基于Morris-Sobol的临界雨量参数敏感性分析

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英文篇名：Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters in Rainfall Threshold Calculation Based on Morris-Sobol Model 作者：原文林 ; 高倩雨 ; 张晓蕾 ; 郝鹏 英文作者：YUAN Wenlin;GAO Qianyu;ZHANG Xiaolei;HAO Peng;School of Water Conservancy and Environment,Zhengzhou University;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research;Press and Publication Center,YRCC; 关键词：山洪灾害 ; 临界雨量 ; 参数敏感性分析 ; Morris-Sobol二层模型 ; 水位流量反推法 英文关键词：flash flood;;rainfall threshold;;parameters sensitivity analysis;;Morris-Sobol Two-Layer Model;;Water Level-Discharge Inversion Method 中文刊名：RMHH 英文刊名：Yellow River 机构：郑州大学水利与环境学院;中国水利水电科学研究院;黄河水利委员会新闻宣传出版中心; 出版日期：2018-07-10 出版单位：人民黄河 年：2018 期：v.40;No.395 基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51779229) 语种：中文; 页：RMHH201807009 页数：5 CN：07 ISSN：41-1128/TV 分类号：37-41

摘要

山洪灾害临界雨量计算参数众多,部分取值受主观因素影响较大。对此,应用敏感性分析理论,建立基于Morris-Sobol的临界雨量计算参数敏感性分析二层模型。该模型首先利用修正的Morris筛选法对参数进行定性分析,以定性分析结果为基础,选取中等灵敏度以上参数作为定量分析的参数,再通过Sobol指数法对选取参数进行定量敏感性分析。通过定性分析与定量计算相结合的分层递进,分析计算各参数对临界雨量的影响程度。以河南省安阳县都里乡都里前街小流域为研究对象,对其临界雨量计算过程中的参数敏感性进行分析,结果表明:最大1 h点雨量均值珚H_1的敏感性最大,说明在临界雨量计算中,短历时暴雨对计算结果的影响较大。不论是利用设计暴雨还是实测降雨进行临界雨量计算,均应注意短历时暴雨的资料精度。
        The amount of parameter in rainfall threshold calculation is significantly large and the determination of some parameters value is substantially influenced by subjective factors. In order to solve this problem,a Morris-Sobol two-layer model was established to identify the sensitive parameters in rainfall threshold calculation. Firstly,the Morris screening method was applied to qualitatively analyze the sensitivity of parameters and the insensitive parameters were filtered. Then the Sobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity. The sensitivity of parameters in rainfall threshold calculation was determined through a case study in Duliqianjie small watershed of Anyang County in Henan Province. The results indicate that mean of 1 h annual maximum point rainfall is the greatest influential parameter. It is found that the parameters in water level-discharge relation calculation have great influence to the rainfall threshold,indicating that the proposed model can provide a reference for determining the value of parameters and lay a theoretical foundation for further error analysis in rainfall threshold calculation.

引文

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