推广政策对新能源汽车需求的影响——基于城市和车型销量数据的研究

详细信息    查看全文 | 推荐本文 |

英文篇名：The Impact of Promotion Policies on the Demand for New Energy Vehicles: Evidence from City and Model Level Sales Data 作者：李国栋 ; 罗瑞琦 ; 张鸿 英文作者：LI Guo-dong;LUO Rui-qi;ZHANG Hong;Shanghai University of International Business and Economics; 关键词：推广政策 ; 补贴 ; 牌照 ; 新能源汽车 ; 需求估计 英文关键词：promotion policies;;subsidy;;license;;new energy vehicle;;demand estimation 中文刊名：SJMY 英文刊名：Journal of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics 机构：上海对外经贸大学; 出版日期：2019-03-15 出版单位：上海对外经贸大学学报 年：2019 期：v.26;No.243 基金：国家自然科学基金“新实证产业组织视角下银行竞争对企业信贷融资的异质性影响及对策研究”(项目编号:71403165)资助 语种：中文; 页：SJMY201902005 页数：11 CN：02 ISSN：31-2089/F 分类号：50-59+69

摘要

本文首先从国家和城市两个层面梳理了2016至2017年我国新能源汽车的推广政策,然后基于城市层面数据分析新能源汽车销量占比与推广政策的经验关系,最后重点以上海市2016年1至12月共66款新能源车型的月度销量数据分析财政补贴及免费牌照两个推广政策对需求的影响。研究发现:推广政策强度与城市新能源汽车销量占比呈显著正相关关系,财政补贴及免费牌照政策能显著有效地提高消费者的新能源汽车需求;反事实分析表明这些推广政策的退出会使新能源车销量出现明显下降。因此,在新能源汽车市场仍需加强培育的情况下推广政策有必要继续维持,推广政策的退出需要针对不同企业或车型加以区别设计。
        In this paper, we firstly sort out the national and municipal promotion policies for the NEV industry in China, and then examine the empirical relationship between the policy strength and the sales proportion of NEVs among the total automobile sales, and finally explore the impact of two promotion policies, including fiscal subsidy and free license, on consumer demand using sales data of 66 NEV models from Shanghai during2016. Results show that the policy strength is positively related with the NEV sales proportion, and that fiscal subsidy and free license policies can effectively increase the demand for NEVs. Also, counterfactual analysis indicates that the withdrawal of these two policies will lead to a significant decline of NEV sales. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain the promotion policies when the NEV market still needs to be enlarged, and if needed, the exit of promotion policies should be designed carefully towards different firms or models.

引文

(1)中国新能源汽车过去及未来十年发展情况[EB/OL].搜狐网[2016-11-12].http://www.sohu.com.
    (2)中国新能源汽车销量连续三年全球第一,市场份额最高[EB/OL].中国汽车工业协会网站[2018-04-17].http://www.caam.org.cn.
    (1)李兆友,齐晓东,刘妍.新能源汽车产业政府R&D补贴效果的实证研究[J].东北大学学报(社会科学版), 2017(4):356-370;王维,李昊展,乔朋华,桂嘉华.政府补助方式对新能源汽车企业绩效影响研究——基于企业成长性的深入分析[J].科技进步与对策,2017(23):114-120.
    (2)高秀平,彭月兰.我国新能源汽车财税政策效应与时变研究——基于A股新能源汽车上市公司的实证分析[J].经济问题, 2018(1):111-115.
    (3)李礼,杨楚婧.财政货币政策联动对新能源汽车消费的影响研究[J].科技管理研究, 2017(13):30-35.
    (4)张长令,马犇,杜玖玉.市场开放、资金补贴与新兴产业市场演化——以新能源汽车产业为例[J].上海经济研究, 2016(5):52-62.
    (5)S. Berry,“Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation”, RAND Journal of Economics, 1994, 25(2):242-262; S.Berry, J. Levinsohn and A. Pakes,“Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium”, Econometrica,1995,60(4):841-890.
    (6)肖俊极,谭诗羽.中国乘用车行业的纵向一体化与横向共谋实证分析[J].经济学(季刊), 2016(4):1387-1408;J. Xiao, X. Zhou, and W. Hu,“Welfare Analysis of the Vehicle Quota System in China”, International Economic Review, 2017,58(2):617-650.
    (7)A. Beresteanu, and S. Li,“Gasoline Price, Government Support, and Demand for Hybrid Vehicles in the United States”,International Economic Review, 2011,52(1):161-182.
    (1)此处“全国占比”指的是某城市新能源汽车月度销量占当月全国新能源汽车总销量的比重。
    (1)S. Berry,“Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation”, RAND Journal of Economics, 1994,25(2):242-262.
    (2)S. Berry, J. Levinsohn, and A. Pakes,“Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium”, Econometrica, 1995,60(4):841-890.