论载人航天的价值定位与路径选择
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摘要
世界载人航天事业目前面临着"后空间站"时代发展目标缺乏共识的问题,制约其长远发展。目标缺失在美国表现为缺乏战略愿景,顶层设计和规划调整受政治斗争左右,在俄罗斯表现为体制与资源掣肘,计划进展缓慢、调整频繁。目标缺失的根源是载人航天价值定位的模糊。发展载人航天的现有价值诉求包括国家形象与国际关系、军事与国家安全、经济发展与技术进步、教育与激励、科学与探索、人类物种的延续等方面,它们大多没有回答好在自动化和人工智能高度发达的时代"为什么把人本身送入太空"这一基本问题。走出困境需要树立人类命运共同体理念,坚守立足长远的战略定力,加强载人航天的国际合作。
In the "post-station" era, the worldwide development of human spaceflight has encountered the problem of lacking consensus on its goal, which restricts its long-term development. In America, the lacking of goal manifests in the missing of a strategical vision and the changing of the overall plan due to political struggles, while in Russia, it manifests in the sluggish advancement and frequently change of plans handicapped by the regime and lack of resource. The root cause lies in the ambiguity in its value orientation. The value propositions for pursuing human spaceflight include national stature and international relations, national security and defense, economic and technology impacts, education and inspiration, science and exploration, and survival of mankind. However, there is still no satisfactory answer to the fundamental question of "why we send human per se to the outer space" in an era of highly sophisticated automation and artifactual intelligence. To find a way out of the dilemmas, we need to cultivate the awareness of a community of shared future for mankind, to adhere to the longterm strategic goals and to strengthen the international cooperation in human spaceflight.
In the "post-station" era, the worldwide development of human spaceflight has encountered the problem of lacking consensus on its goal, which restricts its long-term development. In America, the lacking of goal manifests in the missing of a strategical vision and the changing of the overall plan due to political struggles, while in Russia, it manifests in the sluggish advancement and frequently change of plans handicapped by the regime and lack of resource. The root cause lies in the ambiguity in its value orientation. The value propositions for pursuing human spaceflight include national stature and international relations, national security and defense, economic and technology impacts, education and inspiration, science and exploration, and survival of mankind. However, there is still no satisfactory answer to the fundamental question of "why we send human per se to the outer space" in an era of highly sophisticated automation and artifactual intelligence. To find a way out of the dilemmas, we need to cultivate the awareness of a community of shared future for mankind, to adhere to the longterm strategic goals and to strengthen the international cooperation in human spaceflight.
引文
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[3]戴维·弗里德曼.载人火箭,飞向火星[J].环球科学,2015,(7):26-35.
[4]王永生、周生东、赵东明.俄罗斯载人登月发展态势分析[J].国际太空,2015,(7):24-29.
[5]Behrens,C.'Mary Beth Nikitin.Extending NASA’s Exemption from the Iran,North Korea,and Syria Nonproliferation Act'[R].CRS report,RL34477,Updated October 1,2008.
[6]魏雯.2006-2030年俄罗斯载人航天发展构想[J].中国航天,2007,(9):30-36.
[7]张京男.俄罗斯航天国家集团公司成立的影响与分析[J].国际太空,2015,(9):7-12.
[8]熊明华、刘永喆、宋轶姝.俄罗斯载人登月相关问题分析[J].国际太空,2016,(8):47-55.
[9]周生东,王永生.2016年俄罗斯十大航天热点新闻[J].国际太空,2017,(2):73-75.
[10]赫彭海默.倒计时--航天器的历史[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,2006,434.
[11]National Security Decision Directive 164,“National Security Launch Strategy,”February 25,1985.[EB/OL].https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdd/nsdd-164.htm.2017-10-15.
[12]National Research Council.Pathways to Exploration:Rationales and Approaches for a U.S.Program of Human Space Exploration[M].Washington,DC:National Academies Press,2014,57.
[13]Midwest Research Institute.Economic Impact of Stimulated Technological Activity[R].Kansas City:October 15,1971
[14]卡尔·萨根.暗淡蓝点:展望人类的太空家园[M].上海:上海科技教育出版社,2000,209.
[15]National Research Council.Learning Science in Informal Environments:People,Places,and Pursuits[M].The National Academies Press,Washington,D.C.,2009,100-102.
[16]James,A.Van Allen.'Is Human Spaceflight Now Obsolete'[J].Science,2004,304:822.
[17]霍金.脆弱地球无法支持人类再活1000年必须尽快逃离[EB/OL].http://tech.qq.com/a/20161117/005150.htm.2017-10-15.
[18]卡尔·萨根.神秘的宇宙[M].天津:天津社会科学院出版社,2008,219.
[19]李学江.来自美国宇航员的祝贺[N].人民日报,2005-10-20(14).