FDI与入境商务旅游的互动过程与格局分析——以我国东部地区为例
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摘要
文章选取1996—2016年我国东部11省市外商直接投资(FDI)和入境商务旅游(IBT)的空间面板数据,利用改进的灰色关联模型,在测度二者互动水平的基础上,基于时空视角探讨了二者的互动过程和格局。结果表明:(1)东部FDI与IBT的互动水平较高且出现了极化效应;二者的互动经历了"波浪状"般的演变过程,并具有一定的下降趋势,但二者的互动演变在波动形制和演变趋势上均存在一定的省际差异。(2)全局空间自相关检验表明,二者的互动关系存在空间依赖关系,但这种空间依赖性在减弱。(3)局部空间自相关检验表明,东部FDI与IBT的互动关系存在明显的地域分化现象和空间互动效应,而这种空间互动效应仅在"小区"内显著,在"小区"间不显著。
In this paper, the spatial panel data of FDI and inbound business tourism(IBT) in the 11 provinces of eastern China from 1996 to 2016 are selected, and the improved grey correlation model is used to measure the level of interaction between them. Based on the view of time and space, the interaction process and pattern of the two are discussed. The results are as follows:①The interaction between FDI and IBT in eastern China has a high level and polarization effect, the interaction between them has experienced a "wavy" evolution process, and has a certain downward trend. However, there are some provincial differences in the fluctuation pattern and evolution trend of the interaction between the two. ②The global spatial autocorrelation test shows that there is a spatial dependence on the interaction between the two, but this spatial dependence is weakening. ③Local spatial autocorrelation test showed that the interaction between FDI and IBT in eastern China had obvious regional differentiation phenomenon and spatial interaction effect, yet the spatial interaction effect was only significant in"community", but not significant between "communities".
In this paper, the spatial panel data of FDI and inbound business tourism(IBT) in the 11 provinces of eastern China from 1996 to 2016 are selected, and the improved grey correlation model is used to measure the level of interaction between them. Based on the view of time and space, the interaction process and pattern of the two are discussed. The results are as follows:①The interaction between FDI and IBT in eastern China has a high level and polarization effect, the interaction between them has experienced a "wavy" evolution process, and has a certain downward trend. However, there are some provincial differences in the fluctuation pattern and evolution trend of the interaction between the two. ②The global spatial autocorrelation test shows that there is a spatial dependence on the interaction between the two, but this spatial dependence is weakening. ③Local spatial autocorrelation test showed that the interaction between FDI and IBT in eastern China had obvious regional differentiation phenomenon and spatial interaction effect, yet the spatial interaction effect was only significant in"community", but not significant between "communities".
引文
[1]KULENDRAN N,WILSON K.Is There a Relationship between International Trade and International Travel?[J].Applied Economics,2000,32(8):1001-1009.
[2]JORDAN S,WILSON K.Causality between Trade and Tourism:Empirical Evidence from China[J].Applied Economics Letters,2001,8(4):279-283.
[3]KATIRCIOGLU S.The Bounds Test to the Level Relationship and Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and International Tourism:The Case of Turkey[J].E+M Ekonomie A Management,2011,14(1):6-13.
[4]ARADHYULA S,TRONSTAD R.Does Tourism Promote Cross-border Trade?[J].International Archives of Occupational&Environmental Health,2003,85(3):569-579.
[5]KADIR N,JUSOFF K.The Cointegration and Causality Tests for Tourism and Trade in Malaysia[J].International Journal of Economics&Finance,2010,2(1):138-143.
[6]孙根年.大国优势与中国旅游业的高速持续增长[J].旅游学刊,2008(4):29-34.
[7]马丽君,孙根年,王洁洁,等.旅游推动贸易、贸易促进旅游:15年来中日出入境旅游对双边贸易的影响[J].经济地理,2010(4):696-700.
[8]TISDELL C,WEN J.Investment in China's Tourism Industry:Its Scale,Nature,and Policy Issues[J].China Economic Review,1991,2(2):175-193.
[9]TANG S M,SELVANATHAN E A,SELVANATHAN S.The Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Tourism:Empirical Evidence from China[J].Tourism Economics,2007,13(1):25-39.
[10]WALMSLEY T L,HERTEL T W,LANCHOVICHINA E.Assessing the Impact of China's WTO Accession on Investment[J].Pacific Economic Review,2006,11(3):315-339.
[11]SELVANATHAN S,SELVANNATHAN E A,VISWANATHAN B.Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Tourism:Empirical Evidence from India[J].Tourism Analysis,2012,17(8):91-98.
[12]TOMOHARA A.Japan's Tourism-led Foreign Direct Investment Inflows:An Empirical Study[J].Economic Modelling,2016,52(9):435-441.
[13]保继刚,刘雪梅.广东城市海外旅游发展动力因子量化分析[J].旅游学刊,2002(1):44-48.
[14]万广华,汤树梅.外国直接投资与旅游业:来自中国的证据[J].世界经济文汇,2006(5):49-59.
[15]蒋才芳,陈收.旅游外汇收入、FDI与国内生产总值的协整分析[J].湖南大学学报(社会科学版),2010(4):78-83.
[16]傅元海,史言信.外商直接投资的旅游服务出口创造效应与区域差异---基于中国区域动态面板的研究[J].当代经济研究,2012(3):75-81.
[17]高明.中国入境旅游规模与“外国直接投资”依赖[J].旅游论坛,2011(1):44-50.
[18]包富华,陈瑛.入境商务旅游与外商直接投资互动关系研究---以北京、上海、广州为例[J].上海经济研究,2016(6):53-61.
[19]包富华,陈瑛.FDI与入境商务旅游的关系研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2016(4):80-86.
[20]包富华,朱美宁,李文正.江浙沪FDI与入境商务旅游关系研究[J].商业研究,2017(2):88-95.
[21]包富华.FDI对入境商务旅游的影响研究---基于空间计量的实证[J].浙江工商大学学报,2017(2):90-99.
(1)参考已有文献将东部11省市划分为四大地区,即:东北地区(辽宁)、华北地区(北京、天津和河北)、华东地区(山东、江苏、上海、浙江和福建)和华南地区(广东和海南)。
[2]JORDAN S,WILSON K.Causality between Trade and Tourism:Empirical Evidence from China[J].Applied Economics Letters,2001,8(4):279-283.
[3]KATIRCIOGLU S.The Bounds Test to the Level Relationship and Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and International Tourism:The Case of Turkey[J].E+M Ekonomie A Management,2011,14(1):6-13.
[4]ARADHYULA S,TRONSTAD R.Does Tourism Promote Cross-border Trade?[J].International Archives of Occupational&Environmental Health,2003,85(3):569-579.
[5]KADIR N,JUSOFF K.The Cointegration and Causality Tests for Tourism and Trade in Malaysia[J].International Journal of Economics&Finance,2010,2(1):138-143.
[6]孙根年.大国优势与中国旅游业的高速持续增长[J].旅游学刊,2008(4):29-34.
[7]马丽君,孙根年,王洁洁,等.旅游推动贸易、贸易促进旅游:15年来中日出入境旅游对双边贸易的影响[J].经济地理,2010(4):696-700.
[8]TISDELL C,WEN J.Investment in China's Tourism Industry:Its Scale,Nature,and Policy Issues[J].China Economic Review,1991,2(2):175-193.
[9]TANG S M,SELVANATHAN E A,SELVANATHAN S.The Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Tourism:Empirical Evidence from China[J].Tourism Economics,2007,13(1):25-39.
[10]WALMSLEY T L,HERTEL T W,LANCHOVICHINA E.Assessing the Impact of China's WTO Accession on Investment[J].Pacific Economic Review,2006,11(3):315-339.
[11]SELVANATHAN S,SELVANNATHAN E A,VISWANATHAN B.Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Tourism:Empirical Evidence from India[J].Tourism Analysis,2012,17(8):91-98.
[12]TOMOHARA A.Japan's Tourism-led Foreign Direct Investment Inflows:An Empirical Study[J].Economic Modelling,2016,52(9):435-441.
[13]保继刚,刘雪梅.广东城市海外旅游发展动力因子量化分析[J].旅游学刊,2002(1):44-48.
[14]万广华,汤树梅.外国直接投资与旅游业:来自中国的证据[J].世界经济文汇,2006(5):49-59.
[15]蒋才芳,陈收.旅游外汇收入、FDI与国内生产总值的协整分析[J].湖南大学学报(社会科学版),2010(4):78-83.
[16]傅元海,史言信.外商直接投资的旅游服务出口创造效应与区域差异---基于中国区域动态面板的研究[J].当代经济研究,2012(3):75-81.
[17]高明.中国入境旅游规模与“外国直接投资”依赖[J].旅游论坛,2011(1):44-50.
[18]包富华,陈瑛.入境商务旅游与外商直接投资互动关系研究---以北京、上海、广州为例[J].上海经济研究,2016(6):53-61.
[19]包富华,陈瑛.FDI与入境商务旅游的关系研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2016(4):80-86.
[20]包富华,朱美宁,李文正.江浙沪FDI与入境商务旅游关系研究[J].商业研究,2017(2):88-95.
[21]包富华.FDI对入境商务旅游的影响研究---基于空间计量的实证[J].浙江工商大学学报,2017(2):90-99.
(1)参考已有文献将东部11省市划分为四大地区,即:东北地区(辽宁)、华北地区(北京、天津和河北)、华东地区(山东、江苏、上海、浙江和福建)和华南地区(广东和海南)。