能利用率测度及其影响因素再研究[J].经济体制改革,2017,(4):56~63.
[9]孙巍,何彬,武治国.现阶段工业产能过剩“窖藏效应”的数理分析及其实证检验[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2008,(1):68~75.
[10]林毅夫,巫和懋,邢亦青.“潮涌现象”与产能过剩的形成机制[J].经济研究,2010,(10):4~19.
[11]王文甫,明娟,岳超云.企业规模、地方政府干预与产能过剩[J].管理世界,2014,(10):17~36.
[12]程俊杰.中国转型时期产业政策与产能过剩——基于制造业面板数据的实证研究[J].财经研究,2015,(8):131~144.
[13]江飞涛,耿强,吕大国,等.地区竞争、体制扭曲与产能过剩的形成机理[J].中国工业经济,2012,(6):44~56.
[14]步丹璐,石翔燕,狄灵瑜.晋升压力、资本市场效率与产能过剩[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2017,(1):8~18.
[15] Berndt E R,Morrison C J. Capacity Utilization Measures:Underlying Economic Theory and an Alternative Approach[J]. American Economic Review,1981,71(2):48~52.
[16]林坚. 2000年以来人口城镇化水平变动省际差异分析——基于统计数据的校正和修补[J].城市规划,2010,(3):48~56.
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