蛋鸡养殖户专业化育成鸡选择行为分析
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摘要
专业化分工是促进中国蛋鸡养殖业提质增效和提升综合竞争力的主要路径,为扩大专业化分工的市场范围,有必要探讨蛋鸡养殖户专业化育成鸡选择行为。本文利用6个鸡蛋主产省的494个蛋鸡养殖户调查数据,运用稳健标准误Logit和ISM模型分别估计蛋鸡养殖户专业化育成鸡选择方程和解析各显性影响因素之间的关联关系和层次结构。研究结果表明,年轻、文化程度和养殖收入占比高、养殖规模大、加入蛋鸡合作社、鸡蛋市场风险认知强、认可专业化育成鸡质量和接受专业化育成鸡价格的蛋鸡养殖户倾向于选择专业化育成鸡;其中,育成鸡质量态度和价格态度是表层直接因素,经营性质、组织状况和鸡蛋市场风险认知是中层间接因素,决策者年龄、决策者文化程度和养殖规模是深层根源因素。
Specialized division of labor is the main way to improve the quality and efficiency of the laying hens industry in China and enhance its comprehensive competitiveness. Therefore,it is necessary to explore layer farmers' behavior of selecting specialization pullet for expanding the market scope of specialized division of labor. Based on 494 questionnaires data from six provinces in China,this paper uses robust standard error Logit model to estimate the equation of layer farmers' selecting specialization pullet. Then ISM model is adopted to analyze the correlation and hierarchical structure among the key influencing factors. The results show that layer farmers who are young with higher education and higher proportion of farming income,larger flock size,joining laying hens cooperative,stronger market risk perception,recognizing quality and price of specialization pullet tend to select specialization pullet. Among these factors,quality and price attitude of pullet are the direct surface factors; management nature,organizational status and egg market risk perception are the indirect middle-level factors; age,education and herd size are the deep-rooted factors.
Specialized division of labor is the main way to improve the quality and efficiency of the laying hens industry in China and enhance its comprehensive competitiveness. Therefore,it is necessary to explore layer farmers' behavior of selecting specialization pullet for expanding the market scope of specialized division of labor. Based on 494 questionnaires data from six provinces in China,this paper uses robust standard error Logit model to estimate the equation of layer farmers' selecting specialization pullet. Then ISM model is adopted to analyze the correlation and hierarchical structure among the key influencing factors. The results show that layer farmers who are young with higher education and higher proportion of farming income,larger flock size,joining laying hens cooperative,stronger market risk perception,recognizing quality and price of specialization pullet tend to select specialization pullet. Among these factors,quality and price attitude of pullet are the direct surface factors; management nature,organizational status and egg market risk perception are the indirect middle-level factors; age,education and herd size are the deep-rooted factors.
引文
1.Gunnarsson S,HeikkilM,Hultgren J,et al.A note on light preference in layer pullets reared in incandescent or natural light.Applied Animal Behavior Science,2008,112(3-4):395~399
2.Ajzen I.The theory of planned behavior.Organizational Behavior&Human Decision Processes,1991,50(2):179~211
3.Schultz T.,Transforming Traditional Agricultural,New Haven:Yale University Press,1964:22~29
4.Popkin S L.The rational peasant:the political economy of rural society in Vietnam.Foreign Affairs,1979,41(4)
5.Warfield J N.SOCIETAL SYSTEMS Planning,Policy and Complexity.Proceedings of the IEEE,1978,66(3):362~363
6.Beikkhakhian Y,Javanmardi M,Karbasian M,et al.The application of ISM model in evaluating agile suppliers selection criteria and ranking suppliers using fuzzy TOPSIS-AHPmethods.Expert Systems with Applications An International Journal,2015,42(15-16):6224~6236
7.MandalA,Deshmukh S G.Vendor Selection Using Interpretive Structural Modelling(ISM).International Journal of Operations&Production Management,1994,14(6):52~59
8.郑长山,李茜,李德岭,李春国.后备鸡专业化生产的制约因素分析及发展趋势探讨.北方牧业,2012(18):4
9.焦文捷,宁中华.我国蛋鸡青年鸡养殖节能增效调研报告.中国家禽,2016,38(22):73~76
10.西奥多.W.舒尔茨.投资专业人力资本以获取递增报酬.北京大学出版社,2001
11.曹凯云.蛋鸡分段饲养模式的理想与现实.北方牧业,2012(17):3~4
12.李莎莎,朱宁,马骥.我国蛋鸡专业化育成发展的现状、困境及对策建议.中国家禽,2018,40(19):1~5
13.亚当·斯密.郭大力,王亚南译.国民财富的性质和原因的研究(上、下卷).商务出版社,1972
14.孙世民,张媛媛,张健如.基于Logit-ISM模型的养猪场(户)良好质量安全行为实施行为影响因素的实证分析.中国农村经济,2012(10):24~36
15.唐博文,罗小锋,秦军.农户采用不同属性技术的影响因素分析---基于9省(区)2110户农户的调查.中国农村经济,2010(6):49~57
16.罗必良,汪沙,李尚蒲.交易费用、农户认知与农地流转---来自广东省的农户问卷调查.农业技术经济,2012(1):11~21
17.赵玉,严武.市场风险、价格预期与农户种植行为响应---基于粮食主产区的实证.农业现代化研究,2016,37(1):50~56
18.曲芙蓉,孙世民,彭玉珊.供应链环境下超市良好质量行为实施行为的影响因素分析---基于山东省456家超市的调查数据.农业技术经济,2011(11):64~70
19.李伯华,窦银娣,刘沛林.欠发达地区农户人居环境建设的支付行为及影响因素分析---以红安县个案为例.农业经济问题,2011,32(4):74~80+112
20.周荣喜,刘善存,邱菀华.熵在决策分析中的应用综述.控制与决策,2008(4):361~366
**鸡蛋产量=禽蛋产量×0. 85,人均鸡蛋消费量=鸡蛋产量/总人口。禽蛋产量和总人口数据来源于2018年国民经济和社会发展统计公报
***根据FAO数据测算得到
(1)生理指标来源于中国畜牧业协会2018年发布的《蛋鸡商品代雏鸡育成鸡》
2.Ajzen I.The theory of planned behavior.Organizational Behavior&Human Decision Processes,1991,50(2):179~211
3.Schultz T.,Transforming Traditional Agricultural,New Haven:Yale University Press,1964:22~29
4.Popkin S L.The rational peasant:the political economy of rural society in Vietnam.Foreign Affairs,1979,41(4)
5.Warfield J N.SOCIETAL SYSTEMS Planning,Policy and Complexity.Proceedings of the IEEE,1978,66(3):362~363
6.Beikkhakhian Y,Javanmardi M,Karbasian M,et al.The application of ISM model in evaluating agile suppliers selection criteria and ranking suppliers using fuzzy TOPSIS-AHPmethods.Expert Systems with Applications An International Journal,2015,42(15-16):6224~6236
7.MandalA,Deshmukh S G.Vendor Selection Using Interpretive Structural Modelling(ISM).International Journal of Operations&Production Management,1994,14(6):52~59
8.郑长山,李茜,李德岭,李春国.后备鸡专业化生产的制约因素分析及发展趋势探讨.北方牧业,2012(18):4
9.焦文捷,宁中华.我国蛋鸡青年鸡养殖节能增效调研报告.中国家禽,2016,38(22):73~76
10.西奥多.W.舒尔茨.投资专业人力资本以获取递增报酬.北京大学出版社,2001
11.曹凯云.蛋鸡分段饲养模式的理想与现实.北方牧业,2012(17):3~4
12.李莎莎,朱宁,马骥.我国蛋鸡专业化育成发展的现状、困境及对策建议.中国家禽,2018,40(19):1~5
13.亚当·斯密.郭大力,王亚南译.国民财富的性质和原因的研究(上、下卷).商务出版社,1972
14.孙世民,张媛媛,张健如.基于Logit-ISM模型的养猪场(户)良好质量安全行为实施行为影响因素的实证分析.中国农村经济,2012(10):24~36
15.唐博文,罗小锋,秦军.农户采用不同属性技术的影响因素分析---基于9省(区)2110户农户的调查.中国农村经济,2010(6):49~57
16.罗必良,汪沙,李尚蒲.交易费用、农户认知与农地流转---来自广东省的农户问卷调查.农业技术经济,2012(1):11~21
17.赵玉,严武.市场风险、价格预期与农户种植行为响应---基于粮食主产区的实证.农业现代化研究,2016,37(1):50~56
18.曲芙蓉,孙世民,彭玉珊.供应链环境下超市良好质量行为实施行为的影响因素分析---基于山东省456家超市的调查数据.农业技术经济,2011(11):64~70
19.李伯华,窦银娣,刘沛林.欠发达地区农户人居环境建设的支付行为及影响因素分析---以红安县个案为例.农业经济问题,2011,32(4):74~80+112
20.周荣喜,刘善存,邱菀华.熵在决策分析中的应用综述.控制与决策,2008(4):361~366
**鸡蛋产量=禽蛋产量×0. 85,人均鸡蛋消费量=鸡蛋产量/总人口。禽蛋产量和总人口数据来源于2018年国民经济和社会发展统计公报
***根据FAO数据测算得到
(1)生理指标来源于中国畜牧业协会2018年发布的《蛋鸡商品代雏鸡育成鸡》