基于PSR模型的中国石油安全评价研究
|
摘要
中国石油对外依存度持续走高,石油安全成为各方关注的焦点。为客观评价中国石油安全状况,本文运用压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型和层次分析法,结合石油供需、石油经济、政治与军事等3类石油安全影响因素,构建了具有内在因果联系和互动关系的石油安全定量评价指标体系。综合评价认为,2000—2017年,通过强化石油安全响应机制建设,中国石油安全总体状况先降后升。与美国、欧盟和日本发达经济体相比,中国石油安全存在对外依存度持续走高、石油应急调控能力较弱、海外石油获取控制能力不强等三大薄弱环节。随着综合国力增强,未来中国石油安全需由被动防御型安全向主动防御型安全转变,通过强化应急调控能力建设和重点地区能源外交,努力实现石油进口自主、可控安全。
China petroleum security has attracted great public attention since the petroleum dependence degree on foreign trade continues to rise. In order to get an objective evaluation of national petroleum security, by using Pressure-State-Response(PSR) model and analytic hierarchical process, combined with petroleum security influence factors such as supply & demand, economic condition, politics & military, this paper establishes the quantified China petroleum security evaluation index system which concerns about internal relations and interactions. According to comprehensive evaluation, it shows that China petroleum security condition first fell and then rose during 2000～2017 by consolidating petroleum security response mechanism construction. Compared with developed country such as USA, EU & Japan, China petroleum security has three weak points including increment of dependence degree on foreign trade, weakness for urgent regulation control ability and overseas oil acquisition control ability. Accompanied by enhancement of comprehensive national power, China petroleum security should be changed from passive defensive type to active defensive type in future. By strengthening urgent regulation control ability, and intensifying energy diplomacy in key regions, the import autonomy and controllable safety will be greatly improved.
China petroleum security has attracted great public attention since the petroleum dependence degree on foreign trade continues to rise. In order to get an objective evaluation of national petroleum security, by using Pressure-State-Response(PSR) model and analytic hierarchical process, combined with petroleum security influence factors such as supply & demand, economic condition, politics & military, this paper establishes the quantified China petroleum security evaluation index system which concerns about internal relations and interactions. According to comprehensive evaluation, it shows that China petroleum security condition first fell and then rose during 2000～2017 by consolidating petroleum security response mechanism construction. Compared with developed country such as USA, EU & Japan, China petroleum security has three weak points including increment of dependence degree on foreign trade, weakness for urgent regulation control ability and overseas oil acquisition control ability. Accompanied by enhancement of comprehensive national power, China petroleum security should be changed from passive defensive type to active defensive type in future. By strengthening urgent regulation control ability, and intensifying energy diplomacy in key regions, the import autonomy and controllable safety will be greatly improved.
引文
[1]BP能源统计年鉴2018[Z].
[2]Kruyt B,Van Vuuren D P,De Vries H J M,et al.Indicators for energy security[J].Energy Polity,2009,37(6):2166-2181.
[3]Scheepers M,SEEBREGTS A,DE JONG J,et al.EU standards for energy security of supply[R].ECN/Clingendael International Energy Program:Petten&The Hague,2012.
[4]Oil Security Index Quarterly Update[Z].Securing Amerca’s Future Energy,2014.
[5]范秋芳.中国石油安全预警及对策研究[D].2007.
[6]范秋芳.基于BP神经网络的中国石油安全预警研究[J].运筹与管理,2007,16(5):100-105.
[7]范秋芳,赵亚丽.基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价模型的中国石油安全预警研究[J].中外能源,2014,19(2):8-12.
[8]周晓波.石油安全视角下中国石油进口地空间格局研究[D].2013.
[9]刘建,卢波.非传统安全视角下中国石油安全的测度及国际比较研究[J].国际经贸探索,2016,(7):25-28.
[10]郭毓峰.基于德尔菲法的中国石油安全度评价[J].商场现代化,2009,(2):386-387.
[11]李凤升,赵俊平,董金涛,等.基于主成分分析法的中国石油安全度评价[J].中国石油大学学报(社会科学版),2013,29(3):9-12.
[12]张小琳.基于修正层次分析法的中国石油贸易风险问题研究[D].2014.
[13]刘浩旻,张在旭.国际油价波动背景下中国石油安全评价研究[J].中国石油大学学报(社会科学版),2018,34(6):21-28.
[14]Lord,D.A.The state of Cockburn sound:a pressure-stateresponse report[M].Adelaide,Australia:Environment and infrastructure PLY Ltd,2000.7-8.
[15]Saaty,T.L.Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process[J].International joural of services sciences,2008,1(1):83-98.
[2]Kruyt B,Van Vuuren D P,De Vries H J M,et al.Indicators for energy security[J].Energy Polity,2009,37(6):2166-2181.
[3]Scheepers M,SEEBREGTS A,DE JONG J,et al.EU standards for energy security of supply[R].ECN/Clingendael International Energy Program:Petten&The Hague,2012.
[4]Oil Security Index Quarterly Update[Z].Securing Amerca’s Future Energy,2014.
[5]范秋芳.中国石油安全预警及对策研究[D].2007.
[6]范秋芳.基于BP神经网络的中国石油安全预警研究[J].运筹与管理,2007,16(5):100-105.
[7]范秋芳,赵亚丽.基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价模型的中国石油安全预警研究[J].中外能源,2014,19(2):8-12.
[8]周晓波.石油安全视角下中国石油进口地空间格局研究[D].2013.
[9]刘建,卢波.非传统安全视角下中国石油安全的测度及国际比较研究[J].国际经贸探索,2016,(7):25-28.
[10]郭毓峰.基于德尔菲法的中国石油安全度评价[J].商场现代化,2009,(2):386-387.
[11]李凤升,赵俊平,董金涛,等.基于主成分分析法的中国石油安全度评价[J].中国石油大学学报(社会科学版),2013,29(3):9-12.
[12]张小琳.基于修正层次分析法的中国石油贸易风险问题研究[D].2014.
[13]刘浩旻,张在旭.国际油价波动背景下中国石油安全评价研究[J].中国石油大学学报(社会科学版),2018,34(6):21-28.
[14]Lord,D.A.The state of Cockburn sound:a pressure-stateresponse report[M].Adelaide,Australia:Environment and infrastructure PLY Ltd,2000.7-8.
[15]Saaty,T.L.Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process[J].International joural of services sciences,2008,1(1):83-98.