2012-2017年武汉市丙型病毒性肝炎流行病学特征及预测分析
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摘要
目的分析2012-2017年武汉市丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)流行病学特征,并预测武汉市丙肝短期发病趋势。方法采用描述性流行病学方法分析武汉市丙肝流行病学分布特征,并利用指数平滑法预测2018年武汉市丙肝发病趋势。结果 2012-2017年累计报告丙肝病例数9 175例,年均发病率15.03/10万,年平均增长率3.15%;季节效应明显,春季发病率最高;男女性别比1.33∶1;年龄呈单峰分布,50～55岁为发病高峰;在职业构成中,家务及待业人群所占比例最高,为33.26%;地区分布上,报告前四位的地区均为中心城区;使用Winters加法模型预测2018年武汉市丙肝发病率为14.76/10万,较2017年略有下降。结论 2012-2017年武汉市丙肝发病呈上升趋势,Winters加法模型能较好的预测短期丙肝发病趋势,可结合预测结果与实际流行病学特征制定科学防控策略。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological features of hepatitis C(HCV) from 2012 to 2017 in Wuhan,and to predict the short-term tendency.Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis method was used to investigate the epidemic characteristics of HCV in Wuhan.Exponential smoothing method was adopted to predict the tendency of HCV in Wuhan in 2018.Results 9 175 HCV cases were reported from 2012 to 2017 in Wuhan with the average incidence of 15.03/100 000 and the annual average rate of growth was 3.15%.The incidence had an obvious seasonal characteristics with a peak in April.The gender ratio was 1.33∶1.And the distribution of age showed a single peak,which was between 50 and 55 years old.As for the occupational structure,domestic and unemployed people accounted for the largest percentage(33.26%).The top four densely-distributed regions were all center districts.The Holt-Winters-Additive model was used to predict that the incidence of hepatitis C was 14.76/100 000 in Wuhan in 2018,which was going to decrease compared with 2017.Conclusion There has been a rising tendency of HCV in Wuhan between 2012 and 2017 and Winters Additive Method is suitable for the short-term forecasting of HCV.Accurate prediction and actual epidemiological features should be well-combined for the formulation of the prevention and control strategy.
Objective To analyze the epidemiological features of hepatitis C(HCV) from 2012 to 2017 in Wuhan,and to predict the short-term tendency.Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis method was used to investigate the epidemic characteristics of HCV in Wuhan.Exponential smoothing method was adopted to predict the tendency of HCV in Wuhan in 2018.Results 9 175 HCV cases were reported from 2012 to 2017 in Wuhan with the average incidence of 15.03/100 000 and the annual average rate of growth was 3.15%.The incidence had an obvious seasonal characteristics with a peak in April.The gender ratio was 1.33∶1.And the distribution of age showed a single peak,which was between 50 and 55 years old.As for the occupational structure,domestic and unemployed people accounted for the largest percentage(33.26%).The top four densely-distributed regions were all center districts.The Holt-Winters-Additive model was used to predict that the incidence of hepatitis C was 14.76/100 000 in Wuhan in 2018,which was going to decrease compared with 2017.Conclusion There has been a rising tendency of HCV in Wuhan between 2012 and 2017 and Winters Additive Method is suitable for the short-term forecasting of HCV.Accurate prediction and actual epidemiological features should be well-combined for the formulation of the prevention and control strategy.
引文
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[12] 刘红杨,刘洪庆,李望晨,等.差分自回归移动平均与广义回归神经网络组合模型在丙型肝炎月发病率中的预测应用[J].中国全科医学,2017,20(2):182-186.
[13] 王黎.2005-2013年南昌市丙型病毒性肝炎疫情与趋势预测[J].公共卫生与预防医学,2016,27(4):90-92.
[14] 樊盼英,孙定勇,马彦民,等.河南省丙型肝炎流行特征研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2013,34(6):557-559.
[15] 胡海洋,傅更锋,卢静,等.江苏省2005-2012年丙型肝炎流行特征分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2015,19(4):393-395.
[16] Parikh ND,Fu S,Rao HY,et al.Risk assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C in China and the USA[J].Digestive Diseases and Sciences,2017,62(11):3243-3253.
[17] 史芸萍,马家奇.指数平滑法在流行性腮腺炎预测预警中的应用[J].中国疫苗和免疫,2010,16(3):233-237.
[18] 严婧,杨北方.指数平滑法与ARIMA模型在湖北省丙型病毒性肝炎发病预测中的应用[J].中国疫苗和免疫,2017(3):292-297.
[19] 朱奕奕,赵琦,冯玮,等.应用指数平滑法预测上海市甲型病毒性肝炎发病趋势[J].中国卫生统计,2013(1):31-33,36.
[2] Sanna A,Le Strat Y,Roudot-Thoraval F,et al.Severe liver disease related to chronic hepatitis C virus infection in treatment-naive patients:epidemiological characteristics and associated factors at first expert centre visit,France,2000 to 2007 and 2010 to 2014[J].Eurosurveillance,2017,22(30):19-30.
[3] 潘华伟.天津市西青区2004-2015年丙型病毒性肝炎流行特征分析[J].中国初级卫生保健,2017,31(2):53-55.
[4] 孙海泉,肖革新,郭莹,等.中国2008-2012年丙肝流行规律及空间聚集性分析[J].中国公共卫生,2014,30(3):286-289.
[5] 刘源,刘富强,陈立章,等.湖南省2010-2015年丙型肝炎发病流行病学特征与短期发病趋势预测[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2017,21(2):146-150.
[6] Afzali H,Momen-Heravi M,Farokhzad A.Epidemiological distribution and genotype characterization of the hepatitis C virus among HIV patients in kashan,Iran[J].Hepatitis Monthly,2016,16(7):e30459.
[7] 周丽萍.丙型病毒性肝炎流行病学研究[J].中国农村卫生,2016(10):76-77.
[8] Zhang Y,Chen LM,He M.Hepatitis C virus in mainland China with an emphasis on genotype and subtype distribution[J].Virology Journal,2017,14(1):41.
[9] 姜超,刘文东,胡建利,等.丙肝疫情3种不同疾病预测预警方法比较[J].中国公共卫生,2015,31(4):390-393.
[10] 刘雷,张连生,汤恒,等.ARIMA乘积季节模型在丙肝发病预测中的应用[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2014,18(4):366-367.
[11] 杨春华.2010-2016年禹城市丙肝发病情况和流行特征分析[J].中国农村卫生,2017(10):35.
[12] 刘红杨,刘洪庆,李望晨,等.差分自回归移动平均与广义回归神经网络组合模型在丙型肝炎月发病率中的预测应用[J].中国全科医学,2017,20(2):182-186.
[13] 王黎.2005-2013年南昌市丙型病毒性肝炎疫情与趋势预测[J].公共卫生与预防医学,2016,27(4):90-92.
[14] 樊盼英,孙定勇,马彦民,等.河南省丙型肝炎流行特征研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2013,34(6):557-559.
[15] 胡海洋,傅更锋,卢静,等.江苏省2005-2012年丙型肝炎流行特征分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2015,19(4):393-395.
[16] Parikh ND,Fu S,Rao HY,et al.Risk assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C in China and the USA[J].Digestive Diseases and Sciences,2017,62(11):3243-3253.
[17] 史芸萍,马家奇.指数平滑法在流行性腮腺炎预测预警中的应用[J].中国疫苗和免疫,2010,16(3):233-237.
[18] 严婧,杨北方.指数平滑法与ARIMA模型在湖北省丙型病毒性肝炎发病预测中的应用[J].中国疫苗和免疫,2017(3):292-297.
[19] 朱奕奕,赵琦,冯玮,等.应用指数平滑法预测上海市甲型病毒性肝炎发病趋势[J].中国卫生统计,2013(1):31-33,36.
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