中国东部中强地震潜在震源区地震复发概率分布
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摘要
本文对中国大陆东部102个中强潜在震源区内1500a以来5—6级地震的复发间隔进行了统计分析,得到了中强地震复发间隔不仅受潜源内断层活动性影响,还与发震构造是否交汇及邻区构造活动等因素有一定关系。中强地震复发间隔大致满足指数分布,通过给出的概率模型可以计算出研究区内各潜在震源区未来一定时间内的发震概率,为地震危险性分析提供一些基础资料。
The statistical analysis is performed to study the recurrence interval of earthquake(5≤M≤6) since 1500 a, which occurred in moderate-strong potential seismic source in the east of the update of National Seismic Zoning Map of China. We found that the recurrence interval of moderate-strong earthquakes depend on not only fault activity, but also whether seismogenic structures across or structural activities nearby. In the statistical analysis, the recurrence interval of moderate-strong earthquakes is of approximately exponential distribution. We then define the probability model to calculate the probability of earthquake occurrence in potential seismic source in the future, which can provide the basic data to seismic risk analysis of the zone.
The statistical analysis is performed to study the recurrence interval of earthquake(5≤M≤6) since 1500 a, which occurred in moderate-strong potential seismic source in the east of the update of National Seismic Zoning Map of China. We found that the recurrence interval of moderate-strong earthquakes depend on not only fault activity, but also whether seismogenic structures across or structural activities nearby. In the statistical analysis, the recurrence interval of moderate-strong earthquakes is of approximately exponential distribution. We then define the probability model to calculate the probability of earthquake occurrence in potential seismic source in the future, which can provide the basic data to seismic risk analysis of the zone.
引文
高孟潭,肖和平,燕为民等,2008.中强地震活动地区地震区划重要性及关键技术进展.震灾防御技术,3(1):1—7.
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋,1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一——以华北地区为例.地震学报,16(3):273—280.
马秀芳,傅丽萍,1991.爆发余震与强震关系的统计检验.地震学报,13(3):273—280.
彭艳菊,张力方,吕悦军,谢卓娟,2011.中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较.中国地震,27 (4):376—385.
盛菊琴,马禾青,任学梅,赵卫明,2007.基于区域地震活动频次对比的余震删除方法.地震,27(1):85—94.
鄢家全,贾素娟,1996.我国东北和华北地区中强地震潜在震源区的划分原则与方法.中国地震,12(2):173 —194.
杨智娴,闵子群,张四昌,1991.初论中国部分地区历史地震记录的完好性.东北地震研究,7(1):68—76.
周本刚,陈国星,高战武,周庆,李姜一,2013.新地震区划图潜在震源区划分的主要技术特色.震灾防御技术,8(2):113—124.
Keilis-Borok V.I.and Kossobokov V.G.,1986.Time of increased probability for the great earthquakes of the world.In:Conputational Seismology,1(19):48-58.
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋,1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一——以华北地区为例.地震学报,16(3):273—280.
马秀芳,傅丽萍,1991.爆发余震与强震关系的统计检验.地震学报,13(3):273—280.
彭艳菊,张力方,吕悦军,谢卓娟,2011.中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较.中国地震,27 (4):376—385.
盛菊琴,马禾青,任学梅,赵卫明,2007.基于区域地震活动频次对比的余震删除方法.地震,27(1):85—94.
鄢家全,贾素娟,1996.我国东北和华北地区中强地震潜在震源区的划分原则与方法.中国地震,12(2):173 —194.
杨智娴,闵子群,张四昌,1991.初论中国部分地区历史地震记录的完好性.东北地震研究,7(1):68—76.
周本刚,陈国星,高战武,周庆,李姜一,2013.新地震区划图潜在震源区划分的主要技术特色.震灾防御技术,8(2):113—124.
Keilis-Borok V.I.and Kossobokov V.G.,1986.Time of increased probability for the great earthquakes of the world.In:Conputational Seismology,1(19):48-58.