贸易便利化对中国省级层面农产品贸易的影响——基于中国省域贸易便利化调查数据的分析
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摘要
本文基于中国省域贸易便利化调查数据,采用引力模型考察省域贸易便利化对省级层面农产品贸易的影响。研究结果表明,省域贸易便利化对中国省级层面农产品贸易额具有显著的促进作用;东部沿海地区的农产品贸易更容易受到贸易便利化的影响;在省域贸易便利化的具体指标中,信息可获得性、单证与自动化、规费与费用等都对农产品贸易有显著影响。
Based on the survey data of Chinese provincial trade facilitation,this article uses a gravity model to examine the impact of provincial trade facilitation on agricultural trade at the provincial level in China.The results show that provincial trade facilitation can significantly promote provincial agricultural trade in China.Trade facilitation has played an important role in promoting provincial agricultural trade,especially in eastern coastal areas.Specific sub-indicators such as information availability,documentation and automation,regulatory fees and charges have a statistically significant impact on agricultural trade.
Based on the survey data of Chinese provincial trade facilitation,this article uses a gravity model to examine the impact of provincial trade facilitation on agricultural trade at the provincial level in China.The results show that provincial trade facilitation can significantly promote provincial agricultural trade in China.Trade facilitation has played an important role in promoting provincial agricultural trade,especially in eastern coastal areas.Specific sub-indicators such as information availability,documentation and automation,regulatory fees and charges have a statistically significant impact on agricultural trade.
引文
1.陈强,2014:《高级计量经济学及Stata应用(第二版)》,北京:高等教育出版社。
2.崔鑫生,2017:《中国省域贸易便利化现状分析》,《国际贸易》第4期。
3.崔鑫生、郭龙飞、李芳,2019:《贸易便利化能否通过贸易创造促进省际贸易——来自中国贸易便利化调研的证据》,《财贸经济》第4期。
4.董志强、魏下海、汤灿晴,2012:《制度软环境与经济发展——基于30个大城市营商环境的经验研究》,《管理世界》第4期。
5.刘昭洁、蓝庆新、崔鑫生,2018:《贸易便利化对中国出口贸易的影响——基于贸易引力模型的实证分析》,《现代经济探讨》第5期。
6.谭晶荣、潘华曦,2016:《贸易便利化对中国农产品出口的影响研究——基于丝绸之路沿线国家的实证分析》,《国际贸易问题》第5期。
7.威廉·格林,2011:《计量经济分析(第六版)》(上册),北京:中国人民大学出版社。
8.Anderson,J. E.,1979,“A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation”,American Economic Review,69(1):106-116.
9.Anderson,J. E.,and E. V. Wincoop,2003,“Gravity with Gravitas:A Solution to the Border Puzzle”,American Economic Review,93(1):170-192.
10.Baier,S. L.,and J. H. Bergstrand,2009,“Bonus vetus OLS:A Simple Method for Approximating International Trade-cost Effects Using the Gravity Equation”,Journal of International Economics,77(1):77-85.
11.Felipe,J.,and U. Kumar,2010,“The Role of Trade Facilitation in Central Asia:A Gravity Model”,SSRN Electronic Journal,50(4):5-20.
12.Hurd,M.,1979,“Estimation in Truncated Samples When There is Heteroscedasticity”,Journal of Econometrics,11(2-3):247-258.
13.Liapis,P.,2011,Changing Patterns of Trade in Processed Agricultural Products,OECD Publishing.
14.Liu,L.,and C. Yue,2013,“Investigating the Impacts of Time Delays on Trade”,Food policy,39(1):108-114.
15.Martinez-Zarzoso,I.,and L. Márquez-Ramos,2008,“The Effect of Trade Facilitation on Sectoral Trade”,The B. E.Journal of Economic Analysis&Policy,8(1):1-46.
16.Mo?sé,E.,and S. Sorescu,2013,“Trade Facilitation Indicators:The Potential Impact of Trade Facilitation on Developing Countries'Trade”,OECD Trade Policy Papers No. 144,OECD Publishing.
17.Persson,M.,2013,“Trade Facilitation and the Extensive Margin”,The Journal of International Trade&Economic Development,22(5):658-693.
18.P?yh?nen,P.,1963,“A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries”,Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,90:93-100.
19.Silva,J. S.,and S. Tenreyro,2006,“The Log of Gravity”,Review of Economics and Statistics,88(4):641-658.
20.Tinbergen,J.,1962,Shaping the World Economy:Suggestions for an International Economic Policy,New York:Twentieth Century Fund.
21.Tobin,J.,1958,“Estimation of Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables”,Econometrica,26(1):24-36.
22.Soloaga,I.,J. S. Wilson,and A. Mejia,2006,“Moving Forward Faster:Trade Facilitation Reform and Mexican Competitiveness”,World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3953,https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/8403.
(1)参见《中国全方位扩大农业对外开放》,http://www.chinanews.com/cj/2018/08-12/8597377.shtml。
(2)资料来源:同上。
(3)参见《2018年我国农产品进出口情况》,http://www.moa.gov.cn/ztzl/nybrl/rlxx/201902/t20190201_6171079.htm。
(1)为了简化表述,下文中所讲的“省”均指的是“省(自治区、直辖市)”。
(2)参见WTO:World Trade Report 2015,https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/wtr15_e.htm。
(3)参见OECD:Trade Facilitation and the Global Economy(2018),http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264277571-en。
(1)Anderson(1979)指出了传统引力模型缺乏理论基础的缺陷。
(2)此时,中国i省就演变成了单一的贸易主体,中国i省的经济体—时间固定效应也会被时间固定效应吸收。
(3)一般而言,各国普遍对进口产品征收关税,较少对出口产品征收关税,因此,本文模型设定中的关税是指进口关税。
(1)参见https://www.weforum.org/。
(2)参见http://www.doingbusiness.org/。
(3)参见https://lpi.worldbank.org/。
(4)参见https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/。
(1)参见https://www.indexmundi.com/。
(2)参见http://cpi.transparency.org/。
(3)为了表述上的简便,在后文中简写为“省域贸易便利化指数”。7个指标的权重、具体细分变量、指数具体的计算过程以及调查过程因篇幅限制没有详细汇报,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(4)参见https://unctadstat.unctad.org/。
(5)参见http://datatopics.worldbank.org/。
(6)参见http://www.haiguan.info/。
(7)本文研究选取的188个国家和地区是从与中国31个省级行政区发生贸易往来的国家和地区中,剔除了国家层面贸易便利化数据不可获得的国家和地区后得到的。
(8)采用2015年和2016年的平均数主要是为了与根据调查数据计算所得的省域贸易便利化指数匹配。
(9)参见http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/。
(1)参见https://wits.worldbank.org。
(2)参见http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/。
(1)参见威廉·格林(2011)。
(1)由于篇幅所限,本文在此不再赘述具体的检验过程。
(1)参见陈强(2014)。
(1)不包括叙利亚和巴勒斯坦。
2.崔鑫生,2017:《中国省域贸易便利化现状分析》,《国际贸易》第4期。
3.崔鑫生、郭龙飞、李芳,2019:《贸易便利化能否通过贸易创造促进省际贸易——来自中国贸易便利化调研的证据》,《财贸经济》第4期。
4.董志强、魏下海、汤灿晴,2012:《制度软环境与经济发展——基于30个大城市营商环境的经验研究》,《管理世界》第4期。
5.刘昭洁、蓝庆新、崔鑫生,2018:《贸易便利化对中国出口贸易的影响——基于贸易引力模型的实证分析》,《现代经济探讨》第5期。
6.谭晶荣、潘华曦,2016:《贸易便利化对中国农产品出口的影响研究——基于丝绸之路沿线国家的实证分析》,《国际贸易问题》第5期。
7.威廉·格林,2011:《计量经济分析(第六版)》(上册),北京:中国人民大学出版社。
8.Anderson,J. E.,1979,“A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation”,American Economic Review,69(1):106-116.
9.Anderson,J. E.,and E. V. Wincoop,2003,“Gravity with Gravitas:A Solution to the Border Puzzle”,American Economic Review,93(1):170-192.
10.Baier,S. L.,and J. H. Bergstrand,2009,“Bonus vetus OLS:A Simple Method for Approximating International Trade-cost Effects Using the Gravity Equation”,Journal of International Economics,77(1):77-85.
11.Felipe,J.,and U. Kumar,2010,“The Role of Trade Facilitation in Central Asia:A Gravity Model”,SSRN Electronic Journal,50(4):5-20.
12.Hurd,M.,1979,“Estimation in Truncated Samples When There is Heteroscedasticity”,Journal of Econometrics,11(2-3):247-258.
13.Liapis,P.,2011,Changing Patterns of Trade in Processed Agricultural Products,OECD Publishing.
14.Liu,L.,and C. Yue,2013,“Investigating the Impacts of Time Delays on Trade”,Food policy,39(1):108-114.
15.Martinez-Zarzoso,I.,and L. Márquez-Ramos,2008,“The Effect of Trade Facilitation on Sectoral Trade”,The B. E.Journal of Economic Analysis&Policy,8(1):1-46.
16.Mo?sé,E.,and S. Sorescu,2013,“Trade Facilitation Indicators:The Potential Impact of Trade Facilitation on Developing Countries'Trade”,OECD Trade Policy Papers No. 144,OECD Publishing.
17.Persson,M.,2013,“Trade Facilitation and the Extensive Margin”,The Journal of International Trade&Economic Development,22(5):658-693.
18.P?yh?nen,P.,1963,“A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries”,Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,90:93-100.
19.Silva,J. S.,and S. Tenreyro,2006,“The Log of Gravity”,Review of Economics and Statistics,88(4):641-658.
20.Tinbergen,J.,1962,Shaping the World Economy:Suggestions for an International Economic Policy,New York:Twentieth Century Fund.
21.Tobin,J.,1958,“Estimation of Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables”,Econometrica,26(1):24-36.
22.Soloaga,I.,J. S. Wilson,and A. Mejia,2006,“Moving Forward Faster:Trade Facilitation Reform and Mexican Competitiveness”,World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3953,https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/8403.
(1)参见《中国全方位扩大农业对外开放》,http://www.chinanews.com/cj/2018/08-12/8597377.shtml。
(2)资料来源:同上。
(3)参见《2018年我国农产品进出口情况》,http://www.moa.gov.cn/ztzl/nybrl/rlxx/201902/t20190201_6171079.htm。
(1)为了简化表述,下文中所讲的“省”均指的是“省(自治区、直辖市)”。
(2)参见WTO:World Trade Report 2015,https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/wtr15_e.htm。
(3)参见OECD:Trade Facilitation and the Global Economy(2018),http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264277571-en。
(1)Anderson(1979)指出了传统引力模型缺乏理论基础的缺陷。
(2)此时,中国i省就演变成了单一的贸易主体,中国i省的经济体—时间固定效应也会被时间固定效应吸收。
(3)一般而言,各国普遍对进口产品征收关税,较少对出口产品征收关税,因此,本文模型设定中的关税是指进口关税。
(1)参见https://www.weforum.org/。
(2)参见http://www.doingbusiness.org/。
(3)参见https://lpi.worldbank.org/。
(4)参见https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/。
(1)参见https://www.indexmundi.com/。
(2)参见http://cpi.transparency.org/。
(3)为了表述上的简便,在后文中简写为“省域贸易便利化指数”。7个指标的权重、具体细分变量、指数具体的计算过程以及调查过程因篇幅限制没有详细汇报,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(4)参见https://unctadstat.unctad.org/。
(5)参见http://datatopics.worldbank.org/。
(6)参见http://www.haiguan.info/。
(7)本文研究选取的188个国家和地区是从与中国31个省级行政区发生贸易往来的国家和地区中,剔除了国家层面贸易便利化数据不可获得的国家和地区后得到的。
(8)采用2015年和2016年的平均数主要是为了与根据调查数据计算所得的省域贸易便利化指数匹配。
(9)参见http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/。
(1)参见https://wits.worldbank.org。
(2)参见http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/。
(1)参见威廉·格林(2011)。
(1)由于篇幅所限,本文在此不再赘述具体的检验过程。
(1)参见陈强(2014)。
(1)不包括叙利亚和巴勒斯坦。