摘要
研究选取重庆市1994—2016年进口、出口总产值、外商直接投资额和三次产业总产值统计数据为研究变量,基于向量自回归模型(VAR)、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应分析变量相关关系。研究发现:出口较之进口对产业结构优化升级有着更强的推动力;产业结构优化升级又可促进进出口提升及发展;外商直接投资于产业结构优化升级有重要作用且长期保持正响应。
Based on vector autoregressive model(VAR),Johansen cointegration test,Granger Causal testand impulsive response analysis,the study used Chongqing′s total import and export value from 1994 to 2016 by selecting foreign direct investment and the gross output value of three industries as research variables to study variable correlations.It is found that exports have a stronger driving force for industrial structure optimization and upgrading than imports.And industrial structure optimization and upgrading can promote import and export development and upgrading.In addition,foreign direct investment plays an important role as a positive response in optimizing and upgrading industrial structure.
引文
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①数据来源于《2017重庆市统计年鉴》《2016中国统计年鉴》及国家统计局,为了消除时间序列数据中可能存在的异方差问题,对各项数据进行常数对数转换。
②关于脉冲响应函数图,横轴为滞后阶数,纵轴为变量变化率;两侧虚线为正负2倍标准差偏离带;实线为脉冲响应函数,表示受到其他变量随机误差项一个标准差的冲击后,该变量现在和未来的反应程度和持续时间。