长江经济带包容性绿色增长的测度与区域差异分析
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摘要
通过理论分析,构建长江经济带包容性绿色增长评价体系,选用熵权TOPSIS法评价长江经济带110个城市的包容性绿色增长水平。运用基尼系数、泰尔指数和对数离差均值等差异性指标测度了长江经济带各区域内包容性绿色增长的均等化程度,并引入σ收敛模型、绝对β收敛模型和条件β收敛模型检验其收敛性特征。结果显示:长江经济带整体包容性绿色增长水平以2013年为转折点,呈现先递减后上升的趋势;经济发展和生态环境保护扮演着长江经济带整体包容性绿色增长中最重要的两个角色,绿色生产与资源消费的重要性日益增强;区域差异以2013年为拐点,呈现先上升后下降的"倒U"型变化趋势;各区域包容性绿色增长存在着显著的收敛性,上、中游地区β收敛系数的绝对值明显大于下游地区,存在着上、中游地区对下游地区的"追赶效应";技术创新和人力资本水平提升对各区域包容性绿色增长的收敛具有显著正向影响。
Through theoretical analysis, the first time to build the Yangtze river economic belt inclusive green growth evaluation system, selection of entropy TOPSIS method for evaluation of the Yangtze river economic belt in 110 cities inclusive green growth level, using the gini coefficient, tal index and logarithmic average deviation difference index to measure the each equalization of inclusive green growth in the area of the Yangtze river economic belt, and introduce σconvergence model, the model of absolute βconvergence and conditional βconvergence model test its convergence characteristics.The results showed that the overall inclusive green growth level of the Yangtze river economic belt took 2013 as the turning point, and showed a trend of decreasing first and then increasing.Among them, economic development and ecological environmental protection play the two most important parts in the overall inclusive green growth of the Yangtze river economic belt. Taking 2013 as the inflection point, regional differences show an "inverted u-shaped" change trend of rising first and then falling. Regional inclusive green growth, there is a significant βconvergence in the absolute value of coefficient of convergence in the middle area significantly greater than the downstream areas, with middle region of downstream of the "catch-up effect", technical innovation and human capital level of each area has significant positive effect on convergence of inclusive green growth.
Through theoretical analysis, the first time to build the Yangtze river economic belt inclusive green growth evaluation system, selection of entropy TOPSIS method for evaluation of the Yangtze river economic belt in 110 cities inclusive green growth level, using the gini coefficient, tal index and logarithmic average deviation difference index to measure the each equalization of inclusive green growth in the area of the Yangtze river economic belt, and introduce σconvergence model, the model of absolute βconvergence and conditional βconvergence model test its convergence characteristics.The results showed that the overall inclusive green growth level of the Yangtze river economic belt took 2013 as the turning point, and showed a trend of decreasing first and then increasing.Among them, economic development and ecological environmental protection play the two most important parts in the overall inclusive green growth of the Yangtze river economic belt. Taking 2013 as the inflection point, regional differences show an "inverted u-shaped" change trend of rising first and then falling. Regional inclusive green growth, there is a significant βconvergence in the absolute value of coefficient of convergence in the middle area significantly greater than the downstream areas, with middle region of downstream of the "catch-up effect", technical innovation and human capital level of each area has significant positive effect on convergence of inclusive green growth.
引文
[1]Org Z.Inclusive Green Growth:The Pathway to Sustainable Development[M].World Bank,2012.
[2]OECD.Inclusive Green Growth:For the Future We Want[R].OECD Working Paper,2012.
[3]张晓颖.经济、环境、社会发展与人:从可持续发展观到包容性绿色增长[J].江淮论坛,2014(06):93-98.
[4]张芮嘉.浅谈川甘青结合部藏区生态补偿及绿色包容性增长[J].现代经济信息,2015(23):465+484.
[5]杨雪星.包容性绿色经济增长指数构建与实证研究——基于G20国家数据[J].福建论坛(人文社会科学版),2014(06):42-48.
[6]徐宝亮,钟海燕.中国经济增长的绿色包容性:基于FA的动态测度[J].科技管理研究,2015,35(12):214-219.
[7]吴武林,周小亮.中国包容性绿色增长测算评价与影响因素研究[J].社会科学研究,2018(01):27-37.
[8]胡书芳,马宪法.浙江省城市绿色发展水平评价及区域差异分析[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(07):110-114.
[9]赵吉.城市支点、协调发展与长江经济带城市群走向[J].重庆社会科学,2017(2):42-49.
[10]张泽义.环境污染、长江经济带绿色城镇化效率及其影响因素——基于综合城镇化视角[J].财经论丛,2018(2):3-10.
[11]周正柱.长江经济带城镇化质量时空格局演变及未来趋势[J].深圳大学学报(人文社会科学版),2018(4):62-71.
[12]余兴厚,熊兴.居民资源禀赋、主体认知与基本公共服务满意度——基于三峡库区829份调查问卷的实证分析[J].西部论坛,2018,28(05):99-108.
[13]Olson D L .Comparison of weights in TOPSIS models[M].Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.2004.
[14]刘明,王思文.β收敛、空间依赖与中国制造业发展[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,35(02):3-23.
[15]王许亮,王恕立.服务业能源生产率变迁及收敛性分析——基于全球40个经济体细分行业数据的经验研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,35(01):42-59.
[16]滕泽伟,胡宗彪,蒋西艳.中国服务业碳生产率变动的差异及收敛性研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017,34(03):78-94.
[17]刘亦文,文晓茜,胡宗义.中国污染物排放的地区差异及收敛性研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016,33(04):78-94.
(1)鉴于阿坝藏族羌族自治州、凉山彝族自治州等16个少数民族自治州的部分统计数据不完整,本文的测算分析不考虑少数民族自治州。
(1)本文的绝对β收敛检验采用截面模型检验。
(2)本文的条件β收敛检验采用固定效应面板模型检验。
(1)本文的上游地区界定为云南、贵州、四川和重庆的33个城市;中游地区界定为湖北、湖南、江西和安徽的52个城市;下游地区界定为江苏、浙江和上海的25个城市;共计110个城市。
(1)彭国华(2005)认为引入控制变量会造成条件β收敛检验结果出现偏差,因此本文采用逐步加入控制变量分析。实验结果显示加入技术创新、人力资本水平以及制度变迁等控制变量不会影响到各区域β收敛检验结果。
[2]OECD.Inclusive Green Growth:For the Future We Want[R].OECD Working Paper,2012.
[3]张晓颖.经济、环境、社会发展与人:从可持续发展观到包容性绿色增长[J].江淮论坛,2014(06):93-98.
[4]张芮嘉.浅谈川甘青结合部藏区生态补偿及绿色包容性增长[J].现代经济信息,2015(23):465+484.
[5]杨雪星.包容性绿色经济增长指数构建与实证研究——基于G20国家数据[J].福建论坛(人文社会科学版),2014(06):42-48.
[6]徐宝亮,钟海燕.中国经济增长的绿色包容性:基于FA的动态测度[J].科技管理研究,2015,35(12):214-219.
[7]吴武林,周小亮.中国包容性绿色增长测算评价与影响因素研究[J].社会科学研究,2018(01):27-37.
[8]胡书芳,马宪法.浙江省城市绿色发展水平评价及区域差异分析[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(07):110-114.
[9]赵吉.城市支点、协调发展与长江经济带城市群走向[J].重庆社会科学,2017(2):42-49.
[10]张泽义.环境污染、长江经济带绿色城镇化效率及其影响因素——基于综合城镇化视角[J].财经论丛,2018(2):3-10.
[11]周正柱.长江经济带城镇化质量时空格局演变及未来趋势[J].深圳大学学报(人文社会科学版),2018(4):62-71.
[12]余兴厚,熊兴.居民资源禀赋、主体认知与基本公共服务满意度——基于三峡库区829份调查问卷的实证分析[J].西部论坛,2018,28(05):99-108.
[13]Olson D L .Comparison of weights in TOPSIS models[M].Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.2004.
[14]刘明,王思文.β收敛、空间依赖与中国制造业发展[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,35(02):3-23.
[15]王许亮,王恕立.服务业能源生产率变迁及收敛性分析——基于全球40个经济体细分行业数据的经验研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,35(01):42-59.
[16]滕泽伟,胡宗彪,蒋西艳.中国服务业碳生产率变动的差异及收敛性研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017,34(03):78-94.
[17]刘亦文,文晓茜,胡宗义.中国污染物排放的地区差异及收敛性研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016,33(04):78-94.
(1)鉴于阿坝藏族羌族自治州、凉山彝族自治州等16个少数民族自治州的部分统计数据不完整,本文的测算分析不考虑少数民族自治州。
(1)本文的绝对β收敛检验采用截面模型检验。
(2)本文的条件β收敛检验采用固定效应面板模型检验。
(1)本文的上游地区界定为云南、贵州、四川和重庆的33个城市;中游地区界定为湖北、湖南、江西和安徽的52个城市;下游地区界定为江苏、浙江和上海的25个城市;共计110个城市。
(1)彭国华(2005)认为引入控制变量会造成条件β收敛检验结果出现偏差,因此本文采用逐步加入控制变量分析。实验结果显示加入技术创新、人力资本水平以及制度变迁等控制变量不会影响到各区域β收敛检验结果。