退休、性别差异与居民再分配偏好
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摘要
利用2010和2013年"中国综合社会调查(CGSS)"微观数据库,在模糊断点回归设计框架中,运用参数法以及排序Probit模型识别退休、性别差异对居民再分配偏好的影响效应。结果显示:退休政策对于男性和女性的收入再分配偏好都产生了显著的正向影响,且对女性再分配偏好的影响要大于男性。居民目前的社会经济地位以及对未来向上流动性预期与再分配偏好呈现负相关关系,而受教育程度的提升会降低居民再分配偏好程度。因此,应根据现有需求及时调整退休政策,以增强政府再分配政策的有效性;同时,从教育资源区域分配、户籍制度改革、就业市场平等政策完善等方面入手,降低政府收入再分配的机会不平等程度,减轻因偏好差异过大带来的再分配政策负效应程度。
In the context of China's increasingly aging population and prominent income distribution problems, it is of great significance to evaluate the impact of retirement on residents' income redistribution preferences in order to promote redistribution, "universal participation in governance" and effectively implement redistribution policies. In the framework of Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity, the effects of retirement and gender differences on residents' redistribution preferences were identified using the parameter method and sequencing Probit model using the 2010 and 2013 "China General Social Survey(CGSS)" micro database.The results show that retirement policy has a significant positive impact on both male and female income redistribution preferences, and the impact on female income redistribution preferences is greater than that on male income redistribution preferences. Further analysis shows that residents' current socio-economic status and expectation of future upward mobility are negatively correlated with their redistribution preference, while the improvement of education level will reduce the degree of their redistribution preference. Therefore,the retirement policy should be adjusted in time according to the current needs to enhance the effectiveness of the government's redistribution policy. At the same time,starting from the regional distribution of educational resources,the reform of household registration system,and the improvement of the equal policy of the employment market,etc.,to reduce the degree of opportunity inequality of government income redistribution and reduce the degree of negative effect of redistribution policy caused by too large difference in preference.
In the context of China's increasingly aging population and prominent income distribution problems, it is of great significance to evaluate the impact of retirement on residents' income redistribution preferences in order to promote redistribution, "universal participation in governance" and effectively implement redistribution policies. In the framework of Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity, the effects of retirement and gender differences on residents' redistribution preferences were identified using the parameter method and sequencing Probit model using the 2010 and 2013 "China General Social Survey(CGSS)" micro database.The results show that retirement policy has a significant positive impact on both male and female income redistribution preferences, and the impact on female income redistribution preferences is greater than that on male income redistribution preferences. Further analysis shows that residents' current socio-economic status and expectation of future upward mobility are negatively correlated with their redistribution preference, while the improvement of education level will reduce the degree of their redistribution preference. Therefore,the retirement policy should be adjusted in time according to the current needs to enhance the effectiveness of the government's redistribution policy. At the same time,starting from the regional distribution of educational resources,the reform of household registration system,and the improvement of the equal policy of the employment market,etc.,to reduce the degree of opportunity inequality of government income redistribution and reduce the degree of negative effect of redistribution policy caused by too large difference in preference.
引文
[1]陈池波,李成豪.收入不平等、再分配偏好与居民主观幸福感研究[J].财政研究,2016(12):64-75.
[2]HIRSCHMAN A O.The change tolerance for income inequality in the course of economic development,with a mathematical appendix by Michael Rothschild[J].Quarterly journal of economics,1973(4):544-566.
[3]PIKETTY T.Social mobility and redistributive politics[J].Quarterly journal of economics,1996(10):551-584.
[4]BENABOU R.Social mobility and the demand for income redistribution[J]. Quarterly journal of economics,2001(116):447-487.
[5]ALESINA A,GIULIANO P. Preferences for redistribution[Z/OL]. IZA discussion paper No. 4056,2009[2017-12-01].https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46442589_Preferences_for_Redistribution.
[6]RAVALLION M,LOKSHIN M.Self-rated economic welfare in Russia[J]. European economic review,2002(46):1453-1473.
[7]刘华,徐建斌.转型背景下的居民主观收入不平等与再分配偏好———基于CGSS数据的分析[J].经济学动态,2014(3):48-59.
[8]ALBERTO A,FERRARA E. Preferences for redistribution in the land of opportunities[J].Journal of public economics,2005(89):897-931.
[9]马明德,陈福平.什么决定了居民对再分配的需求[J].南方经济,2010(7):15-26.
[10]潘春阳,何立新.个人收益,分配公平与再分配偏好———基于中国微观数据的实证研[J].南方经济,2012(11):3-16.
[11]CORNEO G,GRUNER H P.Individual preferences for political redistribution[J]. Quarterly journal of economics,2002(83):83-107.
[12]REHM P.Citizen support for the welfare state:derterminants of preferences for income redistribution[J].Social science electronic publishing,2005(2):54-73.
[13]PINQUART M,SCHINDLER I.Changes of life satisfaction in the transition to retirement:a latent-class approach[J]. Psychology and aging,2007(3):442-455.
[14]HURD M,ROHWEDDER S.The retirement-consumption puzzle:anticipated and actual declines in spending at retirement[Z/OL]. NBER working paper No. 9586,2003[2017-12-01].https://www.nber.org/papers/w9586.pdf.
[15]邹红,喻开志.退休与城镇家庭消费:基于断点回归设计的经验数据[J].经济研究,2015(1):124-138.
[16]雷晓燕,谭力,赵耀辉.退休影响健康吗[J].经济学(季刊),2010(4):1540-1558.
[17]罗胜.断点回归设计:基本逻辑、方法、应用述评[J].统计与决策,2016(10):78-80.
[18]LEE D S.Randomized experiments from non-random selection in us house election[J].Journal of econometrics,2008(2):142-153.
[19]THISLETHWAITE D L,CAMPBELL D T.Regressiondiscontinuity analysis:an alternative to the ex post facto experiment[J].Journal of educational psychology,1960(6):51-63.
[20]HAHN J,TODD P,VAN DER KLAAUW.Identification and estimation of treatment effects with a regressiondiscontinuity design[J].Econometrica,2001(1):132-145.
[21]李清彬.再分配倾向的决定:对既有文献的考察[J].经济评论,2011(5):119-128.
[22]ANDREONI J,VESTERLUND L.Which is the fair sex?gender differences in the gap in labor force participation rates[J].Labour economics,2001(4):409-426.
(1)为节约篇幅,仅汇报2013年数据核心解释变量的估计系数。
[2]HIRSCHMAN A O.The change tolerance for income inequality in the course of economic development,with a mathematical appendix by Michael Rothschild[J].Quarterly journal of economics,1973(4):544-566.
[3]PIKETTY T.Social mobility and redistributive politics[J].Quarterly journal of economics,1996(10):551-584.
[4]BENABOU R.Social mobility and the demand for income redistribution[J]. Quarterly journal of economics,2001(116):447-487.
[5]ALESINA A,GIULIANO P. Preferences for redistribution[Z/OL]. IZA discussion paper No. 4056,2009[2017-12-01].https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46442589_Preferences_for_Redistribution.
[6]RAVALLION M,LOKSHIN M.Self-rated economic welfare in Russia[J]. European economic review,2002(46):1453-1473.
[7]刘华,徐建斌.转型背景下的居民主观收入不平等与再分配偏好———基于CGSS数据的分析[J].经济学动态,2014(3):48-59.
[8]ALBERTO A,FERRARA E. Preferences for redistribution in the land of opportunities[J].Journal of public economics,2005(89):897-931.
[9]马明德,陈福平.什么决定了居民对再分配的需求[J].南方经济,2010(7):15-26.
[10]潘春阳,何立新.个人收益,分配公平与再分配偏好———基于中国微观数据的实证研[J].南方经济,2012(11):3-16.
[11]CORNEO G,GRUNER H P.Individual preferences for political redistribution[J]. Quarterly journal of economics,2002(83):83-107.
[12]REHM P.Citizen support for the welfare state:derterminants of preferences for income redistribution[J].Social science electronic publishing,2005(2):54-73.
[13]PINQUART M,SCHINDLER I.Changes of life satisfaction in the transition to retirement:a latent-class approach[J]. Psychology and aging,2007(3):442-455.
[14]HURD M,ROHWEDDER S.The retirement-consumption puzzle:anticipated and actual declines in spending at retirement[Z/OL]. NBER working paper No. 9586,2003[2017-12-01].https://www.nber.org/papers/w9586.pdf.
[15]邹红,喻开志.退休与城镇家庭消费:基于断点回归设计的经验数据[J].经济研究,2015(1):124-138.
[16]雷晓燕,谭力,赵耀辉.退休影响健康吗[J].经济学(季刊),2010(4):1540-1558.
[17]罗胜.断点回归设计:基本逻辑、方法、应用述评[J].统计与决策,2016(10):78-80.
[18]LEE D S.Randomized experiments from non-random selection in us house election[J].Journal of econometrics,2008(2):142-153.
[19]THISLETHWAITE D L,CAMPBELL D T.Regressiondiscontinuity analysis:an alternative to the ex post facto experiment[J].Journal of educational psychology,1960(6):51-63.
[20]HAHN J,TODD P,VAN DER KLAAUW.Identification and estimation of treatment effects with a regressiondiscontinuity design[J].Econometrica,2001(1):132-145.
[21]李清彬.再分配倾向的决定:对既有文献的考察[J].经济评论,2011(5):119-128.
[22]ANDREONI J,VESTERLUND L.Which is the fair sex?gender differences in the gap in labor force participation rates[J].Labour economics,2001(4):409-426.
(1)为节约篇幅,仅汇报2013年数据核心解释变量的估计系数。