城市体系演变规律及其影响因素研究——基于云南省州市面板数据的实证分析
|
摘要
区域协调发展是区域经济研究的重要内容,优化城市体系是推进区域协调发展的重要途径。运用齐普夫模型考察云南省城市体系演变规律,研究发现,云南省城市体系在2008—2017年呈现聚集发展趋势、城市体系分布帕累托系数逐年下降,说明省域经济发展差异逐渐扩大,因此,在新时代推动云南省域协调发展显得尤为迫切。从理论上分析城市体系分布的影响因素,并利用云南省州市府驻地城市建成区户籍人口面板数据进行实证检验,数据表明,财政支出、外商投资、进出口额对城市体系聚集发展的促进作用具有显著效应,而交通运输条件的改善促进城市体系的协调发展。根据研究结论,提出发展中小城市、完善区域城市体系的对策建议。
Regional coordinated development is a key research field of regional economic researches,and the optimization of urban system is an important way to promote the coordinated development of regions. Zipf model is used to study the evolution rules of the urban system of Yunnan and the results show that the urban system of Yunnan Province has the tendency of agglomeration development,and the Pareto coefficient of urban system allocation tends to decrease year by year. This indicates that the gap of provincial economic development has been increased,so it is especially urgent to promote the provincial coordinated development of Yunnan in the new era. The paper analyzes the determinants of urban system allocation theoretically,and makes an empirical test by constructing panel data of regional registered households in prefectures and cities of Yunnan. Statistics show that fiscal expenditure,FDI,and import and export volume have significant effects on promoting the agglomeration development of the urban system. Meanwhile,the improvement of urban transportation can promote the coordinated development of the urban systems. Based on the conclusions,suggestions on developing small and medium-sized cities and improving regional urban system are proposed.
Regional coordinated development is a key research field of regional economic researches,and the optimization of urban system is an important way to promote the coordinated development of regions. Zipf model is used to study the evolution rules of the urban system of Yunnan and the results show that the urban system of Yunnan Province has the tendency of agglomeration development,and the Pareto coefficient of urban system allocation tends to decrease year by year. This indicates that the gap of provincial economic development has been increased,so it is especially urgent to promote the provincial coordinated development of Yunnan in the new era. The paper analyzes the determinants of urban system allocation theoretically,and makes an empirical test by constructing panel data of regional registered households in prefectures and cities of Yunnan. Statistics show that fiscal expenditure,FDI,and import and export volume have significant effects on promoting the agglomeration development of the urban system. Meanwhile,the improvement of urban transportation can promote the coordinated development of the urban systems. Based on the conclusions,suggestions on developing small and medium-sized cities and improving regional urban system are proposed.
引文
[1]张可云.新时代的中国区域经济新常态与区域协调发展[J].国家行政学院学报,2018,(3):102-108.
[2]赵祥.城市体系优化与区域经济协调发展[J].开发研究,2016,(6):46-52.
[3]尹虹潘.经济区划、城市体系与区域协调发展---对重庆市“一圈两翼”空间发展模式合理性的分析[J].探索,2007,(3):154-158.
[4]刘修岩,秦蒙.多中心城市体系促进区域协调发展[N].中国社会科学报,2018-01-17(4).
[5]王琴梅.分享改进论:转型期区域非均衡协调发展机制研究[M].北京:人民出版社,2007.
[6]覃成林,姜文仙.区域协调发展:内涵、动因与机制体系[J].开发研究,2011,(1):14-18.
[7]王尔德,王一鸣.促进区域协调发展的关键在深化改革和体制机制创新[N].21世纪经济报道,2017-11-09(2).
[8]江曼琦,王振坡,王丽艳.中国城市规模分布演进的实证研究及对城市发展方针的反思[J].上海经济研究,2006,(6):29-35.
[9]刘学华,张学良,李鲁.中国城市体系规模结构:特征事实与经验阐释[J].财经研究,2015,(11):108-123.
[10]梁琦,陈强远,王如玉.户籍改革、劳动力流动与城市层级体系优化[J].中国社会科学,2013,(12):36-59.
[11]李松林,刘修岩.中国城市体系规模分布扁平化:多维区域验证与经济解释[J].世界经济,2017,(11):144-169.
[12]唐为.中国城市规模分布体系过于扁平化吗?[J].世界经济文汇,2016,(1):36-51.
[13]吕祯婷,焦华富.基于分形理论的安徽省城市体系规模分布研究[J].世界地理研究,2008,(9):107-112.
[14]张守忠,李玉英.1985年以来黑龙江省城市体系等级规模结构研究[J].现代城市研究,2008,(10):54-59.
[15]陆铭,向宽虎,陈钊.中国的城市化和城市体系调整:基于文献的评论[J].世界经济,2011,(6):3-25.
[16]Y M Ioannides,H G Overman,E Rossi-Hansberg,and K Schmidheiny.The Effect of Information and Communication Technologies on Urban Structure[J].Economic Policy,2008,20(2):201-242.
[17]张志强.中国城市体系演化的影响因素探究[J].江苏社会科学,2010,(3):67-72.
[18]M Fujita,P R Krugman,and A Venables.The Spatial Economy:Cities,Regions,and International Trade[M].Massachusetts:Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press,1999.
[19]安虎森.空间经济学原理[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2005.
[20]Zipf,G K.Human Behavior and the Principle of Least Effort[J].American Journal of Sociology,1949,(110):306.
[21]Auerbach,F.Das Gesetz Der Bev Ikerungskonzentration[J].Petermanns Geographische Mitteilungen,1913,(49):74-76.
[22]Xavier Gabaix,Rustam Ibragimov.Rank-1/2:A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents[Z].NBER Technical Working Papers,2007,0342.
[23]魏守华,周山人,千慧雄.中国城市规模偏差研究[J].中国工业经济,2015,(4):5-17.
[24]魏守华,孙宁,姜悦.Zipf定律与Gibrat定律在中国城市规模分布中的适用性[J].世界经济,2018,(9):96-120.
[2]赵祥.城市体系优化与区域经济协调发展[J].开发研究,2016,(6):46-52.
[3]尹虹潘.经济区划、城市体系与区域协调发展---对重庆市“一圈两翼”空间发展模式合理性的分析[J].探索,2007,(3):154-158.
[4]刘修岩,秦蒙.多中心城市体系促进区域协调发展[N].中国社会科学报,2018-01-17(4).
[5]王琴梅.分享改进论:转型期区域非均衡协调发展机制研究[M].北京:人民出版社,2007.
[6]覃成林,姜文仙.区域协调发展:内涵、动因与机制体系[J].开发研究,2011,(1):14-18.
[7]王尔德,王一鸣.促进区域协调发展的关键在深化改革和体制机制创新[N].21世纪经济报道,2017-11-09(2).
[8]江曼琦,王振坡,王丽艳.中国城市规模分布演进的实证研究及对城市发展方针的反思[J].上海经济研究,2006,(6):29-35.
[9]刘学华,张学良,李鲁.中国城市体系规模结构:特征事实与经验阐释[J].财经研究,2015,(11):108-123.
[10]梁琦,陈强远,王如玉.户籍改革、劳动力流动与城市层级体系优化[J].中国社会科学,2013,(12):36-59.
[11]李松林,刘修岩.中国城市体系规模分布扁平化:多维区域验证与经济解释[J].世界经济,2017,(11):144-169.
[12]唐为.中国城市规模分布体系过于扁平化吗?[J].世界经济文汇,2016,(1):36-51.
[13]吕祯婷,焦华富.基于分形理论的安徽省城市体系规模分布研究[J].世界地理研究,2008,(9):107-112.
[14]张守忠,李玉英.1985年以来黑龙江省城市体系等级规模结构研究[J].现代城市研究,2008,(10):54-59.
[15]陆铭,向宽虎,陈钊.中国的城市化和城市体系调整:基于文献的评论[J].世界经济,2011,(6):3-25.
[16]Y M Ioannides,H G Overman,E Rossi-Hansberg,and K Schmidheiny.The Effect of Information and Communication Technologies on Urban Structure[J].Economic Policy,2008,20(2):201-242.
[17]张志强.中国城市体系演化的影响因素探究[J].江苏社会科学,2010,(3):67-72.
[18]M Fujita,P R Krugman,and A Venables.The Spatial Economy:Cities,Regions,and International Trade[M].Massachusetts:Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press,1999.
[19]安虎森.空间经济学原理[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2005.
[20]Zipf,G K.Human Behavior and the Principle of Least Effort[J].American Journal of Sociology,1949,(110):306.
[21]Auerbach,F.Das Gesetz Der Bev Ikerungskonzentration[J].Petermanns Geographische Mitteilungen,1913,(49):74-76.
[22]Xavier Gabaix,Rustam Ibragimov.Rank-1/2:A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents[Z].NBER Technical Working Papers,2007,0342.
[23]魏守华,周山人,千慧雄.中国城市规模偏差研究[J].中国工业经济,2015,(4):5-17.
[24]魏守华,孙宁,姜悦.Zipf定律与Gibrat定律在中国城市规模分布中的适用性[J].世界经济,2018,(9):96-120.