配电网投资决策体系研究
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摘要
随着新一轮电力体制改革的推进,对电网公司的投资决策方法进行调整与改进以适应电力市场环境变得至关重要。在构建配电网建设成效评价指标体系、分析硬性投资规模及经营绩效的基础上,建立了配电网投资规模分配模型;基于项目属性重要程度建立了投资方向分配模型;综合考虑配电网运行指标改善效果及经济效益,构建了适用于各属性的项目评价指标体系,进而建立了项目优选模型;基于以上三层构成的配电网投资决策体系可逐层实现区域投资规模分配、属性投资规模分配以及投资项目组合优选,三层决策环环相扣,层次推进,有利于保证配电网投资的整体性、协调性与网络性,从而实现精准投资。最后通过实际配电网算例分析验证了所提决策体系的有效性。
With the progress of the new round of power system reform, it becomes essential to adjust and improve the investment decision-making methods of power grid companies to adapt to the power market environment. On the basis of establishing the evaluation index system of distribution network construction effectiveness and analyzing the hard investment scale and operation performance, a distribution network investment scale allocation model is established. Based on the importance of project attributes, an investment direction allocation model is established. Considering the improvement effect and economic benefit of distribution network operation index, a project evaluation index system suitable for each attribute is constructed, and then a project optimization model is established.The distribution network investment decision-making system based on the above three layers can realize regional investment scale allocation, attribute investment scale allocation and investment portfolio optimization layer by layer, and the three layers of decisionmaking are linked and promoted layer by layer, ensuring the integrity, coordination and network of the distribution network investment,thus realizing accurate investment. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed decision-making system is verified by an actual distribution network example.
With the progress of the new round of power system reform, it becomes essential to adjust and improve the investment decision-making methods of power grid companies to adapt to the power market environment. On the basis of establishing the evaluation index system of distribution network construction effectiveness and analyzing the hard investment scale and operation performance, a distribution network investment scale allocation model is established. Based on the importance of project attributes, an investment direction allocation model is established. Considering the improvement effect and economic benefit of distribution network operation index, a project evaluation index system suitable for each attribute is constructed, and then a project optimization model is established.The distribution network investment decision-making system based on the above three layers can realize regional investment scale allocation, attribute investment scale allocation and investment portfolio optimization layer by layer, and the three layers of decisionmaking are linked and promoted layer by layer, ensuring the integrity, coordination and network of the distribution network investment,thus realizing accurate investment. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed decision-making system is verified by an actual distribution network example.
引文
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[18]李辉.改进残差GM(1,1)模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用[J].广东电力,2017,30(9):81-85.LI Hui. Application of improved residual error GM(1,1)model medium and long term load forecasting[J].Guangdong Electric Power, 2017,30(9):81-85.
[2]何璞玉,喻小宝,杜英,等.改进ELECTRE-Ⅲ算法在省级电网效益与效率综合评估中的应用研究[J].智慧电力,2018,46(8):52-59.HE Puyu, YU Xiaobao, DU Ying, et al. Application of improved ECECTRE-ⅢAlgorithm in effectiveness and efficiency comprehensive evaluation of provincial grid[J].Smart Power. 2018,46(8):52-59.
[3]孙义豪,李秋燕,丁岩,等.基于主成分分析及系统聚类的县域电网综合评价方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017, 45(8):30-36.SUN Yihao, LI Qiuyan, DING Yan, et al. County power grid evaluation system based on principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2017, 45(8):30-36.
[4]羌丁建,寿挺,朱铁铭,等.高压配电网规划评价指标体系与综合评价模型[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(21):52-57.QIANG Dingjian, SHOU Ting, ZHU Tieming, et al. An evaluation index system and comprehensive evaluation model on high-voltage distribution network planning[J].Power System Protection and Control, 2013, 41(21):52-57.
[5]肖峻,王成山,周敏.基于区间层次分析法的城市电网规划综合评判决策[J].中国电机工程学报,2004, 24(4):54-61.XIAO Jun, WANG Chengshan, ZHOU Min. An IAHPbased MADM method in urban power system planning[J].Proceedings of the CSEE, 2004, 24(4):54-61.
[6]肖峻,罗凤章,王成山,等.电网规划综合评判决策系统的设计与应用[J].电网技术,2005, 29(2):9-13.XIAO Jun, LUO Fengzhang, WANG Chengshan, et al.Design and application of a multi-attribution decisionmaking system for power system planning[J]. Power System Technology, 2005, 29(2):9-13.
[7]肖峻,崔燕妍,王建民,等.配电网规划的综合评价指标体系和方法[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(15):36-40.XIAO Jun, CUI Yanyan, WANG Jianmin, et al. A hierarchical performance assessment method on the distribution network planning[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2008,32(15):36-40.
[8]张富强,罗慧,刘梅招,等.基于基尼系数的电力网络投资分配模型及应用[J].电力建设,2016, 37(1):9-14.ZHANG Fuqiang, LUO Hui, LIU Maizhao, et al. A gini coefficient based investment allocation model for power networks and its application[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2016, 37(1):9-14.
[9]罗一哲.浙江省电网年度投资方案的优化研究[D].杭州:浙江工商大学,2013.
[10]李文,崔文婷,冯建华,等.考虑项目属性的中压配电网投资决策方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2018,30(5):50-55.LI Wen, CUI Wenting, FENG Jianhua, et al. Decisionmaking method for investiment on medium-voltage distribution network considering project attributes[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA, 2018, 30(5):50-55.
[11]崔巍,崔莹莹,杨海峰.电网专项领域投资决策模型[J].电力建设,2013, 34(10):112-117.CUI Wei, CUI Yingying, YANG Haifeng. Investiment decision model in special fields for power grid[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2013, 34(10):112-117.
[12]崔文婷,刘洪,杨卫红,等.配电网投资分配及项目优选研究[J].中国电力,2015, 48(11):149-154.CUI Wenting, LIU Hong, YANG Weihong, et al. Study on distribution network investiment allocation and project selection optimization[J]. Electric Power, 2015, 48(11):149-154.
[13] Satty T L. The Analytic Hierarchy Process[M]. NewYork:McGraw-Hill, Inc., 1980.
[14]平狄克,鲁宾费尔德.微观经济学[M]. 7版.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2009.
[15]苏智先.生态学概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1993.
[16]邹品晶,姚建刚,孔维辉,等.基于多变量时间序列反演自记忆模型的中长期电力负荷预测[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2017, 29(10):98-105.ZOU Pinjing, YAO Jiangang, KONG Weihui, et al. Midlong term power load forecasting based on multivariable time series inversion self-memory model[J]. Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA, 2017, 29(10):98-105.
[17]杜剑,欧阳俊,李国柱,等.新形势下城市输电网规划方法研究[J].湖北电力,2017,41(3):1-5.DU Jian, OUYANG Jun, LI Guozhu, et al. Research on the network planning of city transmission under new situation[J]. Hubei Electric Power, 2017,41(3):1-5.
[18]李辉.改进残差GM(1,1)模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用[J].广东电力,2017,30(9):81-85.LI Hui. Application of improved residual error GM(1,1)model medium and long term load forecasting[J].Guangdong Electric Power, 2017,30(9):81-85.
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